Astros: 3 high-end free agent starters to target

Although the CBT will likely change this offseason, the Astros still have some money to spend on a possible starting pitcher.

Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander are no longer under contract, while the Houston Astros‘ once top of the league rotation now lies in the hands of developing youngsters. Although Verlander is not under contract, the soon-to-be 39-year-old has a qualifying offer to accept or decline this week.

Greinke is unlikely to return with his sights on the National League, but the Astros’ front office is interested in Verlander returning, as seen by the qualifying offer and quotes from owner Jim Crane and general manger James Click.

“Hopefully [Verlander’s] back with us in 2022,” Click said at the GM Meetings. “And helping us out, because he looks like the Justin Verlander who is a Hall of Famer and Cy Young winner.”

If Verlander does not accept the qualifying offer, that is another $18.4 million available on the books. And with Verlander’s last extension and Greinke’s contract deferred, the Astros have money to spend in free agency this offseason, while starting pitching could be a position to fill.

Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi are returning starter options, while there is a surplus of minor-league depth to follow.

Peter Solomon, Tyler Ivey, Brandon Bielak, Kent Emanuel and Forrest Whitley are names that could likely backup the rotation next season, as well as Cristian Javier out of the bullpen.

Marcus Stroman has since forgiven the 2017 Astros, while also being a strong candidate for the frontend of any rotation.

According to FanGraphs, the Astros are estimated to spend $138 million for the ’22 season, but that doesn’t factor in offseason spending or trade. The luxury tax was set at $210 million in the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, which runs out this offseason.

With money freed up, the Astros could target Marcus Stroman, who is valued at $21,040,096 by Spotrac. Stroman, who is 30-years-old, has been with the New York Mets since 2019, before being an All-Star and Gold Glove winner in Toronto.

The right-hander throws a six-pitch arsenal that is heavy relied on by a slider but with two pitches rarely used in a four-seam fastball and a curve. Stroman started a league-leading 33 games in 2021, while posting a 3.02 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 179 innings.

Stroman has never been a strong strikeout pitcher with his highest K/9 being 7.9 during the ’21 season. While struggling with hard contact in the past, Stroman has since removed his name from the bottom percentile of average exit velocity in the league in 2021.

In terms of splits, Stroman is almost identical against lefties and righties with a lefties having a .646 OPS against him and righties having a .664 OPS. His ground ball pitching style could nicely complement McCullers’ strikeout pitching at the top of the rotation.

While the only AL Cy Young candidate on the market, Robbie Ray could be highly sought out for a large check.

Robbie Ray had a career-year in Toronto in 2021, while leading the American League in ERA (2.84), games started (32), innings pitched (193.1), ERA+ (154) and WHIP (1.05).

Also, the left-hander led all of Major League Baseball in strikeouts with 248, while having the highest K/9 of all-time (11.2). Ray made only $8 million in Toronto for 2021, but his future contract is projected an annual value of $17,950,424 by Spotrac.

While a lefty, Ray would be the counterpart to Framber Valdez, who produces most of his outs on the ground. The Astros could have two strikeouts pitchers in Ray and McCullers at the top of the rotation followed by a ground ball pitcher in Valdez and a fly ball pitcher in Urquidy with Garcia at the five.

Ray received a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, and while at a $18.4 million value, the left-hander could likely decline it and find a longer-deal in free agency of more value. Nothing has been reported on whether or not Ray will accept it.