Race for AL MVP: Yordan Alvarez vs. Aaron Judge

Can Yordan Alvarez unseat Aaron Judge for American League MVP favorite? Let’s take a look.

One-third of the way into the season, the Houston Astros and Yordan Alvarez are off to a commanding start. Much the same, so are the New York Yankees behind the bat of Aaron Judge. Both teams possess impressive records that suggest the possibility for season finishes in excess of 100 wins.

First, let’s take a look at why the 2022 NL MVP might be going to a pitcher, while the AL MVP likely will go to a batter—good news for the likes of Alvarez and Judge.

In the National League MVP race, a pitcher has emerged as an early contender: former Astro, Joe Musgrove. The San Diego Padre leads the majors in quality starts (10) and possesses the third lowest ERA among all major league starters with a 1.64. The 29-year-old right-hander also boasts the second most victories in the big leagues with his 6-win, 0-loss record.

But in the AL, it looks much more clear-cut at this point in the season that the MVP race is coming down to the batters. Yes, Judge leads the majors with 21 homers. But could the MVP possibly go to Alvarez?

Alvarez’s weekend in Kansas City

In addition to hitting two home runs well over 400 feet, Alvarez’s weekend in Kansas City saw his batting average and on-base percentage significantly increase. When he left Oakland on the team plane last Wednesday, his batting average sat at .272. Four days later, after finishing his series in Kansas City, his average ballooned to .295.

Friday night, Alvarez went three for five with a home run to center field. While in Kauffman Stadium, I remember how smooth and effortlessly his explosive swing appeared when he drove a 93 mile-per-hour fastball over the center field wall with a projected distance of nearly 430 feet.

As the left-handed slugger rounded the bases, he came across not arrogantly, but as cool, calm, and collected — a team player. Gurriel, who Alvarez’s blast to center drove in, gave him a handshake at home plate as they made their way back to the dugout. It really stuck then — Alvarez appears a great fit for the Astros’ team chemistry even without a bat in his hands, and really seems to be liked personally by his Houston teammates.

I remember listening to the collective buzz while in Kauffman Stadium as the crowd marveled at how fast the ball jumped off of Alvarez’s bat and made a line drive landing behind the centerfield wall. Many uttered a unified murmur — a gasp of disappointment, but also a tinge of admiration.

Saturday afternoon, though the Astros were shut out, Alvarez managed to get on base three times with a single and two walks. Then on Sunday, the right-handed slugger went three for four, a double shy of the cycle, and wound up on-base in four out of five chances after getting hit in the leg in the ninth inning.

And just when pitchers think they can retire Álvarez with their secondary offerings, Álvarez proves he is capable. Case in point, the Astro currently leads the major leagues with home runs off of changeups.

So, can Alvarez, the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year, catch Aaron Judge in the MVP race?

Sizing up two heavyweights

First, if Alvarez were to be voted ’22 AL MVP, it would be particularly impressive for another reason — the 24-year-old has yet to be named an MLB All-Star. With his prodigious offensive output unfolding the way it is, he is virtually a lock for the AL All-Star team this year.

Judge, like Álvarez, earned Rookie of the Year honors in the past, but, unlike the Astro, is a three-time All-Star, and has finished as high as second in MVP voting throughout his illustrious seven-year career.

Both Alvarez and Judge have in common that they have not played in all of their team’s games. Judge has played in 52 of the Yankee’s 54 games, slightly less than 97 percent, while Álvarez has played in only 88 percent of the Astros’ games this season.

This underscores both players’ tremendous offensive production considering neither has played in every contest. But, as Alvarez has played less than Judge, it also emphasizes that the Astro just might be closer to Judge’s offensive capability than many might realize.

Consider the following. Both players amount of plate appearances this season are not quite identical — Judge has 226 plate appearances, while Alvarez only has 202. Could there be more untapped output for Alvarez since he has batted less than Judge?

Judge’s early lead

Judge’s batting average so far this season is .313, significantly hire than Alvarez’s respectable average of .295. Moreover, Judge has 61 hits while Alvarez has 51. Judge has scored 44 runs, while Álvarez has crossed home plate 35 times.

When it comes to runs batted in, Judge holds an advantage with 42 RBI to Alvarez’s 34. Moreover, Judge has accumulated 134 total bases to Alvarez’s 108.

Too close to call

Both hitters appear neck and neck with discipline at the plate as Judge has walked 24 times on the season, just two less than Alvarez. Nevertheless, Alvarez has been more effective in this area, walking in nearly 13% of his plate appearances, while Judge walks slightly less than 11 percent of the time.

In runs batted in production, Judge has 42 RBI, while Alvarez has 34. Judge also possesses a slightly higher percentage of scoring baserunners when the Yankee has come up to bat, 14.5%, while Alvarez has scored baserunners at a less efficient 12.2% clip.

Concerning extra base hits that are not home runs, it’s a bit of a toss-up. Alvarez has five doubles and two triples on the season, while Judge has yet to hit a triple, but has notched nine doubles.

Additionally, Judge has three stolen bases, while Alvarez has yet to attempt a steal this season. But that could change if he feels healthy enough to get the green light following his leg surgery. A triple in Kansas City on Sunday might be proof enough to influence Astros manager Dusty Baker to give Alvarez a shot in the near future at swiping second.

Where Alvarez holds the advantage

Alvarez holds a slight lead in walks, and has struck out significantly less than Judge. The Astro has been fanned 33 times on the season, while Judge has struck out 58 times. Another way to look at this is that Judge has struck out in 29% of his at-bats, while Alvarez has struck out in only 19% of his.

When it comes to on-base percentage between these two monster seasons for both players, Alvarez has been better at getting on-base. The Astros’ slugger currently gets on at a .391 clip, while Judge reaches base at a .382 clip.

Additionally, Alvarez has momentum, slightly outperforming Judge over each player’s respective last 10 games. Over his last 10 games, Alvarez has launched four home runs, and notched 17 hits with nine RBI. Meanwhile, in the same amount of action, Judge has 12 hits, four homers and eight RBI. It could be that Alvarez may be gaining ground.