Astros: Reviewing the 2015 Ken Giles trade with Phillies

What the Astros Got

The main part of the return was Giles, who was coming off a season in which he pitched to a 1.80 ERA in 69 appearances. He had a career 1.56 ERA in two seasons with the Phillies, so there was every indication he’d be a stud at the back of the bullpen.

His first year in Houston wasn’t ideal, though. He worked to a 4.11 ERA in 69 appearances, with the main culprit being an inflated home run rate. After allowing a total of three home runs in 115.2 innings with the Phillies, he allowed eight long balls in 65.2 innings in 2016. He did strike out 102 batters, but his 1.294 WHIP was just too high.

He was much better in 2017, compiling a 2.30 ERA in 63 appearances with 34 saves. However, Giles was simply awful in the postseason, pitching to an 11.74 ERA, including allowing five runs in 1.2 frames in the World Series. He quickly lost the confidence of manager AJ Hinch, and that likely carried over into the following season.

He made 34 appearances for the Astros in 2018 and put up a 4.99 ERA, mainly due to giving up far too many hits. Giles seemed to have some difficulties with the mental side of the game as well, and it all culminated in him being dealt to the Blue Jays in July in the controversial trade for Roberto Osuna.

The other part of the deal, Jonathan Arauz reached Double-A in 2019. He’s still just 21 but has fallen out of the team’s top 30 prospect rankings thanks to a bat that could best be described as anemic. He’s a career .243 hitter in the minors with little power or stolen base ability.

What the Astros Gave Up

Velasquez made 19 appearances in his rookie year with the Astros in 2015, compiling a 4.37 ERA in seven starts and 12 relief appearances. He’s been in and out of the Phillies’ rotation the past four years, working to a 4.70 ERA in 92 starts and 11 relief appearances. His talent was never in question, but he’s struggled to put it all together in the majors.

Oberholtzer had pitched to a 3.94 ERA in parts of three seasons with the Astros, but didn’t last a full season in Philly. The left-hander put up a 4.83 ERA in 26 relief appearances before going to the Angels on a waiver claim and struggling to an 8.55 ERA in 11 appearances. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since.

Appel is best known for being the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2013, a can’t-miss prospect who simply missed. His star had waned by the time of this trade, and though he did reach Triple-A, he never found success there in three seasons. His last professional season was 2017.

Eshelman reached the majors in 2019, but it was with the Orioles. The Phillies traded him to Baltimore in June 2019 for international bonus slot money, and he proceeded to pitch to a 6.50 ERA in 36 innings.

Harold Arauz has yet to reach the major leagues and is no longer with the Phillies. He pitched for the Cardinals’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2019 with little success. He does have a career 3.96 ERA in the minors, but that’s due to success in the low minors and struggles in the upper minors.

The Final Verdict

If we go from a strict on-field standpoint, the Astros got 1.6 WAR from Giles in the regular season. The Phillies have gotten 4.0 WAR from Velasquez and 0.1 WAR from Oberholtzer. None of the other players played for their new teams in the majors. So from that standpoint, the Phillies won the trade.

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On the other hand, the only player of any real value the Phillies got was Velasquez. While his WAR total is decent, his ERA+ of 91 indicates he’s been nine percent below league average with the Phillies. Giles had an ERA+ of 114 with the Astros, meaning 14 percent above league average.

There’s more to this story, of course. The Astros won the World Series in 2017 in spite of Giles, as his 0-2 record, 11.74 ERA and 2.217 WHIP in the postseason were downright gnarly. They gave up five players to get their closer of the future, and he really only had one regular season in which he pitched like they’d hoped. The other two seasons and his postseason weren’t good at all.

On the flip side, the Phillies only got meaningful contributions from one of the five players they got in this deal. That one player, Velasquez, has been a below average pitcher the past three seasons. So they gave up a potential All-Star closer and got very little in on-field contributions in return.

In truth, the Astros didn’t get a whole lot either. Giles looked like the best version of himself in 2019 with Toronto, of course, but had no shortage of difficulties in Houston. In the end, I would probably call this trade a wash, simply because neither team really got anything close to what they were looking for from this.