Astros: Jake Odorizzi will have a bounce back season in 2022

With Jake Odorizzi eyeing a clean season, here are reasons why the Astros starter will have a better 2022.

As the Houston Astros began their shortened spring training season, there were some areas of immediate concern within the roster. Fans will circle at the infield with the recent departure of Carlos Correa, but I think the most pressing concern is with the starting rotation.

It’s strange to say a rotation with Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr. at the top is a concern, but Verlander is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and we know that McCullers will not be ready for the start of the season. For a team with championship aspirations, uncertainty with your rotation will make any fanbase squeamish.

I can only offer a small spec of optimism with this rotation. No, Gerrit Cole isn’t coming back to the Astros; this optimism is with a current starter — Jake Odorizzi.

Why him? Odorizzi posted a putrid 4.29 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and routinely struggled to get out of the fifth inning or sometimes even reach the fifth. He was seldom used in the postseason, as some even questioned if he even could make it back to spring training in an Astros uniform.

Like it or not, Odorizzi most likely gets at least 20 to 30 starts this season, and I think 2022 Odorizzi will be much much better than 2021 Odorizzi.

Jake Odorizzi gets a full spring training.

We as fans constantly underestimate the difficulty to assimilate to a new team in a new culture. After missing most of 2020 with injury, Odorizzi signed late with the Astros in March 2021, so he never got a spring training.

He ended up making his first start on April 9, literally one month from the time he signed with Houston. That’s a short amount of time to move to Houston, and sync up with the teams workout programs and pitch strategy.

Odorizzi delivered a dud in his first start with five earned runs on seven hits against the Detroit Tigers, which included two home runs. He then left the game early after his third start with injury and missed about a month on the the shelf.

Odorizzi returned and had a very successful June, before abruptly falling off the cliff in July and August where he posted a 5.10 ERA. Some players can walk into a new situation and thrive right away, and others need time to acclimate.

Odorizzi will come into 2022 with a full offseason with the same club, an entire spring training to work out the kinks and has no known nagging injury to slow him down. The last time he had a steady offseason like this was before his 2019 campaign, where he was an All-Star.

The right-hander took the bump Tuesday, working two innings on 27 pitches (17 strikes). Odorizzi allowed two base runners — a double and a walk — to his one strikeout.

The 2021 season was just odd for Odorizzi.

Last year, Odorizzi was above-average against right-handed hitters but struggled mightily versus lefties — yielding  a 113 tOPS and a .252 OBA. However, when you look at his overall 1,000 inning career, Odorizzi actually performs much better against lefties — 94 tOPS and .232 OBA.

Odorizzi was straight up abysmal in July and August 2021 with his 5.10 ERA and hitters posting a 117 tOPS. However, throughout his 10-year career, the right-hander has generally been pretty steady in second half with a career 3.89 ERA post All-Star break.

Odorizzi is a career tOPS of 128 when batters are ahead, which is not great, but last year was worse when his tOPS was 170 which is an .859 OPS. He gave out doubles and home runs like candy on Halloween when he trailed in the count.

But, he even struggled in favorable counts relative to his career, as he gave up a tOPS of 90, whereas he’s usually a pretty stout 75 tOPS for his career. Some of this might be linked to his inability to fool batters last year.

Odorizzi was only a 55% first-pitch strike guy, while the league average was 61%. He only generated a 25% chase rate, while league average was 32%, which is a significant drop-off from the 34% mark he generated in 2019.

Simply put, hitters did not bite on his early count stuff and stayed within the zone. Odorizzi was not sharp enough to get guys to miss and thus led to opponents barreling the ball way too much.

No doubt Odorizzi disappointed in 2021. But it wasn’t exactly a fair setup for him. He missed spring training, dealt with injury and never seemed comfortable on the mound. I think fans need to temper expectations of what Odorizzi is.

He’s not gonna be a top-three starter, and he’s not going to electrify the crowd with any elite pitches. He’s the guy that can get you five-to-six innings without giving up too much damage. And there is a reason to believe that he’s prime for a slight bounce back in 2022. And hey if it doesn’t work out, Mike Fiers is still on the free agent market.