Houston Astros: An overview of the offseason possibilities

I know. I totally get it. It’s still fresh. Astros fans are still very distressed, if not depressed, that we were only eight outs away from landing another championship.

There are a lot of “what if” scenarios floating around on social media and some are just not very nice. Let’s flip the script a little bit. The 2019 Astros are not finished making the headlines.

With our Golden Glove and Silver Slugger in Zack Greinke, he is only the second pitcher in MLB history to ever get both. (Former Astro, Mike Hampton, won in 2003 when he was with the Atlanta Braves.) Oh yeah, and Greinke leads all pitchers in OBP.

George Springer won his second Silver Slugger award and Alex Bregman won his first career Silver Slugger award.

Yordan Alvarez was named the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year with a unanimous vote from the BBWAA. All to be revealed by Friday, the Astros are likely candidates to clean up in the rest of the awards with one of either Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlander being a shoo-in for the AL Cy Young award and, by some accounts, Alex Bregman is a lock for the AL MVP.

The GM meetings started yesterday in Arlington, and Winter Meetings begin the first week of December. If history is any teacher, though, it’s unlikely any real moves will be made by the Astros before or during the Winter Meetings, and it’s even more likely nothing of significance happens until we get closer to Spring Training.

(Just in case you haven’t already marked your calendar and started counting off the days, catchers and pitchers report between February 11 and 14, a mere 91 days from the writing of this article.)

A lot of discussion is being had about the luxury tax threshold and some calculations indicate that, even without signing Cole, we’re up against that threshold anyway, facing an overage of close to $40M. But to me, it’s not my money. Why do I need to worry about how much it will cost this team to win next season? Someone else, who gets paid way more than I do, has the job of figuring all of that out.

Me? I’m just a fan. A fan that, like the team, wants another championship trophy. And just like everyone else, it took me a minute to get over the Game 7 loss. With the help of looking forward, however, I’m on the mend. We fought hard, the Nat’s earned their win, and sometimes, you’ve just got to tip your cap and move on.

In the interest of moving on, let’s just fantasize a little bit and talk about some moves that could happen before opening day in 2020, a mere 135 days away.

Defining our needs:

Let’s first address our needs, not our desires. We’re losing quite a few players, mostly pitchers, to free agency. At the moment, we’re in need of at least one, if not two, starters and at least four relievers, not to mention at least one, if not two, catchers.

By now, we all know (or at least we all should know) about Cole, but there are probably some that don’t realize that Will Harris, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon, and Collin McHugh are also all free agents. In addition, with Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado both free agents, we’ve got no catchers, except for Garrett Stubbs.

Chris Devenski had a team option that was not exercised, so he’s back to arbitration. Devo and Aaron Sanchez are part of the rumor mills as possibilities for being non-tendered, which would make them both free agents. With the possible addition of these two to the FA market, that leaves our bullpen quite skimpy — at least at the moment.

Can Dreams Actually Come True?

Ideally, we keep both Chirinos and Maldonado. They come relatively cheap and they know most of our staff. With Chirinos becoming JV’s personal catcher this past season, he seems to be a lock to get an offer from the Astros. Maldonado was extremely relieved to come back at the trade deadline, so one would think that there’s room for negotiations to keep him in the fold.

They would both be good mentors to train the young Garrett Stubbs, as well. Win-win!

I believe it is highly likely that the Astros non-tender Chris Devenski. Aaron Sanchez is slated to miss at least half of the season in 2020 recovering from shoulder surgery, and while non-tendering him would make some room in the budget, I personally think it would behoove the team to hang on to him on the IL. He could prove to be a sneaky weapon to add to the rotation or the pen mid-season.

I think we can look for offers to be made both to Will Harris and Joe Smith. Between the two of them, predictions are they each will garner interest for two-year contracts. These are two veteran arms who both performed very well in 2019, including the postseason, and who would most likely come as a great comfort to AJ Hinch to have back in the pen.

Let’s talk starters, though.

With Lance McCullers, Jr., coming back from Tommy John surgery, he’s likely going to be micro-managed and his inning count kept to a minimum. But wow! Verlander, Greinke, and McCullers is a 1-2-3 punch that should prove to be very daunting for any lineup to face.

Necessary Creativity:

This brings us to more fantasizing. Let’s talk a little bit about just a few of the creative moves that could make room for Cole to sign a contract with the Astros.

For instance, budget room could be made by dealing Roberto Osuna. And before you bite my head off, hear me out. Moving Osuna may not seem likely, but it could relieve a lot of the PR issues we all witnessed as a result of the Taubman mishap right before the World Series. Plus, Harris and/or Pressly could both make legitimate arguments for becoming our regular closers.

Kyle Tucker made quite a case for becoming a permanent addition to the starting lineup. Josh Reddick could prove to be a challenge to move because of what he is owed on this year’s contract and the fact that he becomes a FA after next season. But arguably, this could be a move that would also help to make room for Cole in the budget. Maybe we deal him with Chris Devenski and/or Joe Biagini for some prospects to help rebuild our farm system.

But let’s not forget about Wade Miley.  Will he be back? He could be an affordable option. Personally, I think he’s a long shot to return just because of his troubles late into the season. I also think we have other priorities that would make more sense over Miley.

One thing is for sure, our pitching staff looks much different in the 2020 season.

Jeff Luhnow will definitely earn his title and his income this offseason in the creativity it will require for him to figure out ways to spend in order to round out our team coming into the spring. Either way, our farm system was taxed in 2019 and we should look to avoid any major trades or pickups, looking instead to keeping some of the FAs who have proven to become valuable to our culture and our performance.

Are you getting excited yet? Because I, for one, am super excited for news about our acquisitions and moves as this offseason unfolds, and I am hoping beyond hope that we don’t have to wait 45 to 90 days to find out what some of these moves will be.

Go Astros! Let’s #BringitHome in 2020!!!