Astros: 10 Key Stats for Astros vs. Red Sox ALCS

1) Team Home Runs

Over the course of the regular season, the Astros hit 221 homers, while the Red Sox slugged 219. Considering that the Red Sox nearly matched the Astros total home run production, and did so in 169 less plate appearances, this one goes to Boston.

Advantage: Red Sox

2) Team Runs Batted In

The ’21 Astros finished fourth in their 60-year franchise history by driving in 834 RBIs. Meanwhile, Boston’s offense knocked in 783 RBIs on the season. These numbers remain close. The Red Sox averaged earning an RBI on 14.2 percent of every at-bat.

Meanwhile, Houston achieved a slightly better average of earning an RBI in 14.9 percent of every Houston at-bat. While both lineups remain dangerously capable of driving in runs, the advantage ever so slightly goes to Houston.

Advantage: Astros

3) Team Batting Average

The ’21 Astros finished with a .267 batting average, while the Red Sox completed the season with a team batting average of .261. Houston achieved this superior clip in nearly 100 more at-bats than Boston, sustaining the higher team batting average over a larger sample size.


Advantage: Astros

4) Team Slugging Percentage

The Red Sox achieved 572 extra base hits on the season, while the Astros accumulated 534. Over their respective 162-game seasons, Boston’s offense outcompeted Houston’s by achieving 31 more doubles and nine more triples than the Astros during the ’21 season.

Moreover, while the Red Sox received 169 less plate appearances on the season than the Astros, Boston only trailed Houston’s run production by 34 runs. In other words, Boston’s offense might have outscored Houston’s in run production if the Red Sox benefited from as many extra at-bats as the Astros enjoyed over the regular season.

Advantage: Red Sox

5) Team On-base Percentage

The Astros reached base slightly more than one-third of every opportunity at a .339 clip. Meanwhile, the Red Sox turned in a .328 team on-base percentage.

While both teams played 162 games, the Astros accumulated 169 more plate appearances over the season than the Red Sox. In effect, the Astros not only finished with a higher team OBP, but they sustained that higher mark over a larger amount of opportunities.

Advantage: Astros

6) Team Stolen Bases

The Red Sox stole only 40 bases all season, while getting caught stealing 21 times, good for a .656 stolen base percentage. Meanwhile, the Astros swiped 53 bags, and were thrown out 13 times, resulting in a superior .803 stolen base percentage. On the base paths, there appears a significant leg up for Houston.

Advantage: Astros

7) Team Fielding Percentage

What many might not know, is that over the last four years, the ALCS-bound Astros have turned in top-five finishes in fielding percentage. In other words, out of all 60 seasons of MLB action in Houston, the last four Astros squads have ranked better than 55 others.

While Houston achieved a .988 team fielding percentage this season, Boston has turned in a more pedestrian .981. In contrast, when the Red Sox won the World Series in 2018, their .987 team fielding percentage more closely resembled that of the ’21 Astros.

So, over the course of the seven-game series about to commence, Houston should be facing a less formidable defense than when they squared off with Boston in the 2018 postseason.

Advantage: Astros

8) Team Pitching Staff ERA

The ’21 Red Sox pitching staff turned in a 4.26 ERA on the season. While that number squeamishly rests above 4.00, the Astros pitching staff finished the season with a 3.76 ERA.

What’s more, Houston pitched 26 more innings than the Red Sox in their respective 162-game seasons, and still managed to edge out Boston’s hurlers by a significant margin. In effect, Houston pitchers collectively averaged giving up exactly half a run less per nine innings than their Red Sox counterparts.

Advantage: Astros

9) Surrendered Home Runs per Nine Innings Pitched

Fans dig the long ball. How do the Astros and Red Sox compare in giving up home runs? Houston gave up 1.16 home runs per nine innings, while the Red Sox surrendered 1.12. While neither mark ranks as excellent, Boston’s pitching staff slightly earns the upper hand in keeping the ball in the ballpark.

Advantage: Red Sox

10) Team Pitching Strikeouts per Nine Innings

The ’21 pitching staff managed to accomplish earning the fourth highest total number of strikeouts in Houston’s 60-year franchise history. However, the ball club only struck out opposing batters at a 9.07 per game clip.

Meanwhile, Boston’s hurlers bested the Astros in strike out efficiency, averaging 9.68 K’s per game. So while Houston’s pitching staff outcompeted Boston’s in the ERA department, Boston has the strike out efficiency advantage going into the ALCS.

Advantage: Red Sox

2021 ALCS Prediction

While these ten categories do not reflect every conceivable statistic, several findings appear especially relevant. In this list, Houston edges out Boston in six out of 10 key areas. Look for a close series featuring passion, parody, mental toughness, and tension. Prediction—Houston takes it in six games and advances to the 2021 World Series.