Astros’ Fans Get To Know your ALDS Foe: the Chicago White Sox

What do the White Sox do well?

1. They crush left-handed pitching

Chicago has a very righty-dominant lineup loaded with a lot of power, and they’ve been crushing left-handed pitching. For the season, Chicago’s right-handed batters are hitting a dominant .280 BA and .833 OPS against left-handed hurlers. Impressive.

Some quick hitters: Luis Robert is hitting .393 with a mammoth 1.119 OPS against lefties. Yasmani Grandal has a 1.021 OPS against southpaws. Jose Abreu has a .963 OPS, Tim Anderson is hitting .321 BA… you get the picture.

What must Houston do?

Houston needs to limit the number lefty-on-righty hitter situations. Framber Valdez, Houston’s ace who played well in last year’s playoffs, must be sharp against this fearsome lineup. Valdez has to get ahead of the count then use his elite curveball those hitters chase.

I also don’t know if Brooks Raley and Blake Taylor are even usable for this series. Even if they make the ALDS roster, I have a hard time envisioning these two being used in any high leverage situations.

2. They are strikeout artists

The White Sox love power pitching and strikeouts. They throw strikeouts 27.1% of the time, second only to the Milwaukee Brewers. Chicago has seven guys who average 12 SO/9 Innings or better – Dylan Cease, Carlos Rodon, Liam Hendricks, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer, Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera.

The Astros only have one player that does that, and you guessed it – Brooks Raley (Ryan Pressly is at 11.8). This Chicago staff attacks the zone with power with their incredible pitching talents, and punches batters out with velocity and nastiness.

What must Houston do?

This Astros lineup does a lot of things well, one in particular being they don’t strike out. Houston struck out only 19.1% of the time – good for third in the majors. When the Astros played their best lineup, they only strike out 16% of the time.

I wouldn’t expect the Astros to strike out less than 16% of the time, but that percentage will be worth keeping an eye on throughout those series. If the White Sox get close to their 27% strikeout rate, that might be trouble for Houston.

On the flip side, if Houston can stay under or around 20% that should spell success for them. In other words, Houston needs to make tough outs when they bat. Line drives, flyouts, groundouts — anything but the big nasty strikeout.

What do the White Sox do not-so-well?

1. They are not a good defensive team

This is why Houston needs to generate tough outs – Chicago is not a good defensive team. The White Sox ranked 17th in defensive deficiencies they have the fifth most errors in the majors (96) in her 26 and defensive runs saved.

Guys like Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada leave a lot to be desired defensively in the infield, and many of their outfielders were negative defensive first baseman prospects that that were converted to the outfield for necessity.

Also, Tony LaRussa doesn’t believe in the shift all that much – the White Sox only shift 21% of the time (28th in the league)  and they almost only shift when they’re facing a left-handed hitter.  It is likely, with the potential exception of the Boston Red Sox, the White Sox will be the worst defensive team in the playoffs.

How can Houston exploit?

The Houston Astros lead the majors and walks and most pitches per at bats. Translation – Houston works counts very and generates walks, something that usually leads to success dividends in the playoffs. If the Astros hitters stay in the zone and drive balls in play, there could be some opportunities for the Astros to blow the game open just by Chicago’s own wrongdoing.

2. Chicago hitters struggle against power

The White Sox are amongst the best in the league at hitting against finesse pitchers, hitting a dominant .283 BA against them (Baseball-Reference: Finesse pitchers are guys in the lower 33rd percent in SO+Walks rates). Pitchers that try to groove balls in and generate ground outs do not match up well against this dynamic White Sox lineup.

However, this White Sox team struggles against power pitchers (top 33 percent of SO & Walk rates), only slashing a cumulative .201 BA and.655 OPS against them. Power guys — Gerrit Cole, Jacob de Grom, Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander for example — generally have above-average success against this White Sox lineup.

How Can the Astros exploit?

Good news for the Houston Astros: They have a handful of key players who fit that power pitcher characteristic. Starters Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia and Framber Valdez are all in the top third strikeout rates, as our relievers Cristian Javier, Kendall Graveman and closer Ryan Pressly.

Lance McCullers, who may be the Game 1 and Game 4/5 starter, could very well be the X factor for the Houston Astros. The White Sox live only hit .138 (5-43) against McCullers with 14 strikeouts. If McNasty can continue this trend, Houston should take control of this series.

Three Ways Houston wins the series

1. Crack Rodon and/or Hendriks

The White Sox have a handful of great pitchers, but the two pitchers I’m most concerned about are Carlos Rodon and Liam Hendriks.

Carlos Rodon was dominant against the Astros in his two starts — Houston only went 4-for-45 against him in those starts, with two of those hits coming from Abraham Toro.

Houston has not had a lot of success against Hendricks either. Since 2019 the Astros are 7-for-51 when facing Hendricks, with only one 1 home run, 1 double, and 16 SOs.

Rodon, despite missing some time due to arm fatigue, will likely start Game 2 for the White Sox and Hendricks is going to be deployed in the late innings of games. If Houston can break the trend against and crack either one (or both) of these pitchers, then series outcome really tilts towards Houston.

2. Postseason Experience Comes Through

The Astros competitive advantage in the playoffs is frankly their success and experience in the postseason. Jose Altuve is a career .306 hitter in the playoffs with a .945 OPS and 18 home runs. Carlos Correa is a career .270 hitter in the playoffs with a .880 OPS and 17 home runs. Alex Bregman has a career 356 average with a 1.203 OPS in his 16 career ALDS games. Since joining the Houston Astros Michael Brantley is hitting .311 for Houston in the playoffs. And if you exclude last year’s playoffs where he was clearly hurt, AL Batting Title winner Yuli Gurriel is a career .271 hitter in the playoffs.

This isn’t exactly breaking news for anyone – the Houston Astros have great postseason players. If these guys replicate similar production from prior playoff experiences, Houston should do just fine.

3. Avoid playing from behind

No duh, right? But it’s more-so the case when you play Chicago.

Statistically the White Sox are a really good front-running team. When they get a lead they hit better (.265 BA, .790 OPS) and they pitch better (1.08 WHIP). However, this Chicago team is a below average team when they’re behind in games (hit .238 BA, 1.21 WHIP).

While the White Sox and the Astros have very similar pitching stats in clutch situations, but there is a significant difference with clutch hitting.  Chicago only hit .244 BA in high-leverage situations– the 32nd percentile in the league. Houston hits .261 BA in those same situations – 76 percentile.

When games are late and close (7th or later with team batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck) -The White Sox have a sOPS of 94 (OPS league average is 100) – the Astros have a 114 sOPS.

Clearly when you face a team with Liam Hendricks and Craig Kimbrel, you don’t want to be trailing late. But if the Astros can get into the 5th and 6th inning of games ahead or tied, the stats bear out that the Astros have performed better in high-leverage spots.

This should be a fantastic series. Let’s hope the Astros can play to the level that we all expect from them and churn out series victory.

After a loss on Friday, the Astros return to action on Saturday against the Oakland A’s at 6:10 p.m. Jake Odorizzi takes the mound against right-hander Paul Blackburn.