Astros rotation evaluation: Verlander’s gem leads the way

Nine games into the 2022 season, the Houston Astros‘ rotation has shown both strengths and weaknesses. Four of the five starters — Framber Valdez, Jake Odorizzi, Justin Verlander and Jose Urquidy —  have two starts apiece, while Luis Garcia has one.

It also looks like the rotation the Astros will stay with at least for one more time through.

Team Averages – Pitches/Start: 76 | Strike %: 63.4 | Pitches per out: 5.2 | Game Score: 53

Verlander worked two solid starts, while the others have been a bit up and down, or in the case of Jake Odorizzi, mostly down. Some of my colleagues and readers may believe I feel a certain satisfaction in Odorizzi’s struggles. That’s simply not true — I’d rather the Astros win, and I be wrong, than vice versa.

Here’s a look at the rotation, two starts in, except for Garcia, the good, the bad and the ugly. For Garcia’s numbers, those provided are two-start averages.

Framber Valdez – Pitches/Start: 80 | Strike %: 59.1 | Pitches per out: 5.5 | Game Score: 62

Those were the words my son texted me when I asked how Valdez was faring in his second start. The left-hander had a really good Opening Day start that lasted a surprising 6.2 innings in Anaheim.

Valdez’s second start, against a putrid hitting Arizona Diamondbacks team, didn’t go as well, as he lasted only three innings, walking five and hitting one of the 17 batters faced. I opined last week that Valdez’s career walk number of 4.0 per nine innings pitched was likely more realistic than his first outing of the season and unfortunately that was the case here.

Stating the obvious, the Astros need Framber to be closer to start one than start two moving forward.

Luis Garcia – Pitches/Start: 71 | Strike %: 57.7 | Pitches per out: 5.9 | Game Score: 57

Garcia wasn’t terrible in his first start of the season, but given the opponent, he wasn’t very efficient either, taking 71 pitches to get through four innings and throwing just under 58% strikes.

Spring training was shorter than usual, so I’m not expecting six or more innings out of any starter not named Verlander right away, but this is not a one year issue with Garcia. Four innings in April after a short spring training isn’t the worst thing in the world.

But if this continues, as it did last year, it can lead to bullpen overuse and fatigue and in combination with Odorizzi’s struggles is not a great sign. It’s only one start, so we shouldn’t over react, but rather something to keep an eye on over Garcia’s next few outings.

Jose Urquidy – Pitches/Start: 71 | Strike %: 66.9 | Pitches per out: 5.3 | Game Score: 40

There’s an argument to be made that Urquidy pitched in some bad luck Sunday.  Sure, the Mariners erupted for five runs in the fourth, but one hit was a ball off the glove of Alex Bregman and another one that Yuli Gurriel should have handled and then a bomb.

Still, the Mariners were teeing off on Urquidy and he ended up with the worst game score of the first nine.

Not only that, but despite the fact that he walked only one and threw almost 66% strikes, Urquidy wasn’t efficient at all early and ended up giving up eight hits in four innings.

A solid first start, followed by a poor second leads to a below average first two starts. Urquidy throws strikes, but the Mariners squared many of them up and 5.3 pitches per out is about average on this staff at this point of the season.

Jake Odorizzi – Pitches/Start: 75 | Strike %: 63.8 | Pitches per out: 6.0 | Game Score: 37

Odorizzi has failed to get past the fourth inning in either of his first two starts and has been the least effective and efficient Astros starters.

The mantra during and after last season was Odorizzi’s struggles in 2021 were related to being signed late and not having a spring training. I suppose the same argument will be employed this year, but does it really matter what the reason is if he continues to be ineffective?

Currently, Odorizzi is scheduled to face Shohei Ohtani Wednesday in Houston, in what doesn’t look like an advantageous matchup for the Astros. For all the supposed deepness of the Astros’ rotation, is this really the best they can put out there every fifth day?