Projecting Future of Astros’ Top Three Prospects in 2022

Hunter Brown — September 2022 Forecast: Astros Bullpen

Hunter Brown has been magnificent at Triple A this year. And while the Astros see him as a starter in the future, he could fill Cristian Javier’s role from last year provided Javier stays in the rotation.

The Astros are in an enviable position where they actually have too much pitching. Their rotation is second in the American League in ERA by .01 to the New York Yankees — 2.83 for the Yankees to 2.84 for the Astros — and that’s despite missing last year’s ace Lance McCullers Jr.

When fully healthy, the team has seven starters in Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Jake Odorizzi, Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier.

Their bullpen is even more stellar leading the entire Major Leagues in ERA by nearly half a run at 2.43. The closest team to them is the Detroit Tigers at 2.83 and then no other team has a bullpen ERA under three.

Simply put, Brown is in the rare position of being blocked at both the starter and reliever position. It’s strange to say the least considering normally there’s five spots in a rotation where surely one can be filled, and if not, there’s seven to eight spots in a bullpen where again, normally there’s a weak link to fill in.

It’s possible Brown comes up due to someone having an injury or struggling with effectiveness, but more than likely, he’ll have to force his way on by continuing to be spectacular in the Minor Leagues.

And again, while the Astros see him longterm as starter, he’s been unhittable as a reliever. Here are his numbers side by side of starter vs. reliever:

Starter: Seven starts, 29.1 innings pitched, 3.64 ERA, 40 strikeouts against 19 walks

Reliever: Three appearances, 14 innings pitched — two games finished at five innings each, 0.00 ERA, 20 strikeouts against two walks

You read that right. He’s given up zero runs coming in from the bullpen. In two appearances, he pitched five innings to close a game out and four innings in his only other appearance in relief. There have been 50 total plate appearances against him as a reliever, and he’s struck out 20 batters which means he’s struck out 40% of the batter’s he’s faced as a reliever.

He’ll be a starter someday, but for the immediate future, his place will be as a right-handed Josh Hader come season’s end.

Korey Lee — September 2022 Forecast: Astros Minor League System.

Despite the fact that the Astros’ tandem behind the plate of Martin Maldonado and Jason Castro have been, to put it politely, less than stellar, Korey Lee has not come close to forcing the Astros’ hand in calling him up to replace them.

He’s batting .212 while striking out 55 times against 11 walks in 184 plate appearances. If your strikeout rate is 30% against Triple-A pitching, there’s no reason to assume you’ll make a jump against the best pitchers in the world.

He has shown power with seven home runs, but that’s not enough to overcome his other flaws much less supplant the veteran presence and defense Maldonado provides. I also don’t see Lee being traded for two reasons.

One is the age of the Astros’ current backstops who will sooner rather than later be out of the game. The Astros can’t afford to trade away a catching prospect who — while he may be struggling now — will be needed in the immediate future with the team.

The other reason is that because of his struggles his trade stock is lower than what it could be. He may be the Astros’ number two prospect, but he’s not in MLB Pipeline’s top 100 as he once was. There are other teams who have four or five prospects on the top 100 beating out Lee’s value.

Were the Astros to trade Lee, it would not hold as much weight as another team’s No. 3 or No. 4 prospect, and it would further deplete an already weakened farm system. Lee will be an Astros’ minor leaguer where hopefully he can raise his value for the team whether it be on the trade market or as the eventual replacement for Maldonado.

Pedro Leon — September 2022 Forecast: Situational Center Fielder Houston Astros

While Chas McCormick and Jose Siri have shown flashes of improvement, they are still both average players who provide similar offensive and defensive production.

Jake Meyers is on his way back to the team making the battle for center field even more muddled. But I can see the Astros, should Leon make strides at the plate that he needs to make before being called up, making the move to who they feel is their center fielder of the future.

There’s a reason the Astros gave him a $4 million signing bonus — the largest bonus in the 2020-2021 international class. While it’s possible he’d be used as a trade piece, that certainly seems like a lot of money to give someone to just eventually be trade fodder.

So far, McCormick and Siri haven’t run away with the job. And Meyers hasn’t shown what he can do, though he will get the opportunity to do so. Leon has not played well early on this year, but in the Cuban National Series, he hit .359 with 21 homers in 65 games as a 19 and 20-year-old.

His ceiling is extremely high, and if the center-field position continues to be underwhelming for the Astros, it’s entirely possible Leon will get his shot this year. While he may not get regular at-bats, he will be in the mix unless Meyers comes back with a vengeance, solidifying himself as the everyday center fielder.

Leon is the youngest of the four center fielders and has played in the Futures Game as well as the Arizona Fall League, two indicators of his All-Star potential. Meyers, McCormick and Siri cannot lay claim to either of those accolades.

Those three more have the appearance of at best solid players who can provide decent production from the back end of the lineup. Leon is considered to have all-star potential. With center field being the biggest sore spot for the team, it will either be Leon or a trade come September in center field.

But no matter what, all three of these players will be with the Astros organization in some capacity come September.