The Pitch that Each Houston Astros Hitter Crushes

Let’s take a look at which pitches Astros’ hitters crush the most.

Back in the summer I did a series on each Houston Astros‘ pitcher’s best pitch – the one that gets outs and, in short, his best pitch. In this article, I’m going to share the best pitch for each batter throughout the lineup as we know it as of early December.

What follows is based largely on expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) as the main metric, with others considered, from Baseball Savant for the 2021 season.

It was an interesting exercise in that some were obvious and some not so obvious. While fans use advanced metrics for a variety of reasons, I use them to learn and attempt to understand why, for example, a pitcher throws, or doesn’t throw, a particular pitch to a particular batter.

Jose Altuve – Four-Seam Fastball

Jose Altuve saw a lot of fastballs in 2021. Thirteen hundred and forty-six to be exact, or 54.1% of the pitches he saw. But it was the four seamer that Altuve compiled a .393 xwOBA, an xBA of .284 and xSLG of .519 that stood out.

The other thing that stands out is that Altuve compiled a total net run value of 25 on all pitches combined and 20 of those came on the four-seam fastball.

Michael Brantley – Sinker

This was a lot closer than I expected as the sinker nudged out the four seam fastball for Brantley.  While the xwOBAs were close (.419 to .406) some of the other metrics favored the sinker – xBA (.360), Wiff% (6.9) and HardHit% (52.1), to name a few.

There are multiple other pitches where Brantley did well and you would expect nothing else from the “professional hitter”.

Alex Bregman – Changeup

Alex Bregman had a xwOBA of .499 on splitters in 2021, but he only saw 14 of them, so it’s difficult to nominate that as his pitch. The other pitch Bregman hit well this past year was the changeup, on which he accumulated a xwOBA of .381, xSLG of .486 and an xBA of .290.

Fun fact: Bregman saw 14 splitters and 187 changeups and ended the season with a Run Value of 4 on each pitch. He crushed the few splitters he saw, perhaps something to remember for a healthy Bregman in 2022.

Carlos Correa – Cutter

A guy can dream can’t he? Whether Carlos Correa is an Astro or an opponent in 2022, there’s one pitch he crushes and this one’s not even close as Correa crushed cutters for a xwOBA of .554, xSLG of .790 and an xBA of .434.

The actuals agree, as they come in at .656, 1.036 and .500, respectively. The run value of 12 is 5 higher than any other pitch and the RV/100 is an astronomical 7.3.

Yuli Gurriel – Cutter

We’re starting to sense a theme here through the middle of the Astros order: Cutter pitchers beware. We all know the 2021 American League batting champ hit several pitches well last season, but I chose the cutter and the .415 xwOBA Gurriel posted on the pitch.

There are other pitches with greater Run Values for Gurriel, but none with greater than the RV/100 (4.7) Gurriel registered on cutters. The actuals for the pitch are .429 batting average, .571 SLG and .476 wOBA.

Kyle Tucker – Cutter

Kyle Tucker hit cutters, curves and changeups well in 2021, but the actuals are much better for the cutters, so I went that direction. An xwOBA of .438 is backed up by actual numbers of a batting average of .429, wOBA of .594 and slugging of .786.

It’s intriguing to look at Tucker’s baseballsavant.com page and ponder what the future holds for this young man if his numbers continue to improve.

Chas McCormick – Sinker

The data is limited as Chas McCormick was a part time player that saw 284 at-bats in his rookie season in 2021. McCormick tallied a xwOBA of .387 on sinkers, with a .319 xBA and a .490 xSLG.

That wasn’t rookie luck either as his actuals come in at .486, .404 and .681 on the pitch and the Run Value on the sinker (7) is the only pitch which is over 1 for McCormick.

Martin Maldonado – Cutter

This was the toughest call and perhaps not for the reason you think.  We all know Martin Maldonado struggled at the plate in 2021. While most of the first eight batters’ expected numbers correlated to their actual numbers to some degree, Maldonado’s are out of whack. The highest run value (changeup) has horrible expected numbers and below average actuals.

Maldonado saw more of a variety of pitches than most, but some of those he saw so few of (as few as 10) that I’m not comfortable choosing those. That leaves me with the cutter which Maldonado had a wOBA of .338, xSLG of .405 and xBA of .237 on.

Astros’ fans would take those numbers in a heartbeat considering the actuals were .300, .333 and .190, respectively.