Deep Dive at Projecting Astros Bullpen Contributors (Part Two)

Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
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In part two of this series, we continue our dive into the Houston Astros‘ 2022 bullpen looking at some detailed numbers and potential roles for the remaining bullpen candidates.

These numbers can be found in the Bill James handbook, which I’ve been reading this offseason and highly recommend.

Check out the book for detailed definitions, but here are some terms used:

Early Entry: Sixth inning or earlier

Leverage Index: Swing in win probability (average is 1.0)

Saves:

  • Easy:1 inning or less, first batter not tying run
  • Regular: Any save that is not easy or tough
  • Tough: Tying run on base when enters.

Clean Outing: Not charged with a run (earned or unearned) and does not allow inherited runner to score.

Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sportsier and
Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sportsier and /

Enoli Paredes

After unexpectedly contributing in the shortened 2020 season, Parades struggled through injury and ineffectiveness in his 12 outings in 2021, registering a leverage index of 1.1. Paredes was used as the long man four times, allowed three of five inherited runners to score and accumulated a 6.23 ERA.

On the bright side seven of his twelve appearances were considered clean and he registered two holds.

Does Parades have a future in Houston?

It’s difficult to picture that right now, but once the season begins and injuries become a thing, there’s a chance Parades is called upon to throw some innings.

Bryan Abreu

Abreu is still only 24-years-old (turns 25 in April) and there’s hope he can contribute for the Astros in 2022. I’m a bit surprised at his 1.2 leverage index, but Abreu did have five save opportunities during the year and was only one of five, converting his one easy opportunity and going zero for two each in regular and tough chances.

Just over half of his 31 appearances were considered clean, which is not optimal, and he recorded seven holds and a 5.75 ERA.  Abreu is young enough and has shown enough to be given another chance, but you have to wonder when and if the light will go on.

Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports /

Ryne Stanek

Stanek had an outstanding 2021 season and the Astros are perhaps looking for him to take the next step in 2022 as Ryan Pressly’s contract expires after the season, while  Stanek becomes arbitration eligible after the season before becoming a free agent after 2023.

Of the returning bullpen pieces, Stanek is second in leverage at 1.4 and his 72 appearances include being used on consecutive days twelve times, 51 clean appearances, allowing only 3-of-19 inherited runners to score, twenty-one holds and a 3.42 ERA.

Stanek was two for two in easy save situations, but zero for two in regular save situations.

Hector Neris

Call me skeptical. Neris’ numbers with the Philadelphia Phillies are conflicting and one has to wonder what role he’s destined for in Houston.

While Neris recorded fifteen saves and a leverage index of 1.5, there were seven blown saves, including two of the easy variety, four regular and one tough. Neris also allowed 40% of inherited runners to score.

On the bright side he’s durable, having been used on consecutive days 18 times and Neris registered 52 clean appearances, eleven holds and a 3.63 ERA.  Perhaps Neris thrives in a seventh inning role in Houston, but that remains to be seen.

Ryan Pressly

Not surprisingly, Pressly registered the highest leverage index for any Astros reliever at 1.7. Despite 64 appearances, Pressly only faced ten inherited runners and allowed only two of those to score.

Converting twenty-six of twenty-eight save opportunities, Pressly was a perfect 14 for 14 in easy save situations and twelve of fourteen in regular chances.

It seems a bit unusual that as a closer Pressly faced zero tough close situations (by this definition) since the team totaled 14 (and was 0 for 14). Pressly registered 49 clean outings and pitched on consecutive days 17 times. Pressly’s in the final year of a contract that will pay him $10,000,000 in 2022 before becoming an unrestricted free agent.

Next. A Performance Overshadowed by an All-Time Great. dark

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