Astros: Predicting Gerrit Cole's next team, contract

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CTH writers make their predictions for Astros ace Gerrit Cole‘s next destination and payday.

Today marks the first day that free agents can negotiate and sign with other teams, meaning Astros ace Gerrit Cole is now open for business — or, rather, his agent Scott Boras is. Cole is the offseason’s premier free agent and should have no shortage of teams with legitimate interest.

He is coming off a dominant two-year run with the Astros, posting a 35-10 record and 2.68 ERA with 602 strikeouts in 65 regular season starts. He also has a career 2.60 ERA in the postseason, so there’s no Clayton Kershaw effect with him.

Helping his case even further is he just turned 29 years old in September, so he should still have a few prime years left to give his next team. He’s also durable, having made 32 or more starts in four of the last five years.

In short, Cole is a bona fide ace and should continue to be for at least a few seasons, meaning he has more value than any free agent pitcher we’ve seen in quite some time. His list of suitors will be long, and Boras will be sure to extract every dollar he can.

The Astros will surely be interested in a reunion, and undoubtedly Cole would be willing to return to Houston if the price is right. Fans will be clamoring for his return as well, but how likely is it? Well, it depends on who you ask.

With that in mind, your friendly CTH writers offer their predictions on where Cole will land and just how much money he’ll end up getting.

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 27: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros delivers the pitch against the Washington Nationals during the sixth inning in Game Five of the 2019 World Series at Nationals Park on October 27, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

Brian Murray

The 2019 season has passed us by and is nothing but a memory, and now it’s that time of year when everyone begins to focus on the next season. What will the 2020 roster look like? Who will be re-signed and what trades will transpire in the offseason?

One of the biggest question marks going into next season is who will be the five pitchers in their starting rotation. In 2018, the Astros lost Charlie Morton to free agency and now a year later, Houston is on the verge of losing strikeout leader Gerrit Cole.

As Cole gave his heartfelt goodbye message to Houston, the fans were clamoring for GM Jeff Luhnow and the front office to not let him go. Sign him up to another contract! But as great as that would be, is it really feasible?

Unfortunately, the Astros are already finding themselves cash-strapped with just 19 players on their current 25-man active roster. It would take some miraculous maneuvering to fit a contract the size of what Cole will demand into their payroll. Luhnow has pulled off some pretty spectacular deals, but I think even this one is beyond his realm.

It will take a team with deep pockets to be able to sign what may be a record deal for a pitcher, especially with Scott Boras as Cole’s agent. The teams that fit that description and are in the hunt for a top starter are the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Nationals, just to name a few.

The Nationals will want to replace Stephen Strasburg, who opted out of the final year of his contract. The Yankees got close to acquiring Cole in 2017, so there is an obvious attraction there, not to mention Cole was apparently a lifelong Yankee fan. The Phillies are determined to do whatever it takes to get back into competition with the Nats and the Braves. There are rumors that Cole would like to go back home to the West Coast.

My gut feeling is that Philadelphia is the team that is the most desperate, although you never know what’s going to happen in the offseason. Sometimes a team that no one suspects will come out of the woodwork and snatch up a top free agent like Cole. So if Cole doesn’t sign back up for Houston, which I seriously doubt, my odds on favorite are the Phillies.

Whoever Cole signs with for the 2020 season, I wish him the best of luck. Just please, please don’t let it be the New York Yankees.

Prediction: Phillies — Seven years, $240 million

HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros delivers the pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning in Game One of the 2019 World Series at Minute Maid Park on October 22, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Andrew Gleinser

Keeping Cole in an Astros uniform is a worthy goal, and Jeff Luhnow and Jim Crane should be putting forth every effort to make it happen. But when looking at the team’s payroll, I don’t see a legitimate way they can afford it.

With extensions for Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman kicking in, as well as arbitration raises for several key players including George Springer, Carlos Correa and Roberto Osuna, the Astros payroll for 2020 is projected to be hovering around $200 million — and that’s before filling any other holes. Both catchers are free agents, as are key relievers Will Harris and Joe Smith.

Paying Cole north of $30 million a year would push the team well over the $208 million luxury tax threshold, which Crane has stated he does not want to surpass. If they’re intent on keeping Cole, it would require trading both Josh Reddick and George Springer, in all likelihood. Reddick is probably gone regardless, but losing Springer may not be worth it.

As far as other teams go, there should be plenty of interest. In the National League, I would expect the Phillies and Nationals to have some interest, as the Phillies need pitching and the Nationals may lose Stephen Strasburg. Cole is from southern California, so I would not be surprised to see the Padres try and splurge on an ace to go with their strong young core. You also can’t count out the Dodgers with their seemingly endless resources.

In the AL, of course the Yankees will be in the mix, and I expect them to be there right until the end. They have a clear need and plenty of money (they’re the Yankees, after all). But the team I expect him to end up with is close to home for him and has the need and resources to get him. Unfortunately for the Astros, it’s the division rival Angels.

The Angels haven’t been able to field a strong pitching staff for years, and they lack a true ace. They also have the game’s best player, Mike Trout, locked up through 2030, but he’s only seen the postseason once. They have to be desperate to capitalize on his prime, and signing Cole would be a big step in that direction.

Plus, they’ve shown the propensity to give out mega contracts to players. They gave Trout north of $400 million, and they guaranteed $240 million to Albert Pujols, $125 million to Josh Hamilton and $75 million to C.J. Wilson. Owner Arte Moreno will open the pocketbook for the right player, and who better than Cole?

It puts him close to home and will of course make him the highest paid pitcher in the game. It’s true that he probably won’t win as much in Anaheim as he would in Houston, but the Angels giving Cole a fleet of Brinks trucks would at least show him they’re committed to winning. He’ll pair with Shohei Ohtani atop the team’s rotation and be backed by Trout and some other solid position players.

With Cole’s relative youth and impeccable track record, I think he easily surpasses David Price‘s record total guarantee for a pitcher. With the Yankees and others in the bidding, his price could soar well past that. In the end, I think the Angels outbid everyone and bring Cole home.

Prediction: Angels — 8 years, $275 million

HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 10: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros is interviewed in the locker room following his teams 6-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays in game five of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 10, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

Karen Watson

Gerrit Cole is arguably the very best pitcher in the game coming out of 2019 and entering the offseason. Earlier in the season, comments made by him led all to believe it was a given that he wanted to test free agency to see what was on the other side.

After a season yielding 107 wins in the regular season and 10 more postseason wins for the Astros, it seems to me that he may be having some second thoughts because, after all, winning is fun. And while there are a couple of teams that do have that winning ability, few have the winning mentality of the Astros.

He and his wife have made Houston their home for the past two years, and both have made comments in recent interviews that seem to indicate they’d be happy to stay here. From friends in his teammates to those in their wives and girlfriends, neither one seems like they would be hard to convince to stay in H-Town.

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Putting all of this aside, can the Astros realistically pull this off? The payroll commitments coming up in the next few years are seemingly insurmountable, starting with this being the first year that they will cover all of Justin Verlander‘s salary. When it comes to avoiding the luxury tax thresholds, some creative moves would most definitely have to be made in order to make room for what Cole will most certainly command and arguably deserves.

He is likely to become one of the highest-paid pitchers in the game, especially if money is his driving factor. And while no one faults him his justly earned payday, a lot hinges on whether or not Cole would be willing to compromise with the Astros in order to stay. A lot also hinges on which teams actually seriously pursue him, and it stands to reason that a fair number of them will. Already, rumors are the Yankees and the Angels are the two most interested.

Assumptions in the media have been made that he would like to stay in the California area close to home. But he has recently been quoted as saying that he never said that was his desire. Because of this and the recent interviews clarifying his misconstrued post-Game Seven comments, I think it is a safe bet that he is open to negotiating with the Astros.

As the Astros strive to make it all work, there are a lot of moves that could be made that would make it possible to sign him. Arguably, though, these would be very controversial and many think highly unlikely.

Personally, I think the Astros will come up with a creative way to keep him. If he is even remotely interested in staying in H-Town and continuing to play with a team that has one of the best cultures in baseball, I think he will be willing to get creative along with the front office in order to figure out something that works for both sides.

Like I said, there are very creative ways this could happen, but I don’t want to be responsible for starting any rumors. Considering the ways it could work, moves would include unpopular trades and perhaps some form of signing bonus and/or deferred salary on the back end of a contract offer.

Reading between the lines, I really think that both Cole and the Astros want this relationship to continue. It’s just a matter of figuring out how to make the numbers work for both sides. I truly believe the Astros will compete to keep him and I am optimistic that he will be wearing the orange and blue in 2020.

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One thing is for sure — Cole is looking at a very large payday. The questions still remain: What would he be willing to accept? What can the Astros creatively afford? He’s worth upwards of $198 million for six years, which some teams can easily afford. Is Cole willing to compromise a bit to stay where he admittedly loves to play, and could they possibly come to terms somewhere in the middle?

Prediction: Astros — Four years, $120 million with an option for two more years at $75 million

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Astros: Predicting Gerrit Cole’s next team, contract