Deep Dive at Projecting Astros Bullpen Contributors (Part One)

In this two-part series, we’ll take a dive into the Houston Astros‘ 2022 bullpen including some lesser known numbers and potential roles for those returning and the new members.

These numbers can be found in the Bill James handbook, which I’ve been reading this offseason and highly recommend.

Check out the book for detailed definitions, but here are some terms used:

Early Entry: Sixth inning or earlier

Leverage Index: Swing in win probability (average is 1.0)

Saves:

• Easy:1 inning or less, first batter not tying run
• Regular: Any save that is not easy or tough
• Tough: Tying run on base when enters.

Clean Outing: Not charged with a run (earned or unearned) and does not allow inherited runner to score.

Brandon Bielak

The majority (14) of Bielak’s 26 relief appearances were of the long variety and on thirteen of those occasions he entered before the sixth inning, resulting in a leverage index of 0.7.  Bielak was only used on consecutive days twice and allowed 4-of-12 inherited runners to score.

Bielak was one for two in save opportunities (both regular) and had only 12 clean appearances out of his 26 total relief opportunities.  With the departure of Kendall Graveman (1.8 leverage index) and Brooks Raley (1.1), Bielak could be in for higher leverage situations in 2022.

Blake Taylor

A leverage index of 1.0 means Taylor appeared in average situations for relievers over the course of 2021. In 51 appearances, Taylor was used in back to back situations 10 times and appeared in the sixth inning or earlier ten times.

Taylor allowed 8-of-26 (31%) of inherited runners to score and was 0-for-5 (three regular, two tough) in save opportunities. Brooks Raley got a lot of the ink, but Taylor had just as many clean outings (35) as Raley in seven fewer appearances, with a superior ERA and allowed a lower ratio of inherited runners to score.

Phil Maton

We’ve detailed Maton’s up and down season with the Houston Astros here before and these numbers show more of the same. Maton filled every role after coming over from Cleveland as his 1.1 average leverage shows.

Maton came in during the sixth inning or earlier 12 times, appeared back to back 6 times, was used in three long situations and three save situations. Accumulating 17 clean appearances in 27 total appearances Maton was zero for three on saves (all tough) and finished with a 4.97 ERA before being lights out in the postseason.  The Astros will need Maton to step up in 2022.