Astros: Jake Odorizzi will have a bounce back season in 2022

With Jake Odorizzi eyeing a clean season, here are reasons why the Astros starter will have a better 2022.

As the Houston Astros began their shortened spring training season, there were some areas of immediate concern within the roster. Fans will circle at the infield with the recent departure of Carlos Correa, but I think the most pressing concern is with the starting rotation.

It’s strange to say a rotation with Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr. at the top is a concern, but Verlander is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and we know that McCullers will not be ready for the start of the season. For a team with championship aspirations, uncertainty with your rotation will make any fanbase squeamish.

I can only offer a small spec of optimism with this rotation. No, Gerrit Cole isn’t coming back to the Astros; this optimism is with a current starter — Jake Odorizzi.

Why him? Odorizzi posted a putrid 4.29 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and routinely struggled to get out of the fifth inning or sometimes even reach the fifth. He was seldom used in the postseason, as some even questioned if he even could make it back to spring training in an Astros uniform.

Like it or not, Odorizzi most likely gets at least 20 to 30 starts this season, and I think 2022 Odorizzi will be much much better than 2021 Odorizzi.

Jake Odorizzi’s secondary pitches should return.

Odorizzi’s four-seam fastball was not as effective last year, but it was his secondary pitches that really abandoned him. His split-finger and cutter saw less movement than in his previous seasons and frankly he didn’t fool many hitters.

Batters hit above .275 and slugged over .500 against both the split-finger and cutter. Odorizzi’s cutter was so ineffective that he hardly used in the second half of the season. When a pitcher can’t use all his options and must rely on his average 89 mph fastball to bail him out, that spells problems.

Now let’s compare his poor 2021 season with his 2019 season with Minnesota Twins where he was named an All-Star. That season both his split-finger and cutter generated sub .400 opponent slugging, and both were below .240 opponent batting average — those are really good rates.

When those two pitches worked for him, Odorizzi got guys to routinely chase out of the zone, got ahead of the count more often and could generate those soft contact outs. I suspect Odorizzi will regain a little bit of form on these two key pitches, which will ultimately make him a more effective in getting easy outs.

The 2021 season was just odd for Odorizzi.

Last year, Odorizzi was above-average against right-handed hitters but struggled mightily versus lefties — yielding  a 113 tOPS and a .252 OBA. However, when you look at his overall 1,000 inning career, Odorizzi actually performs much better against lefties — 94 tOPS and .232 OBA.

Odorizzi was straight up abysmal in July and August 2021 with his 5.10 ERA and hitters posting a 117 tOPS. However, throughout his 10-year career, the right-hander has generally been pretty steady in second half with a career 3.89 ERA post All-Star break.

Odorizzi is a career tOPS of 128 when batters are ahead, which is not great, but last year was worse when his tOPS was 170 which is an .859 OPS. He gave out doubles and home runs like candy on Halloween when he trailed in the count.

But, he even struggled in favorable counts relative to his career, as he gave up a tOPS of 90, whereas he’s usually a pretty stout 75 tOPS for his career. Some of this might be linked to his inability to fool batters last year.

Odorizzi was only a 55% first-pitch strike guy, while the league average was 61%. He only generated a 25% chase rate, while league average was 32%, which is a significant drop-off from the 34% mark he generated in 2019.

Simply put, hitters did not bite on his early count stuff and stayed within the zone. Odorizzi was not sharp enough to get guys to miss and thus led to opponents barreling the ball way too much.

No doubt Odorizzi disappointed in 2021. But it wasn’t exactly a fair setup for him. He missed spring training, dealt with injury and never seemed comfortable on the mound. I think fans need to temper expectations of what Odorizzi is.

He’s not gonna be a top-three starter, and he’s not going to electrify the crowd with any elite pitches. He’s the guy that can get you five-to-six innings without giving up too much damage. And there is a reason to believe that he’s prime for a slight bounce back in 2022. And hey if it doesn’t work out, Mike Fiers is still on the free agent market.