Houston Astros: Which players will break out in 2020?

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It’s been 13 days since MLB announced the indefinite delay of Opening Day 2020 and cancelled Spring Training due to coronavirus. It seems like an eternity since we’ve talked about Houston Astros baseball, so let’s project what the start of the season could look like once we’ve flattened the curve and our lives can finally ramp back up with baseball.

When Spring Training opened in February 2020, a total of 59 Houston Astros players reported to FITTEAM Ballpark in West Palm Beach, Florida – 31 pitchers and 28 position players. When Spring Training was cancelled on March 12 due to COVID-19, 42 players remained – 19 pitchers and 23 position players.

Nothing is certain about when Spring Training will start up again and no one knows who will be called to report when it resumes. Giving it a best guess, here are some presumed assumptions about the non-roster invites to camp who have reportedly not yet been optioned or reassigned.

With Jared Hughes requesting his release, when Spring Training does resume, camp will presumably start with 41 players reporting, 33 from the 40-man roster – 17 pitchers and 16 position players – and the remaining eight non-roster invitees could potentially consist of one pitcher and seven position players.

WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 18: Forrest Whitley #68 of the Houston Astros throws a bullpen during a team workout at FITTEAM Ballpark of The Palm Beaches on February 18, 2020 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Pitching

It probably comes as no surprise that Forrest Whitley is the sole remaining pitcher on the potential list of non-roster players that could return to camp. And even with the uncertainty of a date to resume Spring Training, the starting rotation remains in limbo.

With Justin Verlander recovering from both groin surgery and a lat strain, it is yet to be seen whether the Astros will be filling two or three spots in the rotation, at least for the beginning of the year. Of course it goes without saying that the longer we wait for Opening Day, the closer we are to only requiring two spots to be filled in the back of the rotation, numbers four and five.

Regardless of any of that though, it seems quite clear that Whitley is not ready for his debut, at least for the moment. Entering his fifth season with the Astros, Whitley was the 17th overall pick in the 2016 draft straight out of high school. He remains the number one prospect in the Astros farm system.

Whitley only tossed six innings in four games during Spring Training. In this very, very small sample size, he faced 29 hitters, striking out seven, walking three, and one HBP. His 7.50 ERA speaks to his readiness, or rather lack thereof, and is evidence why he likely won’t be considered for the 2020 rotation.

He is the only pitcher not on the roster who could return once Spring Training resumes, and fans are excited for the prospect that he at least makes his debut in the show in 2020. But much of this depends on when the season starts and how long it will be.

HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Martin Maldonado #12 of the Houston Astros throws to first base against the Washington Nationals during the third inning in Game One of the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 22, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

Catching

Dustin Garneau and Martin Maldonado make up the platoon to start the 2020 season. Possibly slated to return once camp resumes, however, is Jamie Ritchie.

The Astros drafted Ritchie in the 13th round of the 2014 draft. Ritchie’s nine games and 15 PAs in Spring Training weren’t all that impressive, but he does have a career minor league .270 BA. It seems doubtful that Ritchie has much of a chance to make his debut this year, especially with Garrett Stubbs waiting in the proverbial wings and seemingly first in line.

In fact, at this point in time, it seems likely that the 26th man on the roster is a battle between Stubbs and Myles Straw. This decision could prove difficult as both are versatile players who have shown some real promise offensively during their short time in camp earlier this year.

Because of his slight edge in speed, this spot likely goes to Straw, but Stubbs is no slouch. And even though it’s quite a long shot, the Astros couldn’t be accused of making a mistake if they opted for Stubbs in this slot. This would certainly provide some depth at the backstop position, one of just a few positions that Straw has not yet been given an opportunity to play.

HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 29: Abraham Toro #13 of the Houston Astros hits his first MLB home run in the ninth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Minute Maid Park on August 29, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

Infielder Surprises

With Jack Mayfield and Abraham Toro seeming to be locks for the probable call-ups in the case of potential injuries in the infield, there were a couple of players in camp who might just prove to be competition for these slots.

For starters, let’s consider Alex De Goti. Selected in the 15th round of the 2016 draft, De Goti plays a variety of positions. Perhaps the 25-year old is a shoo-in as the up and coming utility guy, playing some left field, moving around the infield a bit, and even appearing in three games for three innings as a relief pitcher in 2019.

Most interesting with De Goti is his offense. Batting .300 in Spring Training in 14 games with 23 PAs, he carried a minor league average of .277 in 2019, hitting 29 doubles with 15 homers and 70 RBIs in 125 games.

Second up is Jeremy Pena who was drafted in the third round in June of 2018. Playing mostly shortstop with a few appearances at third base, his slow start in Spring Training could be overlooked because of his 2019 minor league BA of .303 and .825 OPS. This was his first year in Spring Training and it’s encouraging for him that he has not yet been reassigned.

The third infielder that could possibly return to spring training is Nick Tanielu. Picked up in the 14th round of the 2014 draft, Tanielu enters his seventh season in the Astros system. In 2019, he tied fifth in the Pacific Coast League for the most doubles, 39. His small sample size so far in 2020 spring camp cannot compare to his 2019 minor league numbers, but he seems to be a fan favorite to make his debut in 2020.

SEATTLE, WA – JULY 31: Kyle Tucker #3 of the Houston Astros connects with the ball for a line out to left field against the Seattle Mariners in the at Safeco Field on July 31, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images) /

Outfielder Queries

The outfield seems a bit more crucial to determine from a perspective of depth, this being the contract year for George Springer. Both Josh Reddick and Michael Brantley also both become FAs at the end of the 2020 season.

The outfield has been something the Astros have always had a bit of depth in, but with trades at the deadline last year, it’s an area where our farm system needs to step up. Let’s have a look at what we saw during the short stint at Spring Training.

That Kyle Tucker gets a fair number of starts in right field, platooning with Reddick, seems to be a given at this point. It also seems highly unlikely that Tucker won’t be on the 26-man roster to begin the season.

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The outfield situation also weighs in favor of Straw becoming that 26th man since it is likely that Straw becomes a starter in the outfield in 2021. If for nothing else, this makes it crucial for him to see ample playing time in 2020. From a perspective of depth, though, we’ve got three outfielders who will hopefully see more playing time once Spring Training resumes.

Ronnie Dawson will be a much-needed left handed hitter who happens to play center field. While Dawson’s early spring training numbers were less than impressive this year, his minor league playing history seems to indicate he has some potential for power, especially with regular playing time. Dawson’s overall BA in the minors averages at .245, but his historic numbers include some seasons over the .250 mark and indicate he has some power with an OPS that is not altogether horrible.

On the flipside, Drew Ferguson moves around the outfield a bit, playing mostly center field. Ferguson has some pretty impressive minor league career numbers and an overall batting average of .293 with an OPS of .845. Drafted in the 19th round in 2015, Ferguson was returned to Houston in March of 2019 after being DFA’d by the San Francisco Giants who drafted him in the Rule 5 draft of 2018.

This brings us to Chas McCormick who was selected in the 21st round of the 2017 draft. McCormick mostly plays in left field and appeared in 15 games this year in Spring Training. McCormick’s defense was memorable even if his minor career league BA of .276 was not reflected in camp, though sample sizes are very small.

None of these three outfielders were completely stellar in the short time they were at camp this spring, but it’s hopeful that we’ll see some impressive play once camp resumes.

While the uncertainty of the 2020 season weighs heavily on the minds of baseball fans, we can only imagine how the players are feeling. We’re two weeks into the projected eight-week season delay, and the dog days of summer are creeping closer and closer.

Next. Best individual seasons in Astros history - first base. dark

For now, stay safe and we’ll all enjoy the highlight reels for a bit longer as we anticipate the announcement of Opening Day 2020.

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