While I generally err on the bright side when it comes to the Houston Astros, it’s not always wise to overlook the cases where players could regress after good, or even career, years.
Using a mix of advanced metrics, 2022 projections, age, history and usage, I identified five Astros that could regress to varying degrees in the coming season.
Chas McCormick – .257 BA, 14 HR, 47 RBI
Chas McCormick surprised everyone by mashing 10 home runs prior to the All-Star break as a part-time player, before the power mostly disappeared and by year’s end was playing second fiddle to Jake Meyers and then split time with Jose Siri in the postseason after Meyers’ injury.
McCormick’s 2021 actual numbers were higher across the board than his expected numbers and that, along with his declining second half power, leads me to believe he could be in for some regression.
The expected stats for 2021 showed 33 points lower in batting average, 23 in slugging and 15 in wOBA. Those are significant deviations.
The good news is defense is generally more consistent, especially for the younger guys and McCormick flashed leather at all three outfield positions and I don’t see that changing.