Astros: 3 high-end free agent starters to target

Although the CBT will likely change this offseason, the Astros still have some money to spend on a possible starting pitcher.

Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander are no longer under contract, while the Houston Astros‘ once top of the league rotation now lies in the hands of developing youngsters. Although Verlander is not under contract, the soon-to-be 39-year-old has a qualifying offer to accept or decline this week.

Greinke is unlikely to return with his sights on the National League, but the Astros’ front office is interested in Verlander returning, as seen by the qualifying offer and quotes from owner Jim Crane and general manger James Click.

“Hopefully [Verlander’s] back with us in 2022,” Click said at the GM Meetings. “And helping us out, because he looks like the Justin Verlander who is a Hall of Famer and Cy Young winner.”

If Verlander does not accept the qualifying offer, that is another $18.4 million available on the books. And with Verlander’s last extension and Greinke’s contract deferred, the Astros have money to spend in free agency this offseason, while starting pitching could be a position to fill.

Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi are returning starter options, while there is a surplus of minor-league depth to follow.

Peter Solomon, Tyler Ivey, Brandon Bielak, Kent Emanuel and Forrest Whitley are names that could likely backup the rotation next season, as well as Cristian Javier out of the bullpen.

While the only AL Cy Young candidate on the market, Robbie Ray could be highly sought out for a large check.

Robbie Ray had a career-year in Toronto in 2021, while leading the American League in ERA (2.84), games started (32), innings pitched (193.1), ERA+ (154) and WHIP (1.05).

Also, the left-hander led all of Major League Baseball in strikeouts with 248, while having the highest K/9 of all-time (11.2). Ray made only $8 million in Toronto for 2021, but his future contract is projected an annual value of $17,950,424 by Spotrac.

While a lefty, Ray would be the counterpart to Framber Valdez, who produces most of his outs on the ground. The Astros could have two strikeouts pitchers in Ray and McCullers at the top of the rotation followed by a ground ball pitcher in Valdez and a fly ball pitcher in Urquidy with Garcia at the five.

Ray received a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, and while at a $18.4 million value, the left-hander could likely decline it and find a longer-deal in free agency of more value. Nothing has been reported on whether or not Ray will accept it.

Kevin Gausman proved himself in 2021, while he hits free agency at 30-years-old.

The San Francisco Giants’ 107-win season was backed behind their hurler Kevin Gausman, who made his first All-Star Game in 2021. The right-hander posted a career-best 2.81 ERA in a league-leading games started (33).

Gausman made $18.9 million for the ’21 season, while estimated to make $22,474,866 of annual value this offseason by Spotrac. This number is understandable, as the right-hander posted a career-high in strikeouts with 227. His highest before this season was 179 in 2017.

The Astros haven’t been linked to any free agent pitchers this offseason yet, but with all three of these pitchers expecting to explore the field, it is worth looking at who is available and their expected cost.

If Verlander does accept the qualifying offer, it is unlikely the Astros drop an extra $18 million or more of AAV on a starter. There are other parts of the team to address, such as shortstop if Carlos Correa doesn’t re-sign.