Will Jose Altuve be an Astro for life?

Will Jose Altuve be an Astros player for his entire career?

It’s becoming a more and more rare thing that a player stays with the same franchise their entire career. Even teams that are financial powerhouses struggle to keep players, if for no other reason than the fact that they run out of use for the aging star and can afford higher-priced, younger talent making their lifelong veteran disposable.

Houston Astros fans have already seen how hard it is to try and keep a player once they hit free agency, seeing George Springer go to the Toronto Blue Jays and now what seems like a foregone conclusion that Carlos Correa is signing anywhere but Houston once the lockout ends.

There is a glimmer of hope that there will be another statue with an “H” on it in the Hall of Fame along with a statue outside Minute Maid Park alongside Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell. Jose Altuve is that glimmer of hope.

The Astros already jumped the first hurdle of keeping Altuve for life by signing him to a long-term deal skipping his first chance to test free agency. There are still three hurdles in the way of Altuve staying with the team his whole career.

Productiveness

The first hurdle will be what Altuve’s productiveness is by the year 2025, when he will be 34-years-old and able to test free agency for the first time in his career. Will he be productive enough for the Astros to re-sign him? And at what cost? And for how long?

Surprisingly for a guy who’s been known for his bat to ball skills throughout his career, developing power later on, Altuve tied his career high in home runs at 31 this past year. His batting average of .278 however was the lowest of his career in a full season since his rookie year when he hit .276.

Altuve loves fastballs but as he ages and his bat speed slows, those fractions of seconds can be the difference between home runs and foul balls or even complete swings and misses which could severely cut his ability to produce.

There are pluses on Altuve’s side such as his speed which can make up for some missed pitches beating out ground balls on infield hits. Then again that speed will slow with age as well.

The biggest plus for Altuve being productive late into his career is how intelligent he is and his ability to read pitchers and adjust. Look no further than his two at-bats against Chad Green this past year where he hit game winning home runs.

In Yankee stadium in May, with runners on second and third down and down two runs, Altuve sat on a neck high fastball in a 3-2 count yanking it out to left field for a three run home run to give the Astros a 5-3 lead that would hold and give them the win that day.

About a month later in Minute Maid Park Chad Green was on the mound again and Altuve had a 1-1 count with runners on first and third this time.

There was a mound visit. Altuve sat off-speed and hit a slider at his ankles out to left field for yet again, a three run home run that gave the Astros the win.

His baseball IQ is enough to counteract at least some of the inevitable effects aging will have on his physical abilities and his leadership could be enough for the Astros to sign him even in his declining years.

Finances

There are a lot of factors to consider in this category. Not just how much money Jose Altuve will want and for how many years, but will Altuve’s demands fit with the demands of younger and most likely more productive players.

2025 is not just the end of Altuve’s current contract, but Alex Bregman’s as well. Bregman is a fantastic fielder with great power and terrific batting eye who is also four years younger than Altuve.

Will Bregman’s demands be more than the Astros are willing to pay? Maybe rather than a six year deal with Bregman the Astros settle for a three year deal with Altuve and spend money elsewhere.

Looking into the future, it is highly unlikely the Astros keep both Altuve and Bregman in 2025 considering 2026 is the free agency year for Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Urquidy AND Framber Valdez.

If the Astros want a shot at keeping at least two of those guys they’ll have to say goodbye to at least one of Bregman or Altuve and Altuve may make more sense to keep since at age 34 he’ll be cheaper and have a shorter contract length.

This is all not counting hypothetical big free agent signings the Astros may incur in their quest for another World Series title, but it should be pretty clear that by 2025 the money being spent on Justin Verlander, Yuli Gurriel and Michael Brantley will be free (or significantly cheaper should those players remain productive in their late 30’s, early 40’s.)

Between Bregman and Altuve, Altuve will be the cheaper option for a team trying to remain competitive. The timing financially and career-wise could work for Altuve staying.