Astros’ Fans Get To Know your ALDS Foe: the Chicago White Sox

The Houston Astros clinched the AL West Thursday night, winning their fourth AL title in the last five years. Now, once the team stops celebrating and Dusty Baker stops drinking beer from a shoe, the Astros can turn their focus to a deep World Series run.

Houston sits as the second seed in the AL and have earned themselves a matchup in the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox. This should be the best divisional series matchup in the playoffs – both teams are legit World Series contenders with tons of star power in each dugout.

Let’s take a look at the Chicago White Sox and how they match up against the Houston Astros.

Who are the 2021 Chicago White Sox?

Chicago is the AL Central champions, winning their first division title since 2008. They are led by Hall of Fame manager (and longtime AARP member) Tony LaRussa and by 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu.

They have a plethora of young talent in their lineup – Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, and Andrew Vaughn. They arguably have the deepest starting lineup in all of baseball – Lucas Giolito, Carlos Rodon, Dylan Cease, former Texas Ranger Lance Lynn, and old friend Dallas Keuchel.

Finally, the White Sox have two of the best relievers in baseball to close games for them – future Hall-of-Famer Craig Kimbrel and the fire-throwing Australian Liam Hendriks.

The White Sox are not quite as good offensively as Houston, but they finished 8th in the MLB in OPS (.755), 5th in batting average at (.256 BA) and 10th in slugging. There are only 20th in home runs , and they are middle of the pack 16th in strikeouts. As for pitching, the White Sox finished 7th in the majors and ERA (3.73) – identical to the Houston Astros – and finished 6th in WHIP at 1.21.

However, the White Sox have struggled against better opponents. There are only 21-26 against AL teams above .500 – the Astros are 38-26 against those same teams. Chicago beat up on lesser opponents — hitting .261 from the plate with a OPS.788 against below .500 teams – and saw a significant drop-off when they took on the good teams (.242 BA, .711 OPS) . Our Astros , on the other hand, actually hit better against above .500 teams – sporting a .271 BA and a .791 OPS.

What do the White Sox do well?

1. They crush left-handed pitching

Chicago has a very righty-dominant lineup loaded with a lot of power, and they’ve been crushing left-handed pitching. For the season, Chicago’s right-handed batters are hitting a dominant .280 BA and .833 OPS against left-handed hurlers. Impressive.

Some quick hitters: Luis Robert is hitting .393 with a mammoth 1.119 OPS against lefties. Yasmani Grandal has a 1.021 OPS against southpaws. Jose Abreu has a .963 OPS, Tim Anderson is hitting .321 BA… you get the picture.

What must Houston do?

Houston needs to limit the number lefty-on-righty hitter situations. Framber Valdez, Houston’s ace who played well in last year’s playoffs, must be sharp against this fearsome lineup. Valdez has to get ahead of the count then use his elite curveball those hitters chase.

I also don’t know if Brooks Raley and Blake Taylor are even usable for this series. Even if they make the ALDS roster, I have a hard time envisioning these two being used in any high leverage situations.

2. They are strikeout artists

The White Sox love power pitching and strikeouts. They throw strikeouts 27.1% of the time, second only to the Milwaukee Brewers. Chicago has seven guys who average 12 SO/9 Innings or better – Dylan Cease, Carlos Rodon, Liam Hendricks, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer, Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera.

The Astros only have one player that does that, and you guessed it – Brooks Raley (Ryan Pressly is at 11.8). This Chicago staff attacks the zone with power with their incredible pitching talents, and punches batters out with velocity and nastiness.

What must Houston do?

This Astros lineup does a lot of things well, one in particular being they don’t strike out. Houston struck out only 19.1% of the time – good for third in the majors. When the Astros played their best lineup, they only strike out 16% of the time.

I wouldn’t expect the Astros to strike out less than 16% of the time, but that percentage will be worth keeping an eye on throughout those series. If the White Sox get close to their 27% strikeout rate, that might be trouble for Houston.

On the flip side, if Houston can stay under or around 20% that should spell success for them. In other words, Houston needs to make tough outs when they bat. Line drives, flyouts, groundouts — anything but the big nasty strikeout.

Three Ways Houston wins the series

1. Crack Rodon and/or Hendriks

The White Sox have a handful of great pitchers, but the two pitchers I’m most concerned about are Carlos Rodon and Liam Hendriks.

Carlos Rodon was dominant against the Astros in his two starts — Houston only went 4-for-45 against him in those starts, with two of those hits coming from Abraham Toro.

Houston has not had a lot of success against Hendricks either. Since 2019 the Astros are 7-for-51 when facing Hendricks, with only one 1 home run, 1 double, and 16 SOs.

Rodon, despite missing some time due to arm fatigue, will likely start Game 2 for the White Sox and Hendricks is going to be deployed in the late innings of games. If Houston can break the trend against and crack either one (or both) of these pitchers, then series outcome really tilts towards Houston.

2. Postseason Experience Comes Through

The Astros competitive advantage in the playoffs is frankly their success and experience in the postseason. Jose Altuve is a career .306 hitter in the playoffs with a .945 OPS and 18 home runs. Carlos Correa is a career .270 hitter in the playoffs with a .880 OPS and 17 home runs. Alex Bregman has a career 356 average with a 1.203 OPS in his 16 career ALDS games. Since joining the Houston Astros Michael Brantley is hitting .311 for Houston in the playoffs. And if you exclude last year’s playoffs where he was clearly hurt, AL Batting Title winner Yuli Gurriel is a career .271 hitter in the playoffs.

This isn’t exactly breaking news for anyone – the Houston Astros have great postseason players. If these guys replicate similar production from prior playoff experiences, Houston should do just fine.

3. Avoid playing from behind

No duh, right? But it’s more-so the case when you play Chicago.

Statistically the White Sox are a really good front-running team. When they get a lead they hit better (.265 BA, .790 OPS) and they pitch better (1.08 WHIP). However, this Chicago team is a below average team when they’re behind in games (hit .238 BA, 1.21 WHIP).

While the White Sox and the Astros have very similar pitching stats in clutch situations, but there is a significant difference with clutch hitting.  Chicago only hit .244 BA in high-leverage situations– the 32nd percentile in the league. Houston hits .261 BA in those same situations – 76 percentile.

When games are late and close (7th or later with team batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck) -The White Sox have a sOPS of 94 (OPS league average is 100) – the Astros have a 114 sOPS.

Clearly when you face a team with Liam Hendricks and Craig Kimbrel, you don’t want to be trailing late. But if the Astros can get into the 5th and 6th inning of games ahead or tied, the stats bear out that the Astros have performed better in high-leverage spots.

This should be a fantastic series. Let’s hope the Astros can play to the level that we all expect from them and churn out series victory.

After a loss on Friday, the Astros return to action on Saturday against the Oakland A’s at 6:10 p.m. Jake Odorizzi takes the mound against right-hander Paul Blackburn.