Astros’ Fans Get To Know your ALDS Foe: the Chicago White Sox

The Houston Astros clinched the AL West Thursday night, winning their fourth AL title in the last five years. Now, once the team stops celebrating and Dusty Baker stops drinking beer from a shoe, the Astros can turn their focus to a deep World Series run.

Houston sits as the second seed in the AL and have earned themselves a matchup in the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox. This should be the best divisional series matchup in the playoffs – both teams are legit World Series contenders with tons of star power in each dugout.

Let’s take a look at the Chicago White Sox and how they match up against the Houston Astros.

Who are the 2021 Chicago White Sox?

Chicago is the AL Central champions, winning their first division title since 2008. They are led by Hall of Fame manager (and longtime AARP member) Tony LaRussa and by 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu.

They have a plethora of young talent in their lineup – Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, and Andrew Vaughn. They arguably have the deepest starting lineup in all of baseball – Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, Dylan Cease, former Texas Ranger Lance Lynn, and old friend Dallas Keuchel.

Finally, the White Sox have two of the best relievers in baseball to close games for them – future Hall-of-Famer Craig Kimbrel and the fire-throwing Australian Liam Hendriks.

The White Sox are not quite as good offensively as Houston, but they finished 8th in the MLB in OPS (.755), 5th in batting average at (.256 BA) and 10th in slugging. There are only 20th in home runs , and they are middle of the pack 16th in strikeouts. As for pitching, the White Sox finished 7th in the majors and ERA (3.73) – identical to the Houston Astros – and finished 6th in WHIP at 1.21.

However, the White Sox have struggled against better opponents. There are only 21-26 against AL teams above .500 – the Astros are 38-26 against those same teams. Chicago beat up on lesser opponents — hitting .261 from the plate with a OPS.788 against below .500 teams – and saw a significant drop-off when they took on the good teams (.242 BA, .711 OPS) . Our Astros , on the other hand, actually hit better against above .500 teams – sporting a .271 BA and a .791 OPS.

What do the White Sox do well?

1. They crush left-handed pitching

Chicago has a very righty-dominant lineup loaded with a lot of power, and they’ve been crushing left-handed pitching. For the season, Chicago’s right-handed batters are hitting a dominant .280 BA and .833 OPS against left-handed hurlers. Impressive.

Some quick hitters: Luis Robert is hitting .393 with a mammoth 1.119 OPS against lefties. Yasmani Grandal has a 1.021 OPS against southpaws. Jose Abreu has a .963 OPS, Tim Anderson is hitting .321 BA… you get the picture.

What must Houston do?

Houston needs to limit the number lefty-on-righty hitter situations. Framber Valdez, Houston’s ace who played well in last year’s playoffs, must be sharp against this fearsome lineup. Valdez has to get ahead of the count then use his elite curveball those hitters chase.

I also don’t know if Brooks Raley and Blake Taylor are even usable for this series. Even if they make the ALDS roster, I have a hard time envisioning these two being used in any high leverage situations.

2. They are strikeout artists

The White Sox love power pitching and strikeouts. They throw strikeouts 27.1% of the time, second only to the Milwaukee Brewers. Chicago has seven guys who average 12 SO/9 Innings or better – Dylan Cease, Carlos Rodon, Liam Hendricks, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer, Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera.

The Astros only have one player that does that, and you guessed it – Brooks Raley (Ryan Pressly is at 11.8). This Chicago staff attacks the zone with power with their incredible pitching talents, and punches batters out with velocity and nastiness.

What must Houston do?

This Astros lineup does a lot of things well, one in particular being they don’t strike out. Houston struck out only 19.1% of the time – good for third in the majors. When the Astros played their best lineup, they only strike out 16% of the time.

I wouldn’t expect the Astros to strike out less than 16% of the time, but that percentage will be worth keeping an eye on throughout those series. If the White Sox get close to their 27% strikeout rate, that might be trouble for Houston.

On the flip side, if Houston can stay under or around 20% that should spell success for them. In other words, Houston needs to make tough outs when they bat. Line drives, flyouts, groundouts — anything but the big nasty strikeout.

What do the White Sox do not-so-well?

1. They are not a good defensive team

This is why Houston needs to generate tough outs – Chicago is not a good defensive team. The White Sox ranked 17th in defensive deficiencies they have the fifth most errors in the majors (96) in her 26 and defensive runs saved.

Guys like Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada leave a lot to be desired defensively in the infield, and many of their outfielders were negative defensive first baseman prospects that that were converted to the outfield for necessity.

Also, Tony LaRussa doesn’t believe in the shift all that much – the White Sox only shift 21% of the time (28th in the league)  and they almost only shift when they’re facing a left-handed hitter.  It is likely, with the potential exception of the Boston Red Sox, the White Sox will be the worst defensive team in the playoffs.

How can Houston exploit?

The Houston Astros lead the majors and walks and most pitches per at bats. Translation – Houston works counts very and generates walks, something that usually leads to success dividends in the playoffs. If the Astros hitters stay in the zone and drive balls in play, there could be some opportunities for the Astros to blow the game open just by Chicago’s own wrongdoing.

2. Chicago hitters struggle against power

The White Sox are amongst the best in the league at hitting against finesse pitchers, hitting a dominant .283 BA against them (Baseball-Reference: Finesse pitchers are guys in the lower 33rd percent in SO+Walks rates). Pitchers that try to groove balls in and generate ground outs do not match up well against this dynamic White Sox lineup.

However, this White Sox team struggles against power pitchers (top 33 percent of SO & Walk rates), only slashing a cumulative .201 BA and.655 OPS against them. Power guys — Gerrit Cole, Jacob de Grom, Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander for example — generally have above-average success against this White Sox lineup.

How Can the Astros exploit?

Good news for the Houston Astros: They have a handful of key players who fit that power pitcher characteristic. Starters Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia and Framber Valdez are all in the top third strikeout rates, as our relievers Cristian Javier, Kendall Graveman and closer Ryan Pressly.

Lance McCullers, who may be the Game 1 and Game 4/5 starter, could very well be the X factor for the Houston Astros. The White Sox live only hit .138 (5-43) against McCullers with 14 strikeouts. If McNasty can continue this trend, Houston should take control of this series.