FanGraphs give Jose Altuve 2nd best chance to reach 3,000 hits

A year of accolades have highlighted a remarkable bounce back for Jose Altuve. The Houston Astros‘ second baseman battled injury, personal loss and the yips during the 2020 season, as his ’21 campaign has consisted of moving up the hit and home run franchise ladder, collecting the most hits as an Astro at Minute Maid Park and his seventh All-Star selection.

Now, according to FanGraphs, Altuve has the second best odds of active major-leaguers to reach 3,000 hits behind Miguel Cabrera, who would likely surpass the milestone next season. The right-hander currently has totaled 1,770 hits in his career, as of Sept. 26.

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Although one of the most likely to reach 3000 hits, will Jose Altuve ever surpass the milestone?

Of the active players with the most hits and at a reasonable age of gaining more, Altuve has a 34% chance of reaching 3,000 hits by the end of his career. This is second behind Cabrera who sits at a 99% chance of 3,000 hits. These percents are in relation to each player’s hit totals as of Sept. 21.

Altuve, now 31-years-old, is signed through the ’24 season with the Astros. There isn’t a clear-cut replacement for Altuve currently in the minor-league system, as pure second baseman aren’t as common in today’s game.

In the article, Dan Szymborski gathered 3,000 hit numbers since baseball statistics were first recorded. From the graphs, it is evident that the 3,000 hit numbers have immensely decreased over the past century, prompting the headline: “The 3,000 Hit Club Is Closed for Maintenance.”

Altuve is under contract with the Astros until he is 34-years-old. As hit production would likely decrease over time for major-league players, it will be a long hike for Altuve to hit 3,000 before he is 40-years-old.

There is less than a week left of baseball this season, which might not fluctuate the total to a high degree, s wee can try to calculate the number of hits he will need over the next nine years. It would make the most sense for Altuve to continue his career with Astros after 2024, as the idea of playing with another franchise seems unfathomable on different levels.

Over the next nine years, Altuve would need in the realm of 137 hits each season to reach 3,000, as the right-hander is only 1,230 away from the milestone. Since 2012, Altuve has slashed 145 or more hits in every season, excluding the small sample sized outlier of 2020.

If Altuve continues to stay consistent at the plate, the right-hander could easily reach 3,000 hits by his 40th birthday. The only other life-long Astros’ player to join the 3,000-hit club is Craig Biggio, who could finish as the second greatest Astro of all-time if Altuve continues on his current path.

After being walked-off again by the Oakland A’s, the Astros return to action on Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Ray at 7:10 p.m., as they open their final homestand of the season. Jose Urquidy will match up against right-hander Michael Wacha.