Status Update: Astros favored in ALCS and in World Series

Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

Prior to the ALDS the odds set at for the Houston Astros  were +240 (29.4%) to win the American League Pennant while the Red Sox were not expected to beat the Rays and their odds were in the long shot range.

Well, we now know how that worked out as Boston slugged their way past Tampa and will meet the Astros in Houston beginning Friday at 7:07 p.m. CST.

The Astros have been installed at -145 to win the series against the Red Sox and return to the World Series.  This translates to a 59.2% chance of winning the ALCS, which means the Astros odds of winning has more than doubled the pre-ALDS numbers and should be encouraging to the Astros faithful.

This all makes sense given the Astros went 5-2 against the Red Sox this year, winning series both in Boston and Houston and batting .300 against the Red Sox staff, while averaging 6 runs per game.

Currently the Dodgers and Braves are +175 (36.4%) to win the National League Pennant, with the Giants close behind at +180 (37.7%), meaning the odds makers see the National League as basically a toss up at this point.

The Astros have also been tagged as the favorite to bring home the World Series at +200 (33.3%), with the Dodgers at +350 (22.2%), Giants +375 (21.1%), Red Sox +400 (20.0%) and Braves at +550 (15.4%) trailing.

Over at FanGraphs, the numbers are a lot closer, giving the Astros a 50.5% chance to win the ALCS and Boston a 49.5% chance.

FanGraphs believes the Astros (27.5%) and Red Sox (25.8%) have the best chance to win the World Series.  The surprise here is not only is FanGraphs rating the ALCS as basically a toss up, but gives the Red Sox better odds of winning the World Series than the Dodgers (22.3%).

The remaining World Series odds at FanGraphs is rounded by the Braves (15.5%) and Giants (9.0%).

It’s fascinating to see how the different markets (betting market vs. the analytical) see how the season plays out, just as It’ll be interesting to see how those numbers change once the Dodgers-Giants series is resolved.

The takeaway here is that after seeing what the Astros did to the White Sox, the oddsmakers have shifted towards the Astros as the team most likely to win the World Series despite the Dodgers still being alive and the Giants incredible season continuing for at least one more game.

Next. 10 Key Stats for Astros vs. Red Sox ALCS. dark

It seems the odds makers are finally seeing what Astro fans have believed all year.  There’s a real shot that the Astros play in, and win, the 2021 World Series.