Will Jose Altuve be an Astro for life?

Productiveness

The first hurdle will be what Altuve’s productiveness is by the year 2025, when he will be 34-years-old and able to test free agency for the first time in his career. Will he be productive enough for the Astros to re-sign him? And at what cost? And for how long?

Surprisingly for a guy who’s been known for his bat to ball skills throughout his career, developing power later on, Altuve tied his career high in home runs at 31 this past year. His batting average of .278 however was the lowest of his career in a full season since his rookie year when he hit .276.

Altuve loves fastballs but as he ages and his bat speed slows, those fractions of seconds can be the difference between home runs and foul balls or even complete swings and misses which could severely cut his ability to produce.

There are pluses on Altuve’s side such as his speed which can make up for some missed pitches beating out ground balls on infield hits. Then again that speed will slow with age as well.

The biggest plus for Altuve being productive late into his career is how intelligent he is and his ability to read pitchers and adjust. Look no further than his two at-bats against Chad Green this past year where he hit game winning home runs.

In Yankee stadium in May, with runners on second and third down and down two runs, Altuve sat on a neck high fastball in a 3-2 count yanking it out to left field for a three run home run to give the Astros a 5-3 lead that would hold and give them the win that day.

About a month later in Minute Maid Park Chad Green was on the mound again and Altuve had a 1-1 count with runners on first and third this time.

There was a mound visit. Altuve sat off-speed and hit a slider at his ankles out to left field for yet again, a three run home run that gave the Astros the win.

His baseball IQ is enough to counteract at least some of the inevitable effects aging will have on his physical abilities and his leadership could be enough for the Astros to sign him even in his declining years.

Finances

There are a lot of factors to consider in this category. Not just how much money Jose Altuve will want and for how many years, but will Altuve’s demands fit with the demands of younger and most likely more productive players.

2025 is not just the end of Altuve’s current contract, but Alex Bregman’s as well. Bregman is a fantastic fielder with great power and terrific batting eye who is also four years younger than Altuve.

Will Bregman’s demands be more than the Astros are willing to pay? Maybe rather than a six year deal with Bregman the Astros settle for a three year deal with Altuve and spend money elsewhere.

Looking into the future, it is highly unlikely the Astros keep both Altuve and Bregman in 2025 considering 2026 is the free agency year for Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Urquidy AND Framber Valdez.

If the Astros want a shot at keeping at least two of those guys they’ll have to say goodbye to at least one of Bregman or Altuve and Altuve may make more sense to keep since at age 34 he’ll be cheaper and have a shorter contract length.

This is all not counting hypothetical big free agent signings the Astros may incur in their quest for another World Series title, but it should be pretty clear that by 2025 the money being spent on Justin Verlander, Yuli Gurriel and Michael Brantley will be free (or significantly cheaper should those players remain productive in their late 30’s, early 40’s.)

Between Bregman and Altuve, Altuve will be the cheaper option for a team trying to remain competitive. The timing financially and career-wise could work for Altuve staying.

Team Standing

This is the hurdle that is out of anyone’s control. The Astros are still currently considered a powerhouse. But the rest of the American League West, other than the Oakland A’s, got better.

The Seattle Mariners were surprisingly competitive last year which made them sign the reigning Cy Young award winner in Robbie Ray.

The Los Angeles Angeles were ravaged with injuries this past season but a healthy lineup of Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon is as scary a middle of the order as you can have not to mention singing Noah Syndergaard and his 100 mph fastball.

And the Texas Rangers spent half a billion dollars on their middle infield signing Corey Seager and third place finisher in MVP voting Marcus Semien to their squad a long, LONG time.

If by  2023 or 2024, the Astros are in the middle of a season where they have no shot at making the playoffs, Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve will almost assuredly be traded.

They would have to be doing remarkably terrible for that to happen mid-season, especially with the added wild card spot giving hope to nearly half the league at the all-star break.  But things can crumble quickly.

In 2018, the Houston Rockets were within a game of the NBA Finals dethroning the Golden State Warriors in the process. James Harden was assuredly a Rocket for life. Three years after that James Harden was demanding a trade and the Rockets began a rebuild that they’re still currently in.

Hopefully the Astros remain competitive, spend wisely and Altuve remains productive so we can all see someone remain in an Astros uniform their whole career for the first time since our last great second baseman Craig Biggio. Altuve and Astros fans both deserve it.