Astros salaries from incredible bargains to burning cash

The Astros, like every team, have good and bad contracts to varying degrees.

Any analysis of this type is full of unknowns. I’m looking at a number and saying, “is he worth that amount?” without knowing the nuances that could make a difference to the player, the Houston Astros or both.

Still these numbers are real and we’d like to think they’re tied to performance. Sometimes they are and sometimes they’re not.

In studying salaries there are several numbers attached to a player. The one I’m using here is the number applied to the 2022 luxury salary tax, because that drives a lot of the decision making, especially for the Astros.

Also, it’s easy to pick the guys on rookie contracts and say they’re the best and there’s a couple with the Astros too valuable to ignore in that range, but I didn’t want to focus specifically on those, but rather identify where the Astros exceeded expectations and where they may have missed an opportunity.

Kyle Tucker – $700,000

That’s right, the guy that batted .294/.359/.557 with 30 home runs, 92 RBI and with an OPS+ of 147 is still making the minimum. This will be the last season of that nonsense though as Tucker has three years of arbitration ahead before being eligible for free agency in 2026.

Someone’s gonna pay mightily if the Astros don’t, but you wonder if the Astros will get ahead of this one and try and get an extension done.

Yordan Alvarez – $764,600

Here’s a number for you: 153. That’s Alvarez’s wRC+ over the last three seasons, the fourth-best in baseball during that time behind Mike Trout, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis for those with at least 750 at-bats.

Like with Tucker, this number will change in 2023 as Alvarez will become eligible for arbitration. Alvarez’s WAR number will never be through the roof as a mostly designated hitter, but the value is undeniable. Last year I pointed out how little fanfare Alvarez gets from fans and the 153 number and the company in that range backs that up.

Rafael Montero – $2,725,000

In the grand scheme of things this isn’t horrible and it’s off the books after season and I also liked what I saw from Montero in his four Astro appearances last season.

However, Montero’s career numbers — 5.18 ERA, more hits allowed than innings pitched, 1.561 WHIP — and injury history are warning signs that production is not likely to equal salary.

The cost is sunk, but at what point do you give an internal candidate an opportunity and eat that cost?

To be clear, there’s a chance this one flips to at least neutral, but based on what we know today it’s difficult to see the Astros earning a positive return on investment. For comparison, Phil Maton makes $1.55 million.

Hector Neris – $8,000,000

There are those that believe in Neris, but he was all over the place for the Phillies last year, failing as a closer, then turning it around in a less stressful role including a stretch of 15 outings with a 1.23 ERA, so perhaps he’ll thrive in Houston.

While I’m open minded about his chance for success in H-Town, Neris is left handed and strikes out 11.5 batters per nine innings, so he gets a big salary, but the jury is out in my mind on the $8,000,000 price.

Jake Odorizzi – $7,833,333

No matter how you slice it, $1.305 million per win, $340,000 per start or $75,000 per inning, this is a bad deal for the Astros. Some of my Climbing Tal’s Hill colleagues believe Odorizzi will have a renaissance in 2022 and provide some value, but I’m dubious.

I’m generally a numbers guy, but Odorizzi didn’t pass the eye test or fifth inning very often in 2021. Odorizzi is under contract for 2023, too, though the Astros could buy him out for “only” $3.25 million.

Pedro Baez – $6,250,000

Guess who the ninth highest paid player on the Astros is? Once upon a time Baez was pretty good and worth a salary in this range, but it wasn’t with the 2021 Astros where the Astros got 4.1 innings from him.

I don’t want to pick on an injured player, this is more about the Astros decision to sign Baez. There’s an argument that he’s going to be on the roster due to guaranteed dollars, but that’s doubling down on a bad decision.

Baez is taking a roster spot from someone that could potentially help the team while topping out around 89 MPH. My guess is he pitches in blowouts only. The news gets worse as Baez is under contract in 2023 also, unless the Astros want to pay Baez $2,000,000 to not pitch, which I think they consider.

Astros Orbit:

Marwin Gonzalez’s minor-league contract was selected by the New York Yankees, and Jake Marisnick inked a $1.3 million deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both players made their respective Opening Day rosters.