Houston Astros: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not (Vol 4)

Who’s Hot

Carlos Correa

The last trend piece talked about Carlos Correa’s recent slump, but it was noted that he seemed primed to break out of it. Well, here we are, and now, Correa is raking again.

Correa has been batting .318 over his last 15 games with an 1.133 OPS to go along with four home runs, 10 RBI and a 13-to-8 walk to strikeout ratio. This hot streak is highlighted by some big bombs against the Dodgers, some huge 105 MPH exit velocity hits versus the Red Sox, and a two-homer night this last Friday up in Buffalo. He’s seeing the ball perfectly at the moment and crushing them at every bat.

Last year was rough for Correa, as he saw drop offs an average in power at the plate. A lot of this was predicated on his inability to hit any breaking balls or off-speed pitches, but he seemed to find his swing during last year’s playoffs and (after a somewhat slow start this year) has continued to rake and is on a steady upward trajectory with production. Correa is now hitting .303 on breaking pitches opposed to .250 last season – he’s also now hitting .226 on off-speed pitches, which is much improved from his abysmal numbers against those pitches last season ( .093 BA).

With Correa now tucked in between Altuve and Bregman in the batting order, Houston seems to have, once again, have the best top-of-the order-batting lineup in all baseball.

Oh, and message to James Click:  Sign Correa long term

Luis Garcia

The 24-year-old right-hander from Venezuela was an unknown commodity in the Astros’ farm system this time last year. Garcia had only spent most of his time in Single-A and Double-A ball , so it took everyone by surprise when Garcia got his first major league call up last year. But Garcia proved early to be a very solid option in the regular season, and later was terrific when he given innings to pitch during the postseason.

And the way he’s been patient so far this year, Garcia might be (and I can’t believe I’m typing this) in line for an All-Star appearance. Yeah – he’s been that good.

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In his last three appearances Luis Garcia is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA , a 0.79 WHIP , a .164 opponent batting average and a 21-to-4 strikeout to walk ratio. And this isn’t just some hot streak. For the season Luis Garcia is 5-3 with a 2.75 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 68 strikeouts in 59 innings pitched. He is currently 5th in the AL in ERA, behind Kyle Gibson, Garrett Cole, John Means, and Tyler Glasnow (ahead of guys like Rich Hill, Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, #1 draft pick Casey Mize and Zach Greinke). He is also 3rd in opponent batting average (.189) – ahead of everyone except for Tyler Glasnow and John Means. The kid is an elite company.

Garcia’s pitch profile is centered around deception. His primary pitch is his four-seam fastball, which he throws nearly 49% of the time. This pitch hangs in the low 90s, with excellent placement and generates about 2300 revolutions per minute (RPMs). But what makes Garcia really special is his ability to get ahead of the count with that fastball, and then get hitters out with his cutter and slider. Garcia’s cutter (19% usage) generates an astonishing 49% whiff percentage, whereas his slider (15% usage) generates a 42% whiff rate. What’s impressive is both those pitches hang around the same RPM levels as his four-seam fastball which, along with his pitch delivery and elite placement, makes it very hard for hitters to anticipate what pitch is coming.

Between Garcia and Framber Valdez, the Astros have done a terrific job above identifying young international prospects with the potential to be elite aces. I hope Garcia gets a chance to pitch in the All-Star game and continue his growth trajectory as an elite pitcher.

Who’s Not

Alex Bregman

The obvious answer to this would be Yordan Alvarez, but I thought it would be interesting to look at the recent struggles of Alex Bregman.

Over the last two weeks, Bregman is 9 – 48 (.188) with an OPS south of .700 to go along with only one home run and five RBIs – very un-Bregman like. During this time his batting average has dropped from .319 to just above .286.

Bregman’s recent struggles might be linked to who is faced. Bregman has historically been better against left-handed pitchers, and other than Snell, Ryu and Kershaw, he’s seen mostly righties. The other element of is just might be bad luck – Bregman still is in the top 95th percentile in both foul rate and contact. He still doesn’t chase much out of the strike zone, so it’s hard to understand why he’s in such a slump at the moment.

One thing keep eye on is his struggle with the fastball. He’s typically amongst the best in the game at hitting the fastball, with his compact backswing and his ability to barrel the ball. But this year he’s only hitting .256 against the fastball (career average .301) and has been getting beat with speed high in the strike zone.

Bregman has said it himself he’s not swinging the bat very well, but these could just be the normal ebbs and flows of momentum each hitter deals with during a baseball season. Bregman has shown his ability to figure things out quick, adjust, and improve upon them. Expect him to start raking up hits again soon.

The Bullpen

Okay. This pains me. This really does pain me, but let’s do this.

Except for Ryne Stanek, (surprisingly) Brandon Bielak, Cristian Javier and Blake Taylor (welcome back), this Astros bullpen has been an absolute dumpster fire lately. The Astros pen gave up multiple leads during their recent homestand, including a five-run lead to the San Diego Padres that resulted in a Fernando Tatis Jr. backbreaking home run in the ninth.

I don’t think it’s fair to pick one person who’s struggling from this bullpen since they’ve collectively been bad, so I’m gonna go over each as an entire unit.

• Andre Scrubb – posted a 14.37 ERA in 3.2 innings, which included giving up three home runs, six walks and nearly .400 average. He was naturally sent back down to Sugar Land to figure things out.
• Bryan Abreu – had a 10.13 ERA over a three-game stretch before landing on the IL from injuring himself talking flyballs in practice. Ouch.
• Wily veteran Joe Smith posted an 8.10 ERA in his last four appearances, and it’s looking more and more that it was a bad idea for him professionally to skip last season.
• Enoli Paredes, one of my favorite young new Astros to root for, has a 5.79 ERA in his last four appearances with some erratic pitches that would scare anyone in the crowd sitting behind home plate.
• Brooks Raley, who is pitching much better than he was in April, is still posting a 5.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.31. Just way too much traffic on the bases when he’s at the mound.
• And Ryan Pressly, the steadiest of arms in this Astros bullpen, has fallen into a small rough patch. He’s posting a 4.79 ERA during his last five appearances with only four strikeouts, a .227 opponent batting average and was the one who gave up that huge Tatis Jr. bomb.

Thankfully, the Astros starters have all played very well, managing to go deep into the game and let this battered bullpen looks their wounds. But if the Astros want to make any noise in the second half and in the playoffs the bullpen is going to have to pick it up.

The hope is that at least one of Abreu/Scrubb/Paredes can really find some elite form again, while at the same time we see more Blake Taylor, Cristian Javier, Ryne Stanek and good Brandon Bielak.

And I imagine the return of Pedro Baez would only help. Just a thought.