The Astros’ postseason odds bode well for a deep playoff run.
If you follow me on Twitter, you know I occasionally share the Houston Astros‘ postseason and World Series percentages tracked by FanGraphs. I’ve mentioned this before, but these add perspective when Astros’ fans on social media and my son are figuratively diving off cliffs after a loss or two, especially if they occur on consecutive days.
Those numbers are generated by an algorithm that’s intended to give fans an expectation of a team’s chances at a division title, Wild Card berth and World Series win at any given point in the season.
But there are other odds, ones not so solely rooted in the play on the field, WAR, xBA and other advanced metrics, but rather the perception of a team’s chances to win their division, make the playoffs and win the World Series.
These are odds put out by SportsBooks and are generally referred to as “Futures” or “Future Odds”, the chances of something happening in the future. Astros’ fans might be interested to know that over at WynnBET.com the Astros currently have the best odds to win the American League at +200 and are second to the Dodgers (+275) at +500 to win the World Series.
If you’re not familiar with betting terminology and numerology, let me translate: +200 equates to 33.3% odds of winning the American League and +500 equates to 16.7% odds of winning the World Series.
The odds of the purely analytically driven numbers are different from those driven by the perception and betting trends. FanGraphs gives the Astros a 28.7% chance to win the American League while over at WynnBET the odds offered are almost five percent higher. Similarly, when it comes to the World Series the odds offered on the Astros at WynnBET are slightly higher than those at FanGraphs – 16.7% to 15.8%.
In short, the perception of the Astros by those setting the odds at WynnBET and those betting are higher than the FanGraphs calculation.
From my perspective, there’s nothing earth shattering in these numbers as they’re relatively close and the important takeaway is that both have Houston as the most likely team to win the American League and second most likely to win the World Series.
The odds are October is going to be a great month to be an Astros’ fan.