Astros: Steamer Projections for the Bullpen

In part three of our 2022 Steamer Projections, we take a look at the Astros bullpen as we know it today.

I’ve included both Josh James and Bryan Abreu for the Houston Astros in this group as they are each projected for more than 20 appearances.

Hector Neris: 4-3, 3.92 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

Steamer projects 72 appearances and three saves from Hector Neris as he switches leagues in 2021, coming over from the Philadelphia Phillies. The projected ERA and WHIP are above his career averages and it’s Neris’ first time in the American League.

Neris has 12 saves last season, but blew seven, so keep that in mind if Ryan Pressly is injured or needs a breather.

Rafael Montero: 2-2, 4.13 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Rafael Montero only threw six innings with the Astros before being injured and out for the duration of the season. An afterthought in the trade that brought Kendall Graveman to Houston for a couple of months, Montero has outlasted Graveman as an Astro.

Apparently the Astros brass sees something in the 31-year-old righty with a 5.18 career ERA and a 1.561 WHIP. He looked good in his four outings with the Astros, but again it was just six innings.

Phil Maton: 4-4, 4.08 ERA,1.31 WHIP

Will the real Phil Maton please stand up? Is it the mediocre Maton of the regular season or the electric Maton of the postseason? Steamer projects 64 appearances and 64 innings from Maton.  The ERA would be a noticeable improvement over 2021 (4.97 with Astros, 4.73 overall), but the WHIP is a regression.

Ryan Pressly: 4-3, 3.20 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 30 saves

Ryan Pressly turned 33 earlier in December so perhaps that’s part of the reason the regression is so significant. In his first two full seasons (2019 and 2021) with the Astros, Pressly registered ERAs of 2.32 and 2.25 respectively and WHIPs below 1.00 in each season. Steamer sees a steep increase in walks per nine innings, up to 2.72 from 1.8 in 2019 and 2.0 in 2021. I’m more bullish on Pressly, especially in the ERA department.

Blake Taylor: 3-3, 4.45 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

Another gigantic leap in ERA for an Astros pitcher is projected, as Blake Taylor registered a 3.16 ERA in 2021.  That WHIP may have something to do with it as Taylor’s 1.41 WHIP in 2021 was high for someone with a low ERA and is something to keep an eye one in 2022.

Brandon Bielak: 2-2, 4.32 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

Finally, an Astros pitcher with a (slight) improvement expected in ERA and about the same WHIP as in 2021. Steamer has Bielak appearing in only 32 games, which makes sense to me as I can see Bielak yo-yoing between Houston and Sugar Land, depending on team needs.

Josh James: 1-1, 4.21 ERA, 1.34 WHIP

I’ve included Josh James here because Steamer projects 24 appearances from the enigmatic right hander after only 5 in 2021. James will be 29-years-old by Opening Day and it makes one wonder how many more opportunities he’ll get with the Astros.

James’ 13.3 career strikeouts per nine innings is overshadowed by his 5.1 walks per nine over his career. Way too many to be depended on in any close/late situation.

Bryan Abreu: 1-1, 4.13 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Like James, Bryan Abreu is projected for over 20 (22) appearances in 2022, and like James he strikes out a lot (9.8 per nine innings) and walks a lot (5.3 per nine innings) in his career. The difference is Abreu is 24-years-old and only has 48 Major League innings under his belt. I see more of an upside and future for Abreu, but Steamer sees a mediocre 2022.