Astros: 2022 Steamer Projections for Starting Rotation

In part two of our 2022 Steamer Projections, we take a look at the Houston Astros starting rotation as we know it today.

I’ve included both Cristian Javier (11 projected starts) and Jake Odorizzi (six projected starts), despite the bulk of their work projected to come in relief because. As a pair, they are projected to get a significant number of starts.

Framber Valdez: 13-9, 3.57 ERA,1.35 WHIP

Despite the decent record projected for Framber Valdez, this is a regression for someone who went 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA in 2021. There is some good news in that the projections show 3.65 walks per nine innings after Valdez walked 3.9 in 2021 and sits at 4.1 per nine innings over his career.

Lance McCullers Jr.: 10-8, 3.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Regression is also projected for Lance McCullers Jr. who finished 2021 at 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. That’s projecting the 28-year-old McCullers to allow an additional half earned run per nine innings with a higher ERA and WHIP than his career averages. Steamer is not all in on the righty.

Luis Garcia: 10-10, 4.29 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

I’m sensing a theme of regression with the Astros rotation as Luis Garcia’s projections come in with an ERA 0.81 higher than his 2021 actuals and also a higher WHIP. I get this a bit more than McCullers simply because Garcia only has 167.2 MLB innings under his belt and has less of a track record.

Justin Verlander: 12-9, 3.62 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

Justin Verlander will be 39-years-old on Opening Day and has pitched six innings over the last two seasons. Given those two things this isn’t an outrageous projection for me, though I’m more optimistic.

Verlander’s 3.33 career ERA and 1.13 career WHIP are in the ballpark and he’s almost certainly going to be treated with kid gloves through the first part of 2022.

Cristian Javier: 5-6, 4.44 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Steamer projects 45 appearances with 11 starts for Cristian Javier in 2021. I get it, but if I were the Astros I’d put this guy in the rotation, if at all possible. He’s much better in that role. These projections show an ERA 0.89 higher with a 0.15 increase in WHIP. Neither of those are outrageous depending on how Javier is used.

Jake Odorizzi: 4-4, 4.21 ERA/1.25 WHIP

I’d take these numbers from Jake Odorizzi, assuming health and production from everyone else.  These projections show 50 appearances and six starts in 2021 for Odorizzi and that sounds like a lot for me. Given the Astros youth and injury history in the rotation, the six starts are reasonable, but 44 relief appearances seems like way too many.