Astros: Five Replacement Options for Carlos Correa

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Despite the end of the Major League Baseball lockout being nowhere in sight, it hasn’t stopped all the Astros fans’ speculation about what to do if and when Carlos Correa leaves.

There are options available throughout the farm system as well as free agency, though it is pretty much universally agreed whatever replacement the Houston Astros get will not be near the level of talent and production we’re used to from Correa.

The Astros have five choices for who can fill in the hole left by Correa’s departure.

The Astros weren’t willing to sign the big deals like their division rivals the Texas Rangers did handing out seven and 10-year deals to Marcus Semien and Corey Seager (respectively). Which leaves them with free agents who aren’t looking for more than six years or an internal replacement option. Here are the Astros choices.

The Astros could sign Trevor Story.

There are little-to-no options left on the free agent market for shortstop after the Rangers swiped up the next best options behind Correa for themselves. But, Trevor Story is no slouch.

In fact if you look at all the free agents this year, both signed and unsigned, Story has the second highest WAR over the past three years at 13.7 (Only behind Marcus Semien’s 15.9). That’s higher than Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Freddie Freeman and yes the person he would be replacing, Carlos Correa.

The main knock on Story is his home-road splits. Colorado Rockies hitters are of course harder to judge based on the fact they play where the air is thin and the ball flies as a result. But Story seems to be especially dependent on it. Here are his home-road splits over his career as well as in 2021.

Career:

Home – 375 games, BA/SLG/OPS .303/.603/.972, 100 doubles, 21 triples, 95 home runs.

Road – 370 games, BA/SLB/OPS .241/.442/.619, 80 doubles, six triples, 63 home runs.

2021:

Home – 71 games, BA/SLG/OPS .296/.515/.880, 20 doubles, three triples, 11 home runs.

Road – 71 games, BA/SLG/OPS .203/.426/.717, 14 doubles, two triples, 13 home runs.

With no drastic difference in games played between home and road, Story clearly hits better at Coors. How much of that is a product of where he plays? That’s the roll of the dice you take by signing him and the main risk associated with committing to that decision.

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

The Astros could promote prospect Jeremy Pena.

This is the option most think the Astros are going to go with, at least for the time being. Pena was known as a defense-first shortstop through most of his minor league career, but he came back from an injury with a fury, hitting 10 home runs in his last 27 games of 2021.

While it tantalized Astros fans with the idea that Pena suddenly figured out how to hit for power, it’s more likely an anomaly. In the Dominican Winter League, he hit two home runs in 30 games, which extrapolated to 162 is hovering around 10 home runs which is more of a reasonable expectation.

While his defense is exceptional, there’s considerable drop-off offensively from the guy who was second in WAR amongst all MLB position players last year. Not to mention the long history of “Can’t Miss” prospects “missing.”

People were loathe to give up the Derek Fishers’ and Francis Martes’ of the world. We’d now relish the idea of including them in a package in return for a reliever or strong starter.

While those 10 end of season home runs were exciting, Pena is closer to an Adam Everett who can hit for average. Not terrible, but definitely not Correa.

The Astros could promote prospect Pedro Leon.

Whatever the inverse of Pena is, that would be Pedro Leon. He’s the Astros number two prospect following in the trend of talented Cubans coming through the pipeline. He was an outfielder up until this past year when the Astros converted him to shortstop.

This was more the writing on the wall that Correa was gone than anything. Because while there is an open spot in the outfield to play alongside Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker (Yes, Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick are serviceable there but Leon has more upside), the Astros still chose to try him out at shortstop.

That also could be considered an indictment of Jeremy Pena’s ability to hit for power. I mean why move Leon to shortstop if you believed in Pena’s bat.

The Astros also have fast-tracked him in the minors having him go from rookie ball to triple-A within one season. That’s quite the accelerated timeline, even for a 23 year old.

The questions surrounding Pena are the opposite for Leon. Can he play a solid defensive shortstop?

There’s no question Correa’s glove and arm saved the Astros in plenty of tight situations. Can Leon make up for that?

Whether the Astros do promote Leon or Pena, they both don’t possess the same leadership qualities Correa brings. They’d be starting from the ground level requiring Altuve and Bregman to bear more of the veteran load.

The Astros could sign Kris Bryant and move Alex Bregman to shortstop.

It’s been so long since Alex Bregman played shortstop some Astros fans may have forgotten that’s actually his natural position.

This scenario is a long shot for sure. While Bryant may not want the same amount of years as Correa (He’s probably closer to the six year contract range) the money will probably be similar if not equivalent.

After all he does have something Correa doesn’t have, which is an MVP award.

Once again though, this would mean the Astros take a defensive hit on the left side of the infield as a Correa-Bregman tandem of two talented shortstops manning the field is not as talented defensively as a Bryant-Bregman tandem.

The plus is that Bryant provides a versatility Correa does not. While third base is Bryant’s primary position, he can also play all three outfield positions and has even played a little bit of first base.

With the Astros penchant for resting players (and the need to with aging veterans Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel), he could provide much needed rest without the Astros sacrificing too much bringing Aledmys Diaz off the bench to fill whatever vacant spot is left based on the matchups.

That said the Astros most likely aren’t going to spend big on Bryant if they aren’t willing to go big on Correa.

The Astros could explore the trade market.

There’s really not a lot available that the Astros could trade for that would be much of an upgrade over a Jeremy Pena/Pedro Leon experiment. The best shortstops who have one or two years left on their contracts are all on contending teams.

There’s not a lot of chance the Atlanta Braves would move Dansby Swanson after having just won the World Series nor would the Dodgers trade Trea Turner considering one of the main reasons they traded for him was insurance in case Corey Seager left.

Brandon Crawford’s San Francisco Giants had the best record in the MLB last season and despite Buster Posey’s retirement I don’t see the Giants suddenly becoming sellers.

And while Xander Bogaerts has a player option he’s sure to decline next year, the Red Sox are also not going to look to unload him unless at the midway point of the season they’re far out in fourth place as the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees and Tampa Rays are crushing them.

So who is available? It’s not pretty. Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar play for teams that are closest to being non-competitive as it seems the Seattle Mariners may have leapfrogged the A’s and the Royals are still a bit away from contention.

But neither of those guys profile any better than a Jeremy Pena or Pedro Leon so it would seem silly to trade away even low level prospects when you can most likely get comparable production from your prospects.

dark. Next. What if the CTH Staff Became a Baseball Team?

In the end, there’s no one that can replace Carlos Correa. He’s the entire package when healthy. Offense, defense, leadership, comes up big in big situations. But considering it looks less and less likely he re-signs with the Astros, these are the best alternatives.

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