Astros: ESPN Top 100 Ranking Reaction

With Opening Day only 7 short days away, ESPN’s baseball experts came together to release their annual Top 100 players of 2021 list this month. There was little surprise at the top, where Mike Trout was ranked #1 for the 7th straight year, followed by Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna Jr and former Houston Astros‘ pitcher Gerrit Cole.

We looked at the top 100 and analyzed weather ESPN got it right or wrong

This year’s list featured five Astros players, which seems low considering the top-level talent on the roster. Zach Greinke was left off the list, as was Lance McCullers, Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel and Kenny Van Doren’s favorite player Steven Souza.

The Astros may not be as spoiled with talent as they were two years ago, but this team still has some of the best players in the game. So, as we did for the MLB List, let’s play Goldilocks with these Astro player rankings – are they too high, too low, or just right?

Yordan Alvarez

Rank: #89 (2020 – #62)

Alvarez came in like a wrecking ball in 2019, as a rookie put together one of the best offensive rookie campaigns in the history of baseball. He posted a 3.6 offensive WAR, an OPS higher than 1.000 and put together 162-game average of .317 BA, with 51 home runs in 150 RBIs. And he did this all in the age of 23. He only managed to play two games last year before he was lost for the season with a knee injury.

Alvarez only has 378 plate appearances in his career, but it’s hard not to be giddy about what he’s done thus far. Alvarez has a hard-hit rate of 54% (league average 39%) and has a ISO* of .343 (league average .180). Those numbers are higher than Bryce Harper, Albert Pujols, Aaron Judge and the arguably the greatest of all time, Mike Trout.

* ISO = (Total Bases-Hits)/ABs per Baseball-Reference.com

VERDICT: JUST RIGHT

Give the ESPN experts some kudos for remembering who Yordan Alvarez is, considering the MLB top 100 didn’t have him on their list. Alvarez should be at the very minimum in the Top-70 player, but his injury concerns from last year makes everyone wonder if he’ll be available enough to have the same impact he did in 2019.

Dusty Baker will likely use him as the exclusive designated hitter, with some hope that he could play some outfield on occasion. Alvarez is still not even 24-years-old and most power hitters don’t even scrape their peaks until their late-20s or mid-30s. His 6-foot 5 frame and easy power should make him one of the most feared hitters this game is ever seen for the next decade. Now let’s just hope you can stay healthy (twiddling thumbs).

SHOULD BE: 81-90

Michael Brantley

Rank: #84 (2020- #89)

This ranking is just plain confusing. Brantley was a Top 40 player according to MLB, but he’s ranked in the 80s by ESPN for the second year in a row. ESPN’s list seems to be more pitcher-heavy up top, but that seems to be way too big of a disparity for Brantley.

“Uncle Mike” is as steady as they come, someone who consistently puts up all-star level numbers and seems to get better with age while hitting in the heart of the batting order. Since 2018, Brantley has hit .309, had an OBP of .370, and has smacked 44 HRs, 91 doubles and 188 RBIs. He doesn’t have gaudy power like a Yordan Alvarez or Bryce Harper (#25), but he gets on base 37% of the time and is one of the more clutch hitters in the league.

VERDICT: TOO LOW

I guess some of this could attributed to his age and his average defense, but considering how great he is at the plate, this ranking is still very perplexing. Someone who hits above .300, who had a 1.7 WAR last season and has an OPS north of .850 should be ranked ahead of guys like Dansby Swanson (#80), Whit Merrifield (#70) and Shohei Ohtani (#73) at the very least.

Brantley might never be an MVP candidate like some of these other guys, but he’s been consistently good for almost a decade. Bad miss by ESPN on this one.

Should Be: 51-60

Carlos Correa

Rank: #34  (2020- #49) 

Carlos Correa is coming off a 2020 season where he posted a career-low batting average (.264) and OPS (.709). But he’s also Carlos Correa, one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and the guy who posted a 1.8 WAR in a short season. Correa also was flat-out electric during the Astros playoff run — hitting .362 with 6 homers and 17 RBIs with an OPS of 1.221 in those 13 games. Oakland A’s fans know this all too well.

Correa enters a contract year with Houston Astros and could make lots and lots of money with a good season. Correa always seems primed for an MVP season with all his talent – he’s arguably the best defensive shortstop in the game and has shown stretches of power and dominance at the plate. But, as they all say, the best ability is availability. Correa has only had one season where he played more than 120 games, which is unnerving considering he’s not even close to his 30s. However, Correa played 95% of the games last year – if he plays at that rate over a 162-game season, Correa might be hoisting some serious hardware at the end of it.

Verdict: JUST RIGHT

Create came in ahead of other shortstops like Gleyber Torres (#49) and Javier Baez (#42), but was ranked behind Francisco Lindor (#10), Trea Turner (#26), and Tim Anderson (#33). While I believe Correa is one of the two best shortstops in the game, his offensive dip from last year and concerns over long-term health seems to justify the ranking. Correa has a higher ceiling than any of those other shortstops, as someone with a skillset to be top 10 player and a potential future MVP. Let’s just hope the Astro front office can get Correa under contract for the rest of the decade.

Should Be: 31-40

Alex Bregman

Rank: #13  (2020- #12) 

Alex Bregman finished last season hitting .242 and just never could find power at the plate once he came back from the IL. But Bregman is still one of the three best defensive third baseman in the game and is only a year move from finishing second in MVP in 2019. He’s only 27 years old and expect a few more 2019-like seasons from the kid.

Verdict: JUST RIGHT

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I personally think he’s belongs in the top 10, but he didn’t have a good enough 2020 to justify it. I actually feel like ESPN is being very generous with the Bregman ranking. This list has Bregman ahead of guys Matt Chapman (#29), Jose Ramirez (#17), and Anthony Rendon (#15), all uber-talented third baseman who could win the MVP any season. It seems like Bregman’s 2019 campaign seems to still have weight with baseball guys.

A stat to watch with Bregman is his hard-hit rate (percent of balls hit that exit at 95 MPH or higher). From 2016-2019, Bregman had a hard-hit rate of 43% that was trending upwards to the 45-50% range. However, Bregman dropped last year all the way down to 33%. If that percentage gets back up to 40-45% early on in the season, that should be a good sign that the old Alex Bregman is back.

Should Be: 11-20