Houston Astros Fans Know Your ALCS Foe – Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox heart-of-the-order is lethal.

The Astros lineup might be the best in all of baseball , but there’s an argument that Boston’s “heart of the order” (3-6 spot) might be the best in the game. This is the baseball equivalent of the Golden State Warriors 2016 lineup of death.

The Red Sox have Rafael Devers-Xander Bogarts-Alex Verdugo-JD Martinez as a back-to-back-to-back-to-back combination is pretty imposing. Those four guys combined to hit .290 with 102 HRs, 354 RBIs and an OPS of .876 over the 2021 season.

The ability for Alex Cora to mix-and-match two power righties (Bogarts, Martinez) with two power lefties (Devers, Verdugo) makes it tough for even the best pitchers, especially when you have to see these guys consistently over a seven-game series.

The Red Sox offense jumps out early and comes through in big spots.

This great Red Sox lineup also jumps on teams early. The Red Sox hit .263 against starting pitchers the first time through the lineup for an OPS of .789 – that’s a OPS+ of 123 (league average is 100).

This offense has a well-prepared plan coming into the game and they seem to execute well in the first couple of innings against a starting pitcher. What’s interesting is they actually drop off to around the league average when a starting pitcher goes through their lineup a second and third time: second time through, the OPS+ is 104, and the third time, it is 107.

They also are perhaps the most clutch hitting team (along with Houston) in all of baseball. Boston ranks in the 80th+ percentile in most major clutch batting situations – but they excelled particularly in one scenario the most – two outs and runners in scoring position. With two guys on the bags and two outs on the board, Boston Red Sox hit .262 with a .824 OPS – a SOPS of 128.

Translation: they cashed in on big scoring chances time and time again. We saw this on display during the ALDS where they had big hits down in Tropicana Field that blew open  Game 2, and then timely hits that led to some big walk off wins in Games 3 and 4.

Whether or not they have Lance McCullers for the series, the Astros pitchers will have to play well. If they can keep the bases empty and not get down in the first three innings, Houston should be able to settle in and let their offense wear out the inferior Boston pitching. But if Houston can’t contain this Boston offense early and often, it might be a tough series to watch.

The Red Sox don’t play good defense.

For how good the Red Sox are on offense, there equally as bad on defense. The Red Sox were 29th in the league and fielding percentage and were second in the league and errors (108). Third baseman Rafael Devers was fourth in the league in errors with 22.

Bobby Dalbec has 12 errors and he was called up in August. Kyle Schwarber was a poor defensive catcher and a poor defensive outfielder before his Boston days and hasn’t got much better at first base. This is quite possibly the worst defensive playoff team we’ve seen in years.

The Red Sox don’t have the same pitching compared to postseasons past.

And, as mentioned, the Red Sox are having a down year with their pitching. How down? Of their 14 pitchers who logged 40+ innings this season, only four of them had a WHIP under 1.20 and none had a WHIP under 1.10 (Houston had six under 1.20 and two under 1.10 FWIW).

Teams routinely hit against Boston pitching in clutch situations (sOPS 108) over a 162-game season. And not every team is as good offensively as the Houston Astros.

This will be similar to the ALDS series against Chicago. If the Astros can stay disciplined at the plate and don’t chase, the numbers say this Boston pitching staff will give up some big hits. And this defense might even give the Astros an extra run or two.

The Astros need to keep the non-big four bats quiet for Boston.

There likely will be now controlling how well their big four hit the ball in this series. I anticipate Devers and Bogaerts and Martinez and Verdugo to have some big hits and helped them score some runs.

The key for the Astros will be keeping all those other guys quiet. Can the Astros keep Christian Vazquez from having a big late inning hit? Can the Astros pitchers stifle Hunter Renfroe and Kyle Schwarber? Can they bring Kike Hernandez back down to earth?

If Astros pitching can make all those guys non-factors in the series, I think the Astros 8/ 9 deep lineup well eventually beat out this power Boston lineup.

The Astros need to crack Nathan Eovaldi.

Conventional wisdom would say they need to shut down Chris Sale, the Red Sox ace and former Cy Young winner. but since he only came back from injury a few months ago and hasn’t looked close to his peak form, I don’t think Sale is the primary pitcher for the Astros to worry about. I wanna know how the Astros are going to handle Boston’s other ace – Nathan Eovaldi.

Eovaldi is a 1.93 ERA pitcher in the playoffs and has posted back-to-back eight strikeout games in his last two postseason starts.

The current Houston Astros lineup is a career 22-of-70 (.333 BA) with 4 HRs, 9 RBIs and .931 OPS against the right-hander, but Eovaldi always seems to reach another gear during the postseason. He’s the one guy on this Red Sox staff they could tilt the series in their favor with a couple of great performances.

If the Astros can get to Eovaldi and chase  off the mound before the 5th inning, that will leave a shallow Red Sox bullpen to carry the remaining more than four innings against this Astros lineup.

No lead is safe – the Astros need to score, score, score (six+ runs a game).

I think it’s fair to say that no matter what the score is or what inning the game is in no league will be safe in this series . Both teams are elite in their offense and can score in bunches. I have a hard time save games being a 3-1 or 4-2 final score.  I think a lot of these games are gonna be one by bulk offense.

If Houston wants us to advance the World Series, they’re gonna have to likely score six plus runs in every game. Heck Houston – why stop there? Score 8, 10, 14… just don’t stop.

This Boston offense is too locked in to reasonable expect Astro pitchers to keep them bottled up the entire series. If the Astros can wear out this subpar Boston pitching staff and manage to get out ahead in these games, Houston should be in the driver’s seat to reach their third World Series in the last five years.