Breaking down the future of the Astros starting rotation

With the Houston Astros season upcoming, the question of the starting rotation looms heavy over fans heads. Two of the top talented pitchers on staff were injured throughout most or all of the postseason.

With no Zack Greinke, the Astros are left with recently re-signed Justin Verlander at the ace hole, Lance McCullers Jr. is second and from there it’s the trio of young pitchers: Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy.

The real question is, where will the Astros’ rotation be in one to two years?

The Ace

Verlander is the Astros ace and has been for the past several seasons. With Greinke’s departure the top talent and experience belongs solely to Verlander who is on a one year context with a players option for more.

With that said that is not a very good position for the future Astros to be in, with McCullers being the only other true veteran pitcher who is a number one or two pitcher at his best.  The question must be addressed quickly, who will be the Astros ace in 2023 and 2024?

Verlander will be hard to replace, who last full season he pitched notched 21 wins and a 2.58 ERA leading to a Cy Young award.

Number Two

McCullers is as good as any number two pitcher around the league but with an injury history, he hasn’t been the most reliable. The right-hander is coming off his best year as a starter with 13 wins and a 3.16 ERA.

McCullers pitches can be devastating when he is on and the Astros have him under contract through 2026. He remains the most consistent and highest performing player guaranteed to be on the Astros next season and beyond and in the top two spots in the rotation.

The Astros’ rotation three through five.

Where the biggest question lies is in our new comer pitchers. Luis Garcia’s rookie season impressed with his 11 wins and 3.48 ERA.

Garcia’s contract is to be determined pending arbitration as are the following two starters, Valdez and Urquidy. The other big question is with more tape out to study Garcia, will he experience the sophomore slump or ramp up even more, building on last year.

Valdez is the bigger question for the spot in the rotation but with more upside as compared to Garcia. Valdez pitched his second full season but first long season and had plenty to show for it.

The left-hander’s second season didn’t disappoint, as he tossed his way to a 3.14 ERA over 22 starts and an 11-6 record. Valdez lost some steam in the K/9 category coming down from 9.7 to 8.4 and increased slightly his home runs per nine innings from 0.6 to 0.8.

Will Valdez show out this year and that he could potentially be a number two starter if Verlander leaves or will he be a constant number two or three starter?

The Astros could use another solid horse in the rotation and Framber could be their guy, this season will really show what he can or perhaps cannot be for the rotation.

Lastly, the 2020 postseason hero Urquidy who lost two months this past season to injury remains another big question. Urquidy has shown great upside and his 3.62 ERA and 8-3 record last season prove that fact yet Urquidy has never shown out in back to back years.

Urquidy’s five starts in 2020 were not a large enough sample size to say what he will be however on the positive side he has remained consistent with giving up around one home run a game.

One last plug for Urquidy is his WHIP has continuously dropped in his three seasons and in particular he keeps his walks down which greatly aids his ERA which could put him in the top half of the rotation.