Astros: Zack Greinke sustains success through evolution

Houston Astros pitcher Zack Greinke has managed to remain successful despite changes to his arsenal.

When the Astros acquired Zack Greinke at the trade deadline in 2019, the excitement was palpable among the Houston faithful. His addition gave the team a third ace alongside Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, and it got them just a few outs shy of another World Series championship.

Greinke, however, is an entirely different kind of pitcher than Verlander and Cole. In fact, he’s an entirely different kind of pitcher than he was earlier in his career. While Verlander has defied nature and maintained his elite velocity through his mid-30s, Greinke has adapted to the loss of zip on his fastball and managed to remain at the top of his game.

To highlight this evolution, I’ll compare his 2019 season, in which he won 18 games with a 2.93 ERA at age 35, and his 2009 season, in which he won 16 games with a 2.16 ERA and won the AL Cy Young Award at age 25.

Peripheral Stats

As expected, Greinke’s strikeout rate was higher in 2009. He struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings, totaling a career-high 242 strikeouts in 229.1 innings. In 2019, he fanned 8.1 batters per nine, which is still a solid rate for someone who doesn’t rely on strikeouts as much.

But his walk rate also declined. He walked just 1.3 batters per nine innings in 2019, down from 2.0 per nine in 2009. His home run rate in 2009 was abnormally low at 0.4 per nine, but his 2019 rate was still good at 0.9, despite the barrage of home runs across the league.

Although his WHIP was better in 2019 (0.982) than 2009 (1.073), the ERA+ and FIP stats liked his 2009 season better, since he prevented runs more effectively despite allowing more baserunners. Still, his 2019 WHIP was the second-best mark of his career, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio was a career high.

Velocity

Thanks to Statcast, we can take a closer look at his pitches. It’s no secret that Greinke’s fastball velocity has dropped. In 2009, he averaged a robust 94.3 mph on his four-seamer. For 2019, that dropped to 89.9, the second straight season it was under 90 mph. Interestingly, though, its effectiveness didn’t budge. Batters hit .240 off of it in 2009 and .242 in 2019.

What’s interesting, though, is how his changeup has evolved. There was nearly a full 10 mph difference between the change (84.4 mph) and the four-seamer (94.3 mph) in 2009. For 2019, the difference was only 2.5 mph. The changeup’s velocity actually increased (to 87.4 mph).

Despite that, the change was more effective in 2019. Batters hit .364 off it in 2009 but just .194 in 2019. Statcast only has pitch movement tracking for seasons starting with 2015, but just in that time, the vertical movement of Greinke’s changeup has increased. So we can surmise that the change is more effective thanks to its depth rather than its difference in velocity.

His curveball and slider have both seen decreased velocity and increased movement. The curve averaged 72.5 mph in 2009 and 70.6 mph in 2019, while the slider averaged 86.1 mph in 2009 and 83.7 mph in 2019. Since 2015, both the horizonal and vertical movement on the slider and curve have increased.

Greinke’s sinker, which is a pitch the Astros have tended to discourage pitchers from using, checked in at 90.4 mph in 2019, a fall from 94.2 mph in 2009. It’s not been particularly effective throughout his career, however, as batters hit .293 against it in 2009 and .390 in 2019.

The Breakdown

Now that we’ve looked at all the numbers, what do they mean in the grand scheme of things? If you want to boil it all down to one statement, it’s that despite decreased velocity, Greinke has remained effective thanks to increased movement on his pitches.

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He’s also cut down on the free passes, which limits the amount of baserunners he allows. He’s going to give up his share of hits since he doesn’t have the ability to blow his fastball by hitters any longer, and the lack of difference in velocity between his fastballs and his changeup may induce more contact since hitters can time them better.

But the increased break means the contact he does induce will typically be of the soft variety. We saw this in his brilliant start for the Astros in Game Seven of the World Series when he did just that against the Nationals hitters. Add in the fact that he’s a superior defensive player and you’ve got the makings of someone who can keep hitters off balance and eat innings.

The most accurate adjective to describe Greinke at this point in his career is “crafty.” He’s not quite the Greg Maddux type, who used superior command to paint the corners and fool hitters. He’s the type who’ll throw several different pitches and make it difficult for hitters to guess what’s coming or get the barrel to the ball.

Since he’s evolved into the crafty type who doesn’t rely on velocity, he should continue to age relatively well. As long as he’s healthy and can locate his pitches, he should be able to get hitters out at this level.

This is important as the Astros have him under contract for two more seasons. If he continues to be effective, it could be worth re-signing him beyond that to watch him chase some important milestones and continue to be a veteran example to the club’s young pitchers.