3 reasons why the Astros could win 100 games

The Houston Astros are off to a pretty good start to the season 24-13, atop the American League West. Justin Verlander is back and dominant as ever. Yordan Alvarez is scaring the daylights out of every pitcher he faces, and it’s been a surprisingly pleasant first part of the season.

Many of us at Climbing Tal’s Hill were vocal of the early season goals for this team looking to get back to the World Series. Which was pretty simple:

A. Stay around a .500 win percentage

B. Don’t get blasted with crippling injuries.

Houston mostly passed those tests. The Astros finished April 11-10 and then proceeded to pull off an 11-game winning streak. And until the recent injury to Jake Odorizzi, the Astros remained fairly healthy while their ace Lance McCullers Jr. inches back to the mound. Everything is going well for this Astros squad thus far.

But when will it go bad? When will the Astros have another tough stretch? When will the dog days of summer wear down this squad?

I got some news for you, pessimistic fans — I don’t think it’s happening.

For the record, I’m mostly optimistic about team performance. Some people might call me Pollyanna (it’s a book reference, look it up), some might think I’m being a homer. Heck, some might think I’m crazy and will go tell me to fly a kite — I might have one in the garage.

But here is why the Astros might be primed for a 100-win season.

The Astros’ offense will get much better.

The Astros have raised the top of the AL West during the first 40 games without getting a ton from their offense. As of Monday, the team’s batting average was .229 (19th) and its OBS was only .310 (17th) — substandard levels for this caliber of roster.

Despite those numbers, The Astros have found a way to eke out wins this by not having one everyday player hitting above .290. But as the season goes on, the club should find its offensive groove.

The Astros have a ton of great hitters with a large enough sample size to suggest that they get better as the season goes on. listed below or four key hitters first half and second half stats.

Alex Bregman – 1st half: .269 BA  (97 tOPS), 2nd half: .297 BA (tOPS 110)

Kyle Tucker – 1st half: .265 BA (89 tOPS), 2nd half: .297 BA (tOPS 118)

Jose Altuve – 1st half: .305 BA (tOPS 102),  2nd half: .309 BA (tOPS 103)

Mike Brantley – 1st half .294 BA (tOPS 99), 2nd half: .301 BA (tOPS 101)

I think it’s fair to say we’ve seen the floor from this juggernaut offensive lineup, and they should start smacking hits more frequently as the season wanes on.

The Astros’ remaining schedule is much easier.

The Astros navigated through arguably the toughest month of their schedule in April, playing their first nine games on the road, as well as matchups against the contending Toronto Blue Jays and  the feisty Seattle Mariners. Now, this arduous road known as the MLB season looks a lot less painful.

Houston has the sixth-easiest remaining schedule in the majors, when factoring in opponent win percentage, home vs, away games and travel. The only foreseeable tough stretches for this club would be a six-game road swing in New York playing both the Yankees and the Mets, the six total games against the Tampa Bay Rays and the 12 or so games left against a very competitive Los Angeles Angels.

But who else will they play? They have 19 games left against the Oakland A’s — who are likely going to be selling off players and auctioning off seats from the stands —, 15 games against the Texas Rangers — who are the resident AL West punching bag now with a bigger payroll —, seven games left against the Baltimore Orioles — who have been rebuilding since 1999 — and seven games against the Kansas City Royals — who will also likely be sellers around the trade deadline.

That’s 48 games against teams who will be severely outmatched when going up against Houston. I have the club going 36-12 against these teams.

When you add up their current record plus those 48 games against those four bottom-dwellers, the Astros project to have a record of 59-26. And even if the Astros win only a conservative 50% of those remaining 77 games (38-39), that would still put the season win total at 97.

With the Astros offense likely improving, the return of McCullers and the assumption of no major deflating injuries, I argue that Houston could easily exceed100 wins.