Houston Astros: Know your World Series foe – Atlanta Braves

How do the Braves matchup by the numbers?

The Braves were the eighth best offensive team in baseball with a .754 OPS, they were 12th in batting average (.244) and fifth in slugging (.435).

Atlanta likes to beat you with the long ball – the Braves finished third in the majors in home runs with (239) — however they were also one of the more aggressive teams in baseball, striking out the 10th most in the majors.

Atlanta and Houston were the two best offenses with two outs and runners in scoring position. Most notably, the Braves generated a .847 OPS when there is two-out and two-on, for an OPS+ of 136. Atlanta more times than not came up big at the plate when opportunity was there – something Houston also did well over the season.

Also, just like the Astros, the Braves hit the ball better against better competition. The Braves hit .240 with a .727 OPS against above .500 teams (League average .232, .695 OPS).

This includes hitting .295 in a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays, hitting .270 in 10 games against the Brewers, and hitting.230 against the Dodgers (League average vs. Dodgers: .209).

This offense may not have the same firepower as the Astros or Red Sox or Blue Jays, but they are deep and seem to always rise to the occasion against winning teams.

The Braves pitching staff finished 6th in the majors in ERA (3.88), 10th in WHIP (1.24), and 9th in Opponent Batting Average (.235). Their starting pitching was really good this year – the combination of Morton, Fried, Anderson and Drew Smyly generated at .229 opponent batting average and a .689 OPS (OPS+ 88).

Their bullpen was not quite up to par to their starting rotation, but still managed to finish 13th ERA or 14th in WHIP (sOPS 102).

Interesting tidbit: 

Atlanta pitchers struggled against AL teams. Atlanta went 6-14 in those 20 games against AL foes, and their pitchers generated a 6.00 ERA with a whip of 1.53 in those games.

Those numbers might be purely coincidental, but since Houston was the best offense in the American League that is worth keeping note.

What do the Braves do well?

The Braves digs the long ball.

The Braves like to hit bombs, and they really like to hit bombs with guys on base. 18.2% of their hits throughout the season where via home runs, which was the second highest in the majors only behind the Rays.

So basic math – If Atlanta were to have 10 hits in a game, you should expect two of them will be landing in the stands. They didn’t have any guys who smacked 40+ plus home runs, but they have Freddie Freeman, Adam Duvall, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies all hit 25 plus home runs throughout the season.

Other guys like Dansby Swanson, Travis D’Arnaud, Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler all have dangerous power who can heat up at anytime. And with the way Eddie Rosario’s was hitting in the NLCS, he might be the most dangerous power hitter in the Braves lineup.

Houston Astros will obviously need to pitch well, but there will be added emphasis on keeping the base paths clear. It’s unlikely this Astros’ staff will keep these Braves from smacking home runs -it’s just what they do well.

But if Houston can make those home runs just solo shots instead of back-breaking three-run bombs, that’ll lighten the damage.

The Braves’ pitching and defense is really really good.

For the first time all postseason the Astros will not have a clear advantage on the defense and pitching side of things.

The Astros and the Braves are the two best defensive teams in all of baseball – both teams finished 1-2 in fielding, defensive runs saved, combined defensive WAR and numerous other defensive metrics.

Atlanta also has a potent starting rotation, with Morton, Fried and Anderson. Not only do these starters have impressive all-star caliber stuff, they also generate a ton of weak contact from hitters (combined 44% of hits).

Astros’ hitters will need to get ahead of the count often to get themselves in better spots to barrel the ball. Atlanta is not going to give up too many mistakes, so Houston will need to tilt the hitting situations in their favor and drive the ball.

What do the Braves not do so well?

Travis D’Arnaud struggles with throwing out base runners.

I did say that the Braves were a great defensive team, but one chink to their armor might be Travis D’Arnoud’s arm. D’Arnaud is a terrific offensive hitting catcher and has good command of plate, but he’s vulnerable to base stealing with his below-average arm.

D’Arnaud only threw out five baserunners it is 470 innings this season and is 0-for-13 in throw out opportunities so far this post season. Martin Maldonado is nowhere near the offensive player that D’Arnaud is, but D’Arnaud’s subpar arm could be a soft spot for the Astros baserunners to attack.

If Houston can get on and then subsequently steal second, that’ll both eliminate the double play and putting runners in scoring position.

The Braves’ bullpen struggles late and close.

I know the Atlanta bullpen is on fire right now and some would even consider it their strength right now, but let’s take a large 172-game sample size view. And the evidence there shows that the Braves bullpen might be a bit leaky.

Will Smith, the Braves All-Star closer that has been perfect thus far in his four four save opportunities, averages an impressive 11 strikeouts per nine with his great lefty curve. But he’s been known to give up some big hits in key spots and walks batters 10% of the time.

Tyler Matzek, probably one of the best stories in baseball right who has been near-perfect this postseason, also generates 11 strikeouts per 9 innings, but he walks batters 15% of the time. When he’s finding the plate, he’s dominant like 1999 John Rocker.

When he’s missing the plate, he’s erratic like 1989 Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn – or 2003 John Rocker.

Other guys like AJ Minter and Luke Jackson are all solid and having career years, but the staff as a whole hasn’t been exactly “unhittable”. The Braves bullpen was 10th in walks this season, 10th in ERA, 18th in WHIP and 18th in OBA.

And if you take out Will Smith and Tyler Matzek, the remaining bullpen pitchers combined for a 1.38 WHIP on the season.  Not ideal – especially against a patient Astros lineup.

Houston hitters needs to stay within the zone on these pitchers and challenge them on placement. If they can punish balls inside the strike zone and force these Braves pitchers to explore the box, Houston should generate a decent number of baserunners and apply big pressure to this less-experienced bullpen.

Here are 3 ways the Astros win the World Series.

Starters need to pitch like they did in Game 5 & 6 of the ALCS.

Easier said than done. But with no Lance McCullers Jr. in the World Series, the Astros really can’t afford to go deep in the bullpen, especially with the way Freeman, Albies and Rosario are playing. Those guys are just too good at hitting for a stressed-out bullpen to mow through.

Starting pitching is going to have to step up, especially early in the series.  Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia will need to pitch at a level like what they did ALCS Game 5 and 6.

They will also need Jose Urquidy to forget that disaster of a game he threw in back in Game 3. The more effective innings (hopefully 5+) those three can generate in these games, the better position the Houston bullpen will be in.

Also watch for how Baker and pitching coach Brent Strom deploy Cristian Javier, Zack Greinke & Jake Odorizzi. Who will get the ball in Game 4? Who ever it is could play a critical role in the outcome of this series.

The Astros need to crack Charlie Morton (…it pains me to write this).

The Astros are going to need to get after these starting pitchers. The Astros usually hit well against lefty pitchers, but Max Fried and Ian Anderson are pretty darn good lefties. So, I’d expect an even battle between those two pitchers and Astro hitters.

The one guy that the Astros absolutely need to crack – Charlie Morton. “Ground Chuck”, the guy that carried the Astros the last couple innings to their 2017 World Series, has aged like a box of fine wine as a starting pitcher in this league.

And, to be frank, he has dominated the Houston Astros in the postseason as of late.

In the 2019 ALDS Morton stifled the Houston Astros at Tropicana Field in 5 innings, striking out nine hitters – Perhaps the best I’ve ever seen Charlie Morton pitch.

Chuck followed that up last year with a dominating 2020 ALCS where he blanked the Astros both Game 2 and Game 7 and shut the door on their season out at Petco Park.

So here it is – Charlie Morton’s stats against the Astros in the playoffs: three starts, 15 innings,  ER, 20 SO and four walks. The Astros can’t afford to let him dominate again.

Morton is one of the best precision pitchers in baseball who generates tons of soft contact and lets his great defense get outs for him. If the Astros can avoid those one-pitch at-bats that end with a groundout and make Morton really work for his outs, they should eventually generate some runs – and most importantly get him out of the game sooner.

The Astros need to beat the Braves Lefty Bullpen crew.

The Braves lefty relieving crew of Will Smith, Tyler Matzek and AJ Minter are on a roll right now,  having thoroughly dominated the Dodgers hitters during the NLCS. How can Houston foil these red-hot southpaw Braves?

First of all, if Yordan Alvarez keeps hitting like he’s been doing, it may not matter. But let’s assume these power lefties can freeze up Alvarez, then what? If that’s the case, Houston will need the veteran right-handed bats positioned around Yordan Alvarez to come through with some big hits.

Carlos Correa, who’ll bat directly after Alvarez, has been hitting .290 this year against lefties. Alex Bregman, who’ll bat right before Alvarez, hits .306 against lefties and .297 against power pitchers.

Batting title winner Yuli Gurriel, hitting seventh after lefty and future MVP Kyle Tucker, has terrorized lefties all year with a .331 BA with a .950 OPS. If these veteran star righty-bats can come in and connect on some big hits against these hot pitchers, Snitker may not have too many other solutions to slow down this offense.

This should be a terrific series to watch. If Houston hitters can avoid quick outs, get Morton and Fried out of the game as soon as possible, and wear out this confident lefty-dominant bullpen – this series might end with Baker hoisting his first World Series trophy as a manager.