Astros: 2022 Steamer Projections for Lineup

In this three-part series, we’ll exam the Steamer projections from FanGraphs for the Houston Astros in the 2022 season. First up, we’ll go through the lineup and and bench players, follow that up with the starting rotation and finish with the bullpen.

I’ve added commentary where I felt it was warranted and provided reasoning when I thought the projections were too high or too low.

The 2022 Steamer projections for the Astros’ batters:

Jose Altuve: .282/.352/.469, 26 HR, 79 RBI, 127 wRC+

Projections for Jose Altuve show a slight increase in batting average, about the same OBP, but a drop in slugging, down from .489, with 5 less home runs than 2021. That’s not a crazy prediction, but it should be noted Altuve did have 31 home runs the last two full seasons (2019 and 2021), but the 31 in 2019 came in 500 at bats and the 31 in 2021 came in 601 at bats. The projected wRC+ is only three points lower than 2021’s.

Michael Brantley: .291/.350/.444, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 120 wRC+

Michael Brantley will turn 35-years-old in May, and his projected batting average is 20 points below 2021. The good news is the projected OBP is higher with slugging in the same range and a projected wRC+ of 120 is just three points lower than last season.

On the bright side, the projected home runs (15) almost doubles that of 2021 (8).

Alex Bregman: .269/.380/.484, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 139 wRC+

The Houston Astros need Alex Bregman to get back to 2019 form when he smashed 41 home runs with 112 RBI, 119 walks and an OPS+ of 162. The bad news is the 2022 projections don’t come close to those numbers. The good news is they are significantly improved over Bregman’s injury plagued 2021 season.

Yordan Alvarez .279/.356/.543, 37 HR, 109 RBI, 144 wRC+

Yordan Alvarez’s Steamer projections are above his 2021 actuals across the board. After being named MVP of the ALCS, Alvarez struggled in the World Series, but given the Astros overall offensive production he certainly wasn’t alone. Still, you’d think a guy with a career 162-game average of 42 home runs, 119 RBI and a 150 OPS+ would get more love.

Kyle Tucker: .278/.348/.522, 31 HR, 92 RBI, 136 wRC+

Probably the most interesting projection in the lineup, these numbers are down from Tucker’s 2021 actuals, and significantly down from 2021’s expected numbers from Baseball Savant in most categories, though one more home run is projected and the RBI match exactly. Tucker will turn 25 in January and should be in the prime of his career, which makes me believe his trajectory is pointed more upwards than these projections indicate.

Yuli Gurriel: .281/.344/.442, 18 HR, 76 RBI, 117 wRC+

Yuli Gurriel’s career year, capped by a batting title at age 37-years-old, is ripe for regression and these numbers project a 38 point dip in batting average, 17 points of wRC+ and six less RBI, despite three more home runs. Can the ageless Gurriel stave off Father Time one more season?

Chas McCormick: .233/.307/.382, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 92 wRC+

Similar to Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick’s numbers drop from his rookie marks of .257/.319/.447 with a wRC+ of 109. I’m more bullish on McCormick, but understand the projected regression, given McCormick’s propensity to strike out.  Not included here is McCormick’s stellar defense and versatility to play any outfield position well.

Jeremy Pena: .246/.297/.411, 13 HR, 47 RBI, 94 wRC+

Obviously, there are no MLB historical numbers to compare these projections to for Jeremy Pena, but if we look at the man he might replace we find actuals of .279/.366/.485 with 26 HR, 92 RBI and a wRC+ of 134 in 2021. Ouch, this is going to hurt and not just on offense.

Martin Maldonado: .196/.282/.335, 11 HR, 40 RBI, 73 wRC+

These projections would be an improvement over Martin Maldonado’s 2021 season numbers of .172/.272/.300 with a wRC+ of 63. It’s comforting to remember the big situations in which Maldonado was clutch, but the truth is he failed in those situations most of the time, too, batting .153 with runners in scoring position and .121 in late/close situations in 2021.

Jose Siri: .235/.284./.397, 7 HR, 26 RBI, 87 wRC+

With only 49 major-league plate appearances, Jose Siri is a wild card in my mind. He was given an opportunity with Meyers’ postseason injury, but only went 2-for-14. It’s tempting to extrapolate Siri’s .304/.347/.609 slash line, but it was literally hit or miss with a 34.7% K rate. I’m also concerned about his defense.

Jason Castro: .210/.310/.373, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 93 wRC+

Regression is projected for Jason Castro, and if that comes to fruition the offensive output of the Astros catching position will be incredibly low. Castro slashed .235/.356/.443 last season with a wRC+ of 123 (surprise!).  Castro hit righties at a .263 clip and in limited late/close situations hit .296, so that leaves us with this question – Should we see more of Castro in 2021?

Aledmys Diaz: .253/.313/.415, 11 HR, 44 RBI, 100 wRC+

Aledmys Diaz is the definition of an average offensive player, coming in at 99 wRC+ in 2021 and projected at 100 in 2022.  Diaz’s value lies in his versatility. Diaz played everywhere except center field and catcher (and pitcher).  Assuming the loss of Carlos Correa, Diaz could play a huge role in 2022, the final year of his contract.

Carlos Correa: .278/.364/.496, 28 HR, 89 RBI, 132 wRC+

Until he signs elsewhere, I’m including Correa in my projections, if for no other reason than to compare what is expected vs. the replacement options. Correa’s numbers closely mirror his 2021 actuals. What isn’t included here are his defensive prowess, which is significant as he’s at the top of MLB shortstops defensively.