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2022 MLB Draft: Three Draft Needs For The Houston Astros
The Major League baseball draft is almost here and for the first time since 2019, the Houston Astros will have a first round pick. The ability to draft in the first round will give the Astros a little more leeway to take chances with their picks throughout the draft and they will need to think big as they try to replenish their depleted farm system.
The Houston Astros will need to address three areas of their minor league system considering where their major league roster is at the moment.
Despite the recent update on the top 100 prospects on MLB.com the Astros still only have one top 100 prospect in Hunter Brown and he barely moved up the list to number 86. Whether that’s a fair assessment or not could be up for debate, but what’s not up for debate is the Astros will need to find some gems in this draft to hurry up their rebuild of the farm system to give them future stars that will either play for them or be used in trades to upgrade contending teams now and in the future.
We’ll start with the biggest need for the Astros going into the draft which comes wrought with challenges.
The Astros need a college bat at the first base position.
Yuli Gurriel has fallen off sharply since his batting title season just a year ago. He has been a major contributor to the Golden Era Astros success both at the plate and on the field, with 2021 being his best two-way year, as he won not only the Batting Title but a Gold Glove as well.
But, at age 38, he is entering the twilight of his major league career and may be better suited as a “come-off-the-bench-to-pinch-hit” option rather than as a starting first baseman.
With that in mind the Astros should be looking for a first baseman who can be ready sooner rather than later. They don’t have time to wait on the development of a high school first baseman no matter how high their ceiling.
Currently the replacements in their system are number nine prospect Joe Perez and possibly number 14 prospect Yanier Diaz, the latter of whom is hitting extremely well in the minors though splitting time evenly between catcher and first base. Offensively, it seems like he could fill Yuli’s shoes but defensively, that’s a little less certain.
Regardless, a college first baseman would be ideal for the team given the uncertainty at the position in the near future at the major league level. The issue is that there are not a lot of top tier first basemen in general in this draft. The earliest you see the first base position even listed in the top 250 draft prospects is at number 97 with Dominic Keegan, a 21 year old out of Vanderbilt listed as both first base and catcher.
A guy who really profiles well within the Astros offensive philosophy of high contact low strikeouts is prospect number 175 Alan Roden. Roden is a 22 year old left handed first baseman/outfielder out of Creighton and here is a snippet of his scouting report per MLB.com.
He batted .387/.492/.598 and ranked first in NCAA Division I in BB/K ratio (3.6) and second in strikeout rate (3 percent). Roden has elite bat-to-ball skills and does a nice job of using the entire field while masterfully controlling the strike zone, with outstanding rates of swings and misses (9 percent, including just 4 percent on fastballs) and chases (15 percent).
A guy who walks 3.5 times as much as he strikes out and hits for a high average by putting the ball in play without chasing pitches is the exact type of hitter the Astros love. While power would be great, the Astros don’t get that much of it from Yuli anyhow. Other than 2019 when he hit 31 homers, he has never hit more than 18 in any other full season.
If you read more of Roden’s profile, some scouts see him as a 15 to 20 homer guy so he sounds like the perfect fit for the Astros and totally attainable given his 175 rating in the top 250 so the Astros could get him in the fourth or even fifth round.
The Astros need the best available left handed pitcher they can get.
The Houston Astros haven’t had a strong left handed pitcher in their entire golden era other than Framber Valdez. Their bullpen has also struggled to find a consistent lefty they can rely on, though Blake Taylor has been serviceable, as was Brooks Raley in the past.
Regardless, one of their needs in the minor league system is a left handed pitcher. Right now they only have one left handed pitcher in their top 30 prospects. It’s number 26-prospect Jonathan Bermudez who is 26 years old and right now has a 8.19 ERA this year in 14 games (10 starts) in AAA.
Obviously the preference is a college arm who could help in the bullpen sooner rather than later but the Astros do have the luxury of having young, talented pitching under control for the next three years. If they want to take a high-risk, high reward pitcher, maybe someone coming off a Tommy John surgery or coming off a down year with high upside, they should go for it.
The top left handed pitching prospects are Brandon Barriera at number 15 and Robby Snelling at number 16. Considering the Astros are in the 30th spot the person they’re most likely to get if they go with a left handed pitcher is Carson Whisenhunt.
The player they should be hoping will drop to them is number 25 prospect Connor Priellip, a 21 year old left handed starter out of the University of Alabama.
He’s the exact high-risk high reward pitcher the Astros should be looking for. He has high end stuff but is coming off of Tommy John surgery. Here is a snippet of his scouting report per mlb.com.
Prielipp’s slider is one of the most devastating pitches in the college class, sitting in the mid-80s and touching 90 mph with two-plane break that has it drop off the table as it approaches the plate. He also can elicit swings and misses with a low-90s fastball that peaks at 95 mph with run and downhill plane. He has a quick arm and could add more velocity after completing his rehabilitation from elbow reconstruction.
A lefty with a strong slider that can bear in on right handed hitters which grades at a 70 out of a scale of 80 could be a future ace. The question is whether will he return fully healthy after his Tommy John surgery. But when seeking proof you can return healthy from such an operation, we need look no further than the season Justin Verlander is having.
Prielipp is obviously not a surefire hall of famer, but if a 39 year old pitcher can come back and pick up where he left off, why can’t a 21 year old? Considering that he’s left-handed and he has potential to be an ace, the Astros can hope he drops just a little bit so they can pick him up in the first round at number 30.
The Astros could use a versatile player who can play all three spots in the outfield.
While the Astros outfield has a solid core of Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker and Jake Meyers with Yordan Alvarez getting reps in left field as well, the Astros could use a strong defensive outfielder who can play all three spots considering the their penchant for resting their starting players.
Having a solid fourth outfield option who can play any of the three spots on any given day will really help the Astros.
Obviously having a solid bat would help, but the Astros have quite a few of those locked in for at least the next few years. Brantley’s future with the team is uncertain after this year so someone who could be an upgrade defensively with the ability to hit for contact to replace Brantley’s production would be a nice upgrade.
The Astros do have Pedro Leon, who grades very well as a defensive center fielder but has been struggling with his strikeout percentage in AAA, coming in at 31 percent. That doesn’t really fit well with the Astros’ high contact approach as opposed to a three true outcome offense like the Yankees.
Colin Barber is also someone who profiles as a solid defender who can hit, but you can never have too many outfielders in your system. Someone the Astros should target in the second round is number 64 prospect Michigan outfielder Clark Elliot (coincidentally the Astros have the number 64 pick). A left handed center fielder with plus speed, here is a snippet of his scouting report per MLB.com
His biggest believers think he’ll grow into average power and see some parallels between him and Michael Brantley, while others point to his .405 slugging percentage in his first two years at Michigan and low exit velocities with wood bats and see below-average pop. He did increase his home run output from five to 16 and his slugging percentage from .428 to .630 from 2021 to 2022. There aren’t many quibbles with the rest of Elliott’s game and he draws praise for his makeup as well. His speed earns grades from solid to well above-average and plays better on the bases and in the outfield than it does out of the batter’s box. He may not man center for the Wolverines but showed enough quickness and range on the Cape for most scouts to believe he can as a pro, and his solid arm should allow him to fit anywhere in the outfield.
A guy who profiles similarly to Michael Brantley as a high contact left-handed hitter who can fit anywhere in the outfield sounds like a solid candidate to fill the shoes of Brantley himself in the near future. That style with high contact and on-base ability would tag-team well with the power of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.
The Astros getting a first and second round pick is going to be a huge boost to rebuilding their farm system and considering the holes in their system combined with what their major league needs are, these three players profile as the best options for the team to take.