The Astros should beat the 2021 season wins betting total

Baseball will be underway in less than one month, and many out there are speculating on how the standings will shakeout. With lots of aggressive moves in the offseason, there’s sure to be steep competition for the top of the standings, especially in the American League where teams like the Chicago White Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays went all in for a postseason run.

Over/Under win totals set by bookmakers are a great proxy for performance expectations this upcoming season. As expected, the Los Angeles Dodgers project to have the best record in MLB for 2021, as Vegas has their win total at 101.5 wins. The New York Yankees are the next highest at 95.5, followed by the Padres at 94.5 and the Braves at 92.5.

After a regressed 2020 regular season, the Houston Astros should beat the betting totals in 2021.

The Houston Astros, coming off a disappointing regular season followed by a somewhat redeeming post season, seem to be forgotten amongst the pack of contenders in the American League. Oddsmakers opened with Houston at 87.5 but has since moved down to 86.5 wins for the season (87-75 record). Bookmakers actually have the Oakland As at 87.5 wins for the season, so Vegas is projecting Oakland as the favorites to win AL West race for a second straight year. (Just for reference, the state “rival” Texas Rangers are slated at 69.5 wins for the season – so kudos to them).

This win total for Houston is understandable – the Astros lost both George Springer and Justin Verlander, and it appears they’ll be without Framber Valdez at least a few months. There is also a good chance most of the public bettors are Astro-haters and could be betting the number down in hopes of Houston tailspin in 2021. However, win totals tend be off from time to time, and I think this is the case for this year’s Astros. Here’s why the Houston Astros will beat the 86.5 win total.

Houston’s undervalued rotation

The Astros may not have the juggernaut rotation of death they once had, But Houston might have one of the deepest rotations. Zack Greinke is a former Cy Young winner, McCullers has ace-level stuff and is playing in a contract year, Jake Odorizzi is a 15-game winner still in the prime of their career, and both Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier have shined in starts in both the regular season and post season.

Brandon Bielak and Luis Garcia have also shown some promise as starters last year and could push for playing time in 2021. And if Framber Valdez can return sometime this season, Houston might be quite frisky come playoff time. Houston may not have a guy in the rotation who’ll throw multiple 14K games or produce a low deGrom-esque ERA, but this rotation can get outs and get dubs.

The offense should return 

The Astros bats were very inconsistent to the last year, and they seemed possessed by the ghost of Bill Bergen (look him up). The Astros were snake bit with injuries and individual slumps all season which really seemed to affect the offensive output.

MVP runner-up Alex Bregman was injured down the stretch, Jose Altuve had a 2020 to forget, Yuli Gurriel slumped hard at the end, and Carlos Correa was fading badly at the plate until the playoffs came around. Oh, and AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez only played 2 games. In short, four of the teams best players had down years and their best hitter missed the entire season.

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Those five players combined for only 6.7 Wins Above Replacement (adjusted for a full 162-game season) in 2020, opposed to the amazing 24.1 Wins Above Replacement those players generated in 2019.  That’s a 17-game win differential.

The Astros were a .500 team in 2021 with those five players struggling. If those guys return to 2019-levels, Houston will likely have the best offense in baseball. And they’d be an easy 90+win, maybe even a 100-win team. I’m banking those players will be closer to their 2019 performance than their 2020 performance.

The big question obviously is how Houston can replace George Springer. Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve might be options for the leadoff position, as could Myles Straw, who will get the first crack at replacing Springer in center field. Keep an eye on if minor leaguers Steven Souza Jr., Chas McCormick or Pedro Leon earn some ABs throughout the season. If one of those players can pop with opportunities at the plate, then the Astros could really be cooking on offense.

I think the Astros will finish with a 92-70 record and win back the AL West. There is just too much motivated talent on this team for Houston to sink back to .500 baseball. Expect a solid revenge tour from the boys in orange.