What Astros numbers will be retired after the “Golden Years”?

We’re now in year seven of the Houston Astros‘ Golden Years with many players coming and going over that time, and a few that have lasted throughout the whole period of time. Owner Jim Crane noted that he only plans to retire the numbers of Hall of Famers, but there is a chance that some non-Hall-of-Famers could make this list after the tenure of Crane’s ownership is over.

Crane could also change his mind once the team starts losing. To help with this, I will be comparing each player’s statistics to an average Hall of Famer on Baseball-Reference, using their main four Hall of Fame tests: Black Ink, Gray Ink, Hall of Fame Monitor and Hall of Fame Standards.

Let’s talk about which Astros from this period should have their number retired with the first tier — locks.

There is no question whether or not No. 27 will be retired by the Astros in the future. Jose Altuve has been at the major-league level since 2011, and being an Astro at such a young age, he had to endure many dreadfully bad losing seasons, before finally reaching the pinnacle of the sport.

He’s a seven-time All-Star, an MVP winner and a three-time batting title winner. In the Hall of Fame tests on Baseball-Reference, he passes the Black Ink and Hall of Fame Monitor tests, but fails the Gray Ink and Hall of Fame Standards tests.

Personally, I think his stats make him a Hall of Famer, as he compares very similarly to Dustin Pedroia, who I think will be in the Hall of Fame in his first year on the ballot. The only thing that could derail Altuve is how the committee views the cheating scandal, so it is important that the Astros get a clean ring, and Altuve performs well while doing so.

Regardless of Altuve’s Hall of Fame status, I believe his number will be retired due to his loyalty to the franchise and its system, as well as how he carries himself on and off the field. The story of how he got to Major League Baseball also helps his case significantly. If he is not a Hall of Famer, Astros fans will probably force Crane’s hand in the retirement of No. 27.

Tier 3: Possibles

Justin Verlander

Verlander was traded to the Astros in 2017 and helped lead the team to a championship. He has made two All-Star teams in his time in Houston and led the league in WHIP in 2018 and 2019.

He also won a Cy Young and threw a no-hitter in 2019. He missed all but one game in 2020, as well as all of 2021 due to injury. He is back for 2022 and has been great thus far. The no-hitter, Cy Young and World Series championship is what really puts Verlander on this list.

He passes all four of the Hall of Fame tests, but mainly from his time in Detroit. If he continues his longevity in Houston, I think he has a great chance to get his number retired in Houston as well, especially if he gets his first World Series game victory while in an Astros uniform. It also depends on whether Verlander goes into the Hall of Fame as an Astro or a Tiger. Time will tell.

Carlos Correa

Correa played for the Astros from 2015 to 2021, making two All-Star appearances. This one is probably going to be the most mixed bag on this list, as some fans think that Correa should be a lock for number retirement, while other fans will say he should not have his number retired simply due to the fact that he left for Minnesota.

Personally, I think it can go either way, but I believe you cannot be mad at Correa for leaving the club. In terms of the Hall of Fame tests, he fails all four. This, combined with his departure, probably keeps No. 1 in Astros circulation.

However, the way that Correa handled the cheating scandal and the way that he stood up for the club and its players is not to be overlooked. He was also one of the hardest workers on the team throughout his tenure in Houston.

Not to mention that he was one of the most clutch hitters in postseason history. If he comes back to the team at some point, his chances will most likely improve, but that has begun to look un-probable with the emergence of Jeremy Peña — more on him later.

Alex Bregman

Bregman was drafted by the Astros in 2015 and was called up halfway through the 2016 season. Many consider him, as well as Justin Verlander, the final pieces that the team needed to win the World Series.

This is the one that I find the most interesting. Bregman is only 28, and signed through 2024 —will reach free agency at age 31. He is not close to any of the four Hall of Fame tests, but he has a lot of time as an Astro left, and he has many years left in his prime.

He finished second in MVP voting in 2019, and if he can get back to that performance on a solid basis, which he looks good so far this season, he has a great shot at the Hall of Fame. He has not truly been healthy since that season until now, so I am very excited to see what he can pull off. I also believe that either him or Kyle Tucker will become the team’s best player very soon.

Tier 3: Futures

Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña

All three of these guys have put up great numbers thus far in their careers and have great promise to be superstars very soon. If they are able to continue and stay in Houston for a long time, they have a great chance to have their number retired by the Houston Astros. I think Tucker and Peña may have the best odds, but who really knows. I am excited to see what happens.