First, let’s look at where the Astros were at this point in the last few years.
Through 22 games in 2021, the club had the exact same record, at 11-11. The factor that is different in that situation is the Astros dealt with a few health and safety protocol players and were shuffling the lineup a lot. However, with Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr. currently missing time, I think the 2021 and 2022 seasons have a fair comparison at the current moment.
Through 22 games in 2019, the Astros sat at 13-9 through 22 games. This is only two wins better than their current spot, and the 2019 team is considered by many to be the best Astros roster ever assembled.
As you can see, it is not about how you start the season, but rather how you finish it. Even if the Astros were to have a perfect regular season, the postseason are all about who gets hot at the right time.
Just look at the 2019 Astros for example, as they started the year somewhat mediocre and finished the season with a whopping 107 wins. But they then lost to a team who were considered mediocre by many but were hot in October.
Halfway through that 2019 season, my father visited some family in Washington D.C., and could not bear to watch the Nationals on television, as he said they were playing “very poorly.” They would go on to win the World Series.
Take the 2021 Atlanta Braves for another example, as they were 44-45 at the All-Star break and got hot in the second half after a few trades and carried momentum to a World Series title.