Astros Playoffs Preview: Wild Card round predictions

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The Houston Astros are in the playoffs, so here are our predictions for the Wild Card round.

You can argue whether they deserve to be in the playoffs, but the fact of the matter is the Houston Astros are in the postseason. They’ll be taking on the AL Central champion Minnesota Twins in a best-of-three Wild Card round beginning today. With this entire series being played on the road and the team having struggled in September, it’s hard to envision a happy ending here.

Today’s Wild Card round opener will begin at 1 p.m. CT and will be broadcast on ABC. Tomorrow’s Game Two will begin at noon and will be shown on ESPN2. If there is a third game, it will be on Thursday, though the time and TV station are yet to be determined. These playoffs are certainly unusual, which is evidenced by the fact that Houston is even in the postseason at all.

The Astros finished at 29-31 on the season with a run differential of plus-four. Meanwhile the Twins went 36-24 with a plus-54 run differential. Houston actually scored 10 more runs than Minnesota did this year, but the Twins allowed 60 fewer runs. With all the injuries to the Astros pitching staff, that’s unsurprising.

The Twins finished eighth in the AL in OPS, ninth in batting average, third in homers, 13th in doubles, last in stolen bases and 10th in runs scored. The Astros finished ninth in OPS, 10th in batting average, 10th in homers, fourth in doubles, 10th in stolen bases and seventh in runs scored, and they had the fewest strikeouts of any lineup in the league.

On the pitching side, Minnesota finished third in the AL in ERA, second in WHIP, third in opponents’ batting average, fourth in strikeouts and had the fewest home runs allowed. Houston was seventh in ERA, eighth in WHIP, sixth in opponents’ batting average, sixth in strikeouts and was tied for the fourth-fewest home runs allowed.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – SEPTEMBER 15: Nelson Cruz #23 of the Minnesota Twins bats against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 15, 2020 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Lineup

The Twins rely on the long ball, as they’ve had five players hit nine or more homers this year — and that doesn’t include former MVP Josh Donaldson, who was limited to 28 games. They’re led by MVP candidate Nelson Cruz with his .303/.397/.595 line and 16 home runs. Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Max Kepler are all legitimate longball threats to go along with Cruz and Donaldson.

The Astros offense has the higher ceiling, but several players have underachieved at the plate this year, namely Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel. George Springer, Kyle Tucker and Michael Brantley have been good, and Martin Maldonado has come up with some big hits, but this offense has struggled mightily over the past few weeks. It’s feast or famine, and whether they show up in the playoffs could determine the series. ADVANTAGE: Even

Defense

This should be a well-played series on defense, as these two teams are tied for the fewest errors in the AL this year. The Astros have a slight advantage in the fielding percentage department, but the bottom line is defense is a strength for both of these clubs.

Donaldson and Buxton both played error-free ball this year, as did Springer. Correa is a contender for a Gold Glove, and we know what Bregman and Maldonado can do. It’s hard to say one club is any better than the other here, as both are excellent. ADVANTAGE: Even

Starting Rotation

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – September 23: Kenta Maeda #18 of the Minnesota Twins pitches against the Detroit Tigers on September 23, 2020 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images) /

Kenta Maeda became the Twins’ ace by going 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts this year and a ridiculous 0.75 WHIP. Jose Berrios (5-4, 4.00 ERA) is the likely starter for the second game, and Michael Pineda (2-0, 3.38 ERA) is in line to start a final game if necessary.

The Astros will counter with Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA) in the opener with either Jose Urquidy (1-1, 2.73 ERA) or Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57 ERA) in Game Two. The red-hot Lance McCullers Jr (3-3, 3.93 ERA) would be in line to start a Game Three.

The big difference here is in the aces. Greinke has pitched poorly in September (6.08 ERA) and was 0-3 with a 4.59 ERA on the road this season. Maeda has a 3.00 ERA in September and is 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA at home in 2020. The rest of the rotations may be fairly evenly matched, but the Game One matchup shifts this in Minnesota’s favor. ADVANTAGE: Twins

Bullpen

The Twins have had a few bumps at the back of their bullpen with three different players tallying multiple saves this year. But they have fantastic depth, boasting nine relievers with above-average ERAs. Tyler Clippard and Tyler Duffey have been lights-out, while guys like Matt Wisler, Jorge Alcala and Caleb Thielbar have emerged as weapons.

The Astros have had issues with closer Ryan Pressly, and they don’t have nearly the same depth Minnesota does. Rookies Blake Taylor, Andre Scrubb and Enoli Paredes have provided some meaningful innings, and Brooks Raley has served as a quality lefty specialist at times. But they’ll have to rely on rookie starter Cristian Javier and either Valdez or Urquidy to help out, as they’ll have pitchers on the roster they won’t want to use. ADVANTAGE: Twins

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 22: Dusty Baker Jr. #12 of the Houston Astros looks on before their game against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on September 22, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

Wild Card Round Prediction

The Astros managed to back into the playoffs, but they didn’t exactly look convincing in doing so as they struggled against the Mariners and Rangers. The Twins overtook the slumping White Sox to win the division crown and didn’t necessarily set the world on fire, but they were playing much better than Houston did.

In such a short series, the first game will be key. The Twins have an advantage in that their ace has been pitching better and is better at home, and in fact that goes for both teams. Minnesota was 24-7 at home this year while Houston was 9-23 on the road. The games will be played outdoors and the weather will be much cooler than what the Astros are used to.

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But beyond all that, the biggest factor in determining the outcome of this Wild Card series is whether the Astros offense shows up. It went missing for most of the month of September and the team’s results suffered. If the bats come to play, the team has a chance of winning this series. If they don’t, it’ll be quick exit.

Unfortunately I haven’t seen enough to convince me that the offense will be able to score enough against this solid Twins pitching staff. As I mentioned earlier, their ceiling is incredibly high, but they show no signs of reaching it on a consistent basis. Couple that with the lack of bullpen depth and I don’t see the Astros advancing in the playoffs.

I’ll give the Astros one game, as the offense might break out once or they may get an excellent pitching performance. But this team hasn’t given me any confidence that they’ll be able to reverse their fortunes against a really good team on the road. GM James Click’s first offseason with the club will begin later this week. PREDICTION: Twins in 3

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