Astros: Reviewing the 2010 Roy Oswalt trade with Phillies

We take a look back at the 2010 trade in which the Houston Astros sent Roy Oswalt to the Phillies.

Trading a franchise cornerstone and one of your all-time greatest players is never an easy thing to do. But the 2010 Houston Astros, on their way to a second consecutive losing season and fifth straight season missing the playoffs, finally realized they needed to rebuild. Thus came the trade of longtime ace Roy Oswalt.

Just before the trade deadline on July 29, the Astros sent Oswalt to the Phillies in exchange for outfielder Anthony Gose, pitcher J.A. Happ and infielder Jonathan Villar. GM Ed Wade immediately flipped Gose to Toronto for first baseman Brett Wallace, so we’ll treat these as one overall move.

This trade was a big barometer for both teams. If the Astros nailed it, they could shorten their rebuild and get back into contention sooner. If they missed the mark, it would only take longer to get back into the hunt with a solid young core of players.

The Phillies had won the World Series in 2008 and lost the Series in 2009. Their core was aging, so grabbing Oswalt was their attempt to win another title or two before their window closed. They were hoping to establish a mini-dynasty in the city of brotherly love.

When the dust settled, the Phillies got a major boost to their pitching staff as they prepared to make another playoff run. The Astros came away with three promising young players they hoped to build around for the future. Which team fared better?

What the Astros Gave Up

The Astros lost a player who’d been one of the biggest keys to their success since his debut in 2001. Oswalt went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA in 10 seasons in Houston with three All-Star selections and six top-six finishes in the Cy Young voting. He was one of the faces of the franchise and was just one win away from tying Joe Niekro for the most in club history.

At the time of the trade, he had a 3.42 ERA in 20 starts, though his 6-12 record reflected how poorly his team played behind him. After the trade, he kicked it up a few notches, similar to how Justin Verlander did when the Astros acquired him in 2017.

Oswalt went 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 12 starts and one relief appearance down the stretch for Philly. He also put up a 1.84 ERA in two starts and one relief appearance in the NLCS, but the Phillies lost anyway. He certainly had playoff pedigree, having won the 2005 NLCS MVP award with Houston.

Under contract for one additional season, he made 23 starts in 2011 and went 9-10 with a 3.69 ERA. He made a subpar start in the division series as the Phillies were bounced from the playoffs again, and thus ended his tenure. All told, he gave the team 5.4 WAR in his regular season work in 2010 and 2011.

While he might have been on track for the Hall of Fame, those chances evaporated along with his effectiveness after leaving the Phillies. He signed on with the Rangers for 2012, but struggled to a 5.80 ERA in 59 innings in what was his age-34 season. He was worse in 2013, going 0-6 with an 8.63 ERA in 32.1 innings with the Rockies before calling it quits.

The Final Verdict

When you trade away an All-Star and a franchise cornerstone, you need to get back some real value. It’s hard enough to justify making such a trade to many fans, which is part of the risk of being a GM. But if you’re going to do it, you’d better do it well. Ed Wade missed on this one.

You have to wonder why he traded with his former employer (the Phillies) so frequently, because it’s hard to believe this was the best package he could get. At any rate, from a pure WAR standpoint, the Phillies got 5.4 WAR from Oswalt while the Astros got a combined 0.9 WAR from their trio.

The Phillies also got the benefit of selling high on Happ, as he simply wasn’t the same pitcher after the trade as he had been in Philadelphia. Making a 27-year-old pitcher one of the centerpieces of the return for Oswalt wasn’t a smart move by Wade anyway, as the Astros were about to embark on what was sure to be a lengthy rebuild. They needed someone younger whose prime was at least a few years away.

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I don’t blame Wade for grabbing Wallace. He’d risen quickly through the minors and performed well at all levels, hitting for solid average and power. He continued to hit well whenever he would be sent down to Triple-A, but just could never put it together in the majors. Wallace was the definition of a Four-A player.

The Astros evidently got rid of Villar too quickly, but by the time Jeff Luhnow traded him away, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa had entrenched themselves at the middle infield positions. There was no room for Villar to establish himself by that point, and Sneed is in a position to provide future value to the team. He was solid in limited action in 2019.

Regardless of how that turns out, though, the Phillies won this deal. They got Oswalt’s last good years, and even though they didn’t win a championship with him on their team, it can’t be said it was The Wizard’s fault.

The Astros, meanwhile, only lengthened their rebuild by failing to get any kind of future cornerstone in exchange for Oswalt. This is a trade Wade needed to win, and it simply didn’t happen. The team might have been better off keeping him, letting him grab the franchise wins record, and trading him in the offseason.