Rumor: Astros, Correa contract talks are “intensifying”

Over the entire period of the MLB Lockout, a reunion between the Astros and star shortstop Carlos Correa has looked bleak.

In November, the Houston Astros offered Carlos Correa $160 million over five years to stay, which he declined. Since, Correa has been rumored to want 10 or more years with $300 million or more attached to the contract.

On Sunday, Hector Gomez reported that contract talks between Correa and the Astros were “intensifying.” Michael Schwab later reported that the talks are not gaining traction, and fans could go to bed late Sunday night.

During the offseason, he hired Scott Boras as his agent. Boras is know to be incredibly persistent and will not settle until his client gets the number he wants.

Since his hire, Correa has been linked to many different teams including the New York Yankees, the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers, but never seemingly to the Astros.

The Cubs and the Yankees seemed to be the front runners to sign Correa. But over the weekend, the Cubs signed shortstop Andrelton Simmons, which doesn’t necessarily take them out of the running for Correa, but makes it a bit more unlikely.

The Yankees on the other hand, made a huge trade for Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, effectively pinning down their starting left-infielders for the foreseeable future, taking them out of contention for Correa.

The only other team I see in the Correa sweepstakes are the Boston Red Sox, who have been more rumored to sign Trevor Story in recent days, likely taking them out of the mix.

With the Detroit Tigers signing Javier Baez, it takes them out of the running as well, but this was pretty much known throughout the lockout.

All these teams effectively sum up their shortstop positions, while it doesn’t leave Correa with a lot of options left. This leaves the Astros as the front runners, with the Cubs still somewhat in contention. I expect him to make a deal today or tomorrow, but I could be wrong.

If the Astros re-sign Correa, what would the contract look like?

This is where things get tricky. We know that Correa wants a 10-year deal, somewhere in the ballpark of what Corey Seager got, $325 million, but we also know that the Astros will not give him this.

The Cubs theoretically could, but I kind of doubt that they would. I think that the most the Astros would offer Correa would be somewhere in the ballpark of a max contract, but for between five to seven years. This is what I assume Correa would sign, but there is also one more variable on the board.

For any long-term contract Correa would sign, a certain amount of it would have to go to his old agent before Boras. If he were to sign a one-year contract, that same cut would go to his old agent, but any contract signed after that would not.

The other thing to consider here is that if he is not getting the amount of money that he wants, he could sign a one year deal, prove his back is healthy, prove his play on the field, and potentially have another shot at winning a ring in Houston, before signing a long term deal elsewhere.

The other sign of that coin, is that if he underperforms or gets injured in that single year, that would thwart any chance of getting the deal he wants. It’s a major risk, but it could prove a major reward for Correa.

The next few days should be interesting, but I think Correa stays in Houston for at least one more season, at least a tweet from Martin Maldonado makes me think so.