Houston Astros way-too-early 2021 season roster projections

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Here’s an early look at how the Houston Astros roster may shape up for the 2021 season.

It’s been a painfully slow offseason thus far for most MLB teams, and the Houston Astros are no exception. In fact, aside from getting rid of some players, they haven’t done much of anything. That should change before Spring Training starts, but for now, there are some roster spots up for grabs.

The Astros had a difficult 2020 regular season, but it gave them the opportunity to see how some of their minor leaguers would fare on the big stage. A few of them performed quite well and have likely earned themselves a guaranteed spot on the roster in 2021. Others will find themselves on the roster bubble.

How many of these young players make the roster next year will depend on who GM James Click decides to add this offseason. The trade route can’t be dismissed completely, but more than likely the additions will come via free agency. At least two starting spots in the outfield are open and possibly the closer role as well, so these projections will likely change by February.

Some players who were injured or ineffective in 2020, such as Roberto Osuna, Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock, are no longer with the team. George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick are all free agents, with only Brantley seeming to have a legitimate chance to return. The Astros roster next season could look quite different from the one that reached the World Series in 2019.

Oct 16, 2020; San Diego, California, USA; Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker (30) is congratulated by second baseman Jose Altuve (left) and shortstop Carlos Correa (center) after hitting a home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning during game six of the 2020 ALCS at Petco Park. The Houston Astros won 7-4. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /

Roster Locks: Position Players

These position players, barring injury, are guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster in 2021.

Infield

After inking first baseman Yuli Gurriel to an extension, the Astros will return their entire starting infield, which has been intact since 2017. Gurriel started out fine in 2020 but really faded down the stretch and in the playoffs, which may have been compounded by a hand injury. Regardless, the 36-year-old will be looking to bounce back at the plate in 2021.

Second baseman Jose Altuve struggled in the 2020 regular season but came alive in the playoffs, so the hope is that he can use that as a springboard toward another vintage Altuve season. Shortstop Carlos Correa was a beast in the playoffs and should have won a Gold Glove this year; he’ll be entering his contract year if the Astros don’t sign him to an extension.

Third baseman Alex Bregman also struggled at the plate in 2020 after finishing as the MVP runner up in 2019. He will be looking for a bounce back as well. Utilityman Aledmys Diaz, after playing in only 17 games due to injury in 2020, will be back and certainly hopes to stay healthy next year.

Outfield

Right now, the only guaranteed starter is Kyle Tucker, who figures to hold down one of the corner outfield spots. His powerful bat made its presence known in 2020, and he also was a finalist for the Gold Glove award. The Astros will look for continued growth from him next year.

Myles Straw will also be on the roster, though it’s unclear if he’ll be the fourth outfielder or if he gets a crack at the starting center field job. His speed is a real weapon and he’s been solid with the glove, but his bat has been weak. If the Astros aren’t able to sign a center fielder in free agency, Straw will probably get the chance to show if he can hit enough to keep the job.

Catcher/DH

Veteran catcher Martin Maldonado will be back in the second year of his two-year deal. Yet again, he proved to be a strong defender in 2020 and did an excellent job of working with the pitching staff. His bat started out hot and then went cold, but he’s not here for his offense. The Astros figure to sign a veteran to back him up and may look to split the starts in a 60/40 timeshare.

Of course the big news will be the return of DH Yordan Alvarez, the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year. He appeared in only two games in 2020 due to COVID issues and problems with his knees. He underwent surgery on both knees and appears to have been doing well in his rehab. If he’s healthy, he’s certainly capable of slugging 40 homers.

Oct 11, 2020; San Diego, California, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez (59) pitching against the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning in game one of the 2020 ALCS at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /

Roster Locks: Pitchers

These pitchers, barring injury, are guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster in 2021.

Rotation

Despite losing ace Justin Verlander after only one start, the Astros starting rotation was surprisingly effective in 2020. Unfortunately, they won’t have Verlander in 2021 after he underwent Tommy John surgery, but the front office has the luxury of not needing to make any additions aside from adding some depth.

Who’s the ace now? At this point it looks like Framber Valdez, who put up a 3.57 ERA with strong peripherals in 2020 and was even better in the postseason, tallying a 1.88 ERA in 24 innings. Now entering his age-27 season, the lefthander will be looking to show his excellent year was no fluke.

The veteran Zack Greinke will be back in the final year of his contract, and though he had an up and down 2020, he showed he’s still capable of being a solid mid-rotation starter. Lance McCullers, Jr finished strong to tally a 3.93 ERA in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and looks to take another step forward in what will also be his contract year.

Jose Urquidy missed time because of COVID but returned to put up a 2.73 ERA in five starts and a 4.02 ERA in the postseason, with one bad start in the ALDS inflating his numbers. He’ll look to put together a full season in 2021. Rookie Cristian Javier was excellent, pitching to a 3.48 ERA in 10 starts and two relief appearances and put up a 2.89 ERA out of the bullpen in the playoffs.

Oct 16, 2020; San Diego, California, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Cristian Javier (53) pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the eighth inning during game six of the 2020 ALCS at Petco Park. The Houston Astros won 7-4. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /

A rotation with these five pitchers would be a solid one, and that could be the way the team goes. They could also add another veteran to the mix and shift Javier to a multi-inning relief role, but either way, all five of these guys will be there on Opening Day.

Bullpen

After serving as the closer for most of 2020, Ryan Pressly will be back, though the Astros could always add a closer and move Pressly back into a setup role. After sitting out all of 2020, veteran Joe Smith will be back as well, so that’ll be two quality veteran arms at the back of the bullpen already.

Youngsters Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor will be there as well. Both put together strong first seasons in the big leagues in 2020 and look to have solid futures in the game. Paredes, in particular, looks like he could be a future closer. Lefty Brooks Raley, who was technically a rookie at age 32, will return, giving the Astros a second lefthanded option alongside Taylor.

There are a couple of bullpen spots up for grabs, which could go to some new additions or possibly some younger players who are currently on the bubble. But this group of five pitchers is a solid place to start when building a bullpen.

Oct 7, 2020; Los Angeles, California, USA; Houston Astros relief pitcher Andre Scrubb (70) pitches in the seventh inning of game three of the 2020 ALDS against the Oakland Athletics at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports /

On the Bubble

These players could compete for roster spots in Spring Training, depending on what moves the Astros make this offseason.

Position Players

Obviously the outfield is a big topic, and Chas McCormick could serve as a fourth or fifth outfielder if needed, so he’s on the bubble. But aside from Straw and Tucker, there aren’t any real candidates for starting jobs on the roster currently. Abraham Toro and Taylor Jones could serve as additional infield depth and have a shot to make the Opening Day roster, though that could depend on what the roster sizes are in 2021.

Garrett Stubbs is currently the No. 2 catcher on the roster, though the Astros would probably prefer to bring in a veteran to split time with Maldonado. If that happens, Stubbs may head to Triple-A to serve as extra depth, but the lefthanded hitter could serve as a nice complement to Machete if the team decides to go that route.

Pitchers

One name that might seem like an omission from the roster locks is Andre Scrubb, who pitched to a 1.90 ERA out of the Astros bullpen in 2020. But he frequently managed to work his way in and out of trouble and walked an unsightly 7.6 batters per nine innings. At a 1.479 WHIP, his low ERA just isn’t sustainable, so the team might want him to try and work through his control issues at Triple-A. He might make the 2021 roster, but it’s not guaranteed.

One pitcher who is likely to make the roster given good health is Austin Pruitt, who did not pitch in 2020 due to elbow issues. He could serve as the team’s long reliever or even a fifth starter if the team wants Javier in the bullpen. I would say he’s very likely to make the roster if healthy, but I wouldn’t consider it a lock, especially if the Astros make a few additions in free agency.

A couple of youngsters to watch out for are Bryan Abreu and Luis Garcia. Abreu had a disastrous 2020 season as he showed up out of shape and proceeded to walk seven batters and hit two more in 3.1 innings. Garcia pitched to a 2.92 ERA in 12.1 innings. Both are likely ticketed for Triple-A, but could be called upon if the front office doesn’t acquire more veteran help.

Josh James will likely miss the start of the season while recovering from hip surgery, and don’t discount the possibility of Verlander returning in a relief role late in the season either. The remaining pitchers on the 40-man roster, including top prospect Forrest Whitley, are unlikely to start the year in the majors.

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