Astros: 5 Candidates for Regression in 2022

While I generally err on the bright side when it comes to the Houston Astros, it’s not always wise to overlook the cases where players could regress after good, or even career, years.

Using a mix of advanced metrics, 2022 projections, age, history and usage, I identified five Astros that could regress to varying degrees in the coming season.

Chas McCormick – .257 BA, 14 HR, 47 RBI

Chas McCormick surprised everyone by mashing 10 home runs prior to the All-Star break as a part-time player, before the power mostly disappeared and by year’s end was playing second fiddle to Jake Meyers and then split time with Jose Siri in the postseason after Meyers’ injury.

McCormick’s 2021 actual numbers were higher across the board than his expected numbers and that, along with his declining second half power, leads me to believe he could be in for some regression.

The expected stats for 2021 showed 33 points lower in batting average, 23 in slugging and 15 in wOBA. Those are significant deviations.

The good news is defense is generally more consistent, especially for the younger guys and McCormick flashed leather at all three outfield positions and I don’t see that changing.

Yuli Gurriel –  .319, 15 HR, 81 RBI

I expect some pushback on this one because everyone loves Yuli and he had a career year, which is fresh in the fans minds.

Gurriel appears ageless, but expecting a 38 year old (in June) who hit 20 points higher than he ever has in his Major League career to duplicate that feat is not a wise bet in my opinion.  That said, the right-hander could regress and still hit .300.

There’s also this: Gurriel’s expected batting average was 48 points below his actual average, which indicates the stars were aligned for Gurriel, at least to some degree, in 2021.

Even with the monster season, Gurriel is a career .293 hitter and I would expect his 2022 to be closer to that number than .319.

Jose Urquidy – 8-3, 3.62 ERA

Jose Urquidy was solid in his 20 starts in 2021, but some of the underlying metrics indicate that a small regression wouldn’t be a surprise.

Urquidy’s actual batting average against was 26 points lower than the xBA, actual slugging 28 points below the xSLG, wOBA 24 points below xWOBA and his ERA was 0.36 points below the xERA.

While that expected batting average equals the actual league average (.244), it would have been the third worst on the Astros’ staff in 2021 and the slugging percentage would have been second worst on the team.

It may seem like Urquidy has been around forever, but he’s actually only pitched 177 Major League innings, so while he generally outperformed his expected numbers so far, with his relatively few innings at this level a regression wouldn’t be a total shock.

Jose Altuve – .278, 31 HR, 83 RBI

Jose Altuve has 31 home runs in each of his last two full seasons, but the 31 in 2021 took 601 at-bats while the 31 in 2019 took 500. While Altuve’s actual slugging percentage was .489 last season, his expected slugging was only .420, suggesting closer to 25 home runs than thirty one.

Altuve also had a precipitous drop in batting average from .298 in 2019 to .278 last season and the expected batting average for 2021 was even lower at .261.

Outside of the pandemic season of 2020, Altuve has never been within 15 points of .261 (.276 in his rookie season), but now Altuve is 2+ calendar years removed from batting in the .300 range (.298 in 2019).

So, it’s natural to think the .270 range may be the new normal for the second baseman that will turn 32 in May.

Other Astros’ News:

Assistant trainer Lee Meyer has been hired away by the Miami Marlins, where he becomes the team’s head athletic trainer. Meyer was with Houston for five seasons.