Deep Dive at Projecting Astros Bullpen Contributors (Part One)

In this two-part series, we’ll take a dive into the Houston Astros‘ 2022 bullpen including some lesser known numbers and potential roles for those returning and the new members.

These numbers can be found in the Bill James handbook, which I’ve been reading this offseason and highly recommend.

Check out the book for detailed definitions, but here are some terms used:

Early Entry: Sixth inning or earlier

Leverage Index: Swing in win probability (average is 1.0)

Saves:

• Easy:1 inning or less, first batter not tying run
• Regular: Any save that is not easy or tough
• Tough: Tying run on base when enters.

Clean Outing: Not charged with a run (earned or unearned) and does not allow inherited runner to score.

Brandon Bielak

The majority (14) of Bielak’s 26 relief appearances were of the long variety and on thirteen of those occasions he entered before the sixth inning, resulting in a leverage index of 0.7.  Bielak was only used on consecutive days twice and allowed 4-of-12 inherited runners to score.

Bielak was one for two in save opportunities (both regular) and had only 12 clean appearances out of his 26 total relief opportunities.  With the departure of Kendall Graveman (1.8 leverage index) and Brooks Raley (1.1), Bielak could be in for higher leverage situations in 2022.

Blake Taylor

A leverage index of 1.0 means Taylor appeared in average situations for relievers over the course of 2021. In 51 appearances, Taylor was used in back to back situations 10 times and appeared in the sixth inning or earlier ten times.

Taylor allowed 8-of-26 (31%) of inherited runners to score and was 0-for-5 (three regular, two tough) in save opportunities. Brooks Raley got a lot of the ink, but Taylor had just as many clean outings (35) as Raley in seven fewer appearances, with a superior ERA and allowed a lower ratio of inherited runners to score.

Cristian Javier

A valuable long man when used in that role (16 times in 27 relief appearances) contributed to Javier’s 1.0 leverage index. Javier struggled out of the pen overall with occasional strong outings as only 10 of his relief appearances were considered clean.

Javier was two of four in save opportunities, going one of two on easy saves, one for one on regular and blowing the only tough opportunity presented.

Sometimes what you remember doesn’t match the numbers, but in Javier’s case they largely do: He was never used back to back and there’s a reason the Astros prefer he start an inning fresh, as 5-of-10 inherited runners scored when Javier entered the game.