Astros vs Nationals: CTH writers World Series predictions

The Climbing Tal’s Hill writers offer their predictions for the Astros World Series matchup with the Nationals.

For the second time in three years, the Houston Astros find themselves in the World Series. This is an incredible time to be an Astros fan, having just witnessed them knock off the Yankees in the ALCS.

This is shaping up to be an incredible Fall Classic. Both teams boast incredible starting rotations and plenty of star power. Each will be tested thoroughly, and only the best will come away with the championship.

There’s plenty of intrigue and plenty of things to analyze about this match-up. With that in mind, your friendly Climbing Tal’s Hill writers have put together their analyses and predictions for this World Series match-up.

Will any of us pick against the Astros? Continue on to find out.

Andrew Gleinser

While some have said that the ALCS was the de facto World Series, that couldn’t be farther from the truth. The Nationals will present a test as tough as any the Astros have faced up to this point. They took down the Dodgers and blew through the Cardinals, after all.

Looking at the teams’ lineups, the Astros have an edge, but not by much. The Nationals lineup isn’t as deep, but there are plenty of potent bats. They have their own MVP candidate in Anthony Rendon along with a mix of top young talent (Juan Soto, Victor Robles), seasoned veterans (Howie Kendrick, Ryan Zimmerman) and key contributors (Trea Turner, Adam Eaton).

However, the Nationals are probably the only team that can match the Astros in starting rotation prowess. In fact, there’s an argument to be made that their rotation is even better. The Astros have Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, but essentially lack a fourth starter.

The Nationals, meanwhile, have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin as their top three. Trying to argue one group is better than the other would be splitting hairs, though the Nats don’t have someone who’s on the same incredible roll that Cole is on.

They do, however, have Anibal Sanchez as their fourth starter, and he’s pitched well this postseason. He allowed one run in five innings against the Dodgers and tossed 7.2 scoreless frames against the Cardinals. They’ll need him to pitch well, because the Nats do have one significant weakness.

Battle of the Bullpens?

The Nationals bullpen was one of the major league’s worst, and they really only have a few guys they can rely on. Closer Sean Doolittle and setup man Daniel Hudson are going to get the most important innings, and they’re going to be tough to beat.

But the key for the Astros offense is to get the Nationals starters out of the game in six innings or less. Doolittle and Hudson can’t pitch every relief inning, and they could get worn down over a long series. That’s a big advantage the Astros will need to exploit.

Prediction: Astros in 6

This won’t be an easy series, but the bullpen advantage may be too much for Washington to overcome. Gerrit Cole earns World Series MVP after winning both of his starts.

Brian Murray

The World Series is upon us and the Houston Astros will be facing the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night at Minute Maid Park. This will be the Nationals’ first trip to the World Series while the Astros have been there three times, and twice in the last three years.

This may seem like a David vs Goliath battle; after all, the Astros were the best team in baseball and the Nationals got in via the Wild Card route. But the Nationals did beat out the Dodgers in five games and then went on to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals. Plus, six Wild Card teams have gone on to win the World Series, so anything is possible. Let’s take a look at these two and see how things look on paper.

The Offenses

The Astros had arguably the best offense in the Majors this season, just edging out the Yankees and the Dodgers with an OPS+ of 119. The Nationals were tied with two other teams at 100. Houston’s slash line for 2019 was .274/.352/495, all three numbers tops in the League. Washington slash line numbers of .265/.342/.454 were all in the Top 10 with their OBP second behind the Astros.

Houston actually led the Nationals in every offensive category except one — stolen bases. Washington has a speedy team, stealing the third most times at 116, while the Astros were pretty far down the list with 67.

Neither team is tearing it up in the postseason, but that’s in the past and this is a whole new series, so all stats reset. I have to give the Astros a big edge over the Nationals with the more potent lineup.

Pitching Staff

Again the Astros had one of the best, if not the best, pitching staffs in baseball. They sat at the top of the Majors with an ERA+ of 127 and the Nationals were 11th with a 108 ERA+. Houston had the third-best ERA while Washington was 12th with a 3.66 and 4.27 respectively.

The starting pitchers of the Nationals edge out the Astros in the ERA category (3.53 to 3.61) and also in WAR (21.4 to 19.4). The bullpen is where the difference really stands out. The Nationals relievers had the second-worst ERA for the season with a 5.68, while the Astros came in second with a 3.75, and Houston also had the better WAR at 4.3 vs Washington’s 0.9.

The Astros top three starters are all in the top ten in the Majors and are unmatched in my opinion, but the fourth game is a whole other story. But overall, I have to give the nod to the Astros for the better pitching staff.

Prediction: Astros in 6

As we well know, anything can happen in the postseason. Look at the Astros offense in the playoffs compared to what they did in the regular season — a huge dropoff in production. But as I said earlier, it all starts over, it’s a new best-of-seven series. I’m going to predict that the Houston Astros will be crowned the World Series Champions, defeating Washington in six games.

James Wehr

Here we are, Houston, at the brink of fulfilling the hashtag that was set forth to begin the season. Coming off what can only be called the best ALCS series in recent memory, the Astros have a rotation that is fully rested, a bullpen that is battle-tested and an offense that is still trying to find its legs. Let’s dive into the match up and see how sneaky good this World Series will be.

Catcher – Winner: Astros, by fractions

At one point, the Astros would have claimed the catching position a massive weakness. However, in recent games, it has been one of the bright spots due in large to the ability to call games and gun down runners.

The Nationals get their main backstop back in Kurt Suzuki. His offensive output is a major plus in favor of the Nationals, however his ability to limit runners on the basepaths is a negative, only throwing out five runners in 50 attempts over the course of the season. Look for the Astros to add either Myles Straw to the fold, or give George Springer, Jose Altuve and Jake Marisnick the green light if they get on base. This could be a changing point of this series.

First Base – Winner: Nationals – Zimmerman/Kendrick

The Nationals have a rotation of Howie Kendrick and Ryan Zimmerman at first. Yuli Gurriel has been holding down first since the beginning of the season for the Astros. Coming off an ALCS where he went 2-23, Gurriel propelled the Astros scoring in the top of the 1st in game 6. Hopefully this is a boost to his offensive production and the Astros get July-August Yuli back.

On the flip side, Zimmerman has had a very solid postseason acquiring a .280 average. His lone home run came in a dagger game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kendrick has also had a postseason to remember and was the MVP of the NLCS. Nationals hold the edge.

Second Base – Winner: Astros – Altuve

What else can be said about the face of the Astros franchise? His postseason numbers are out of this world. He leads MLB currently with five home runs in the post season. His walk-off hit to put away the Yankees will go down as single best moment in Astros history, baring maybe Uncle Charlie Morton coming in and shutting down the Dodgers for the Astros first World Series win. This is an easy prediction. Altuve wins, and there’s no one who could dethrone him.

3rd Base – Push

Alex Bregman is slumping just a little and the Nationals’ Anthony Rendon has been nothing but consistent this postseason. Look for Rendon to bear the RBIs for the Nationals this series. A la D.J. LeMahieu, Rendon has a knack for just finding hits.

Bregman has had an MVP caliber season, so it would be foolish to write him off for this series. Look for Bregman to find his swing again and propel the Astros to at least one win.

Shortstop – Winner: Astros – Correa

While his bat has been a little off kilter, his arm strength definitely hasn’t. If a ball is hit to Correa, 10 out of 10 times the runner will be out at first. With the ability to change the game’s momentum with one throw, look for Correa to nail the Nationals speedsters as they bust down the line.

Speaking of speedsters, Correa’s counterpart Trea Turner will be a terror on the basepaths for the Astros. His speed could help the Nationals out in the long run.

Outfield – Winner: Astros

Michael Brantley has shown he still has it to make Gold Glove caliber catches. Springer holds the club record for post season home runs, and Reddick is a web-gem highlight reel.

Juan Soto is a massive presence for the Nationals, Victor Robles’ speed will be an issue and Adam Eaton can still slug with the best of them. However, the Astros just put down the likes of Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks with no problem. The Nationals defense in the outfield will be tested and Robles will be the key to track down all the deep balls shot into the outfield.

Rotation – Push

The main storyline will be the starting pitching for the World Series. This is baseball at its finest. Any of the top three pitchers can be interchanged as who has the upper hand. Max Scherzer will most definitely be a problem, but the Astros will match him with Gerrit Cole. Stephen Strasburg, meet Justin Verlander. Against Patrick Corbin, there’s Zack Greinke.

This is by far the most intriguing part of this series. We will see chess match after chess match. If I had to absolutely make a prediction, the Astros win out in this category, however it’s not that easy.

Bullpen – Winner: Astros

Another “weak spot” for the Astros, the bullpen single-handedly came in and did what they needed to do. Roberto Osuna will struggle here and there, however against the Nationals, he will regain his form. Jose Urquidy and Brad Peacock are major weapons that can come in and overtake the Nationals. If Ryan Pressly misses time, look to Bryan Abreu lock down the 7th inning spot.

The Nationals, however, do have some good parts. Namely the 1-2-3 punch of Roenis Elias, Daniel Hudson and Sean Doolittle. However, the Astros have won walk-offs off much bigger names than Doolittle.

Prediction: Astros in 5

I’ve said it once before, if the Astros win Game One, I have a strong feeling they sweep the series, especially if the Nationals throw Scherzer. However, I feel like the Astros go up 3-0 and the Nationals get desperate and steal one game away from the Astros. They will bring in Scherzer from the pen in Game Four, thus leaving them vulnerable in Game Five.

Brett Chancey

The Houston Astros are headed back to the World Series, and not against the LA Dodgers, but the Washington Nationals. You know, the team that Bryce Harper exited for more money, the team that everyone said should rebuild. Well now they face our Astros in a match-up that surprisingly seems to be a heavyweight bout of a pitching and hitting match-up.

In Game One, the Astros will have Gerrit Cole squaring off against Max Scherzer. The Astros normally have Justin Verlander going as their first starter but as the games have gone, Cole gets the Game One start in his first career World Series start.

Even with Verlander as the ace of this club, no one would dispute that Cole is the one you want going in Game One. His dominance is second to none and he’s absolutely pitching out of his mind.

Game Predictions: Astros in 5

Game One in my mind will be a low scoring affair as I think both starters will take the game into the 7th innings. I believe where the Astros have the advantage is in the bullpen. The Astros will strike first with a couple miscues by the Nationals. George Springer starts the game with a lead off home run, and Cole will surrender a solo shot to up and coming star Juan Soto just over the reach of Josh Reddick in right field.

The Astros will get another run across from a bloop single from Reddick, and I believe going into the 7th inning the Astros will have 2-1 lead. As the game goes into the 8th inning the Astros will tack on 3 more runs making it 5-1 Houston.

Roberto Osuna will not come in with the four-run lead and Will Harris will get the save after one run is surrendered by Joe Smith in the top of the 8th inning. The Astros escape Game One 5-2, and go up 1-0 in the World Series.

In Game Two, Verlander goes 7 2/3 innings, allowing two runs and two walks with 11 strikeouts. Stephen Strasburg will go six innings and strike out eight, but allow five walks and three earned runs. Astros hitters go 5-for-9 with RISP (Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel both hit homers). Astros win 9-3 and take a 2-0 World Series lead.

In Game Three, Zack Greinke throws 6 innings, allowing one run on six hits and two walks. For the Nationals, Patrick Corbin goes five innings and strikes out four, but gives up seven hits and five earned runs. The Astros bullpen goes three scoreless innings, allowing three hits and striking out six.

For the Astros hitters, Yordan Alvarez gets his first postseason home run. Jose Altuve goes 3-for-4 with two doubles and a homer. Springer, Reddick and Carlos Correa all have RBIs. Astros win 7-2 to take a 3-0 series lead.

Game Four is the bullpen game, and the Astros fall in this one 6-5. The Nationals go up in the first inning 3-0, the Astros tie it up in the 7th but the Nationals come out on top. Astros lead the World Series 3-1.

In Game Five, Cole puts together a start for the ages, striking out 13 and allowing one run with three walks, only surrendering one hit — a solo shot by Anthony Rendon. Astros hitters leave only two on base with Bregman, Springer and Martin Maldonado all going deep. Astros win Game Five 7-2 and win the World Series 4-1.

Jason Lyons

With the Astros starting pitching and the Nationals starting pitching both being as strong as they are, much like the Yankees series I expect this series to come down to the bullpens and situational hitting. While the Astros weren’t great in the ALCS at situational hitting, or the ALDS for that matter, they were better than the two teams they were facing.

Also, the small things like baserunning and defense will be crucial. As long as the Astros can get a lead, I think our bullpen can hold off the Nats. The rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez is tough, but as long as we can put up two or three runs in a few games I think we’ll be good.

I had a dream last night that the Astros put up a 10 spot in the third inning on Scherzer. Foreshadowing? Maybe, although I don’t expect any blowouts in this series. All in all I expect the Astros to win it in five or six games, especially with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole pitching four out of the possible seven games.

Key players

Will Harris — He’s flat out been dominant all season. The best season of his career has led him to this moment. He’s the stopper out of the pen, the concrete wall that halts all rallies. Continued dominance from him will only bode well for the Astros.

Alex Bregman — He had an incredible regular season in what could lead to an MVP award, but he hasn’t necessarily been tearing the cover off the ball this postseason. He’s made consistent hard contact, as many Astros hitters have, but has yet to see results.

Juan Soto — The dynamic young outfielder with power and all the ability in the world will be on the biggest stage of them all. It’ll be interesting to see if he can withstand the pressure.

The Nationals rotation — Many of the Astros offensive players have good numbers against numerous starters for the Nationals. It’ll be intriguing to see if the trend continues. Albeit in small sample sizes, having seen pitchers before only helps the Astros hitters.

Justin Putnal

The narrative everybody will be discussing when the Astros and Nationals take the field on Tuesday night will be starting pitching, and rightly so. This is a match-up featuring six of the top 16 ERAs in all of baseball, not to mention half of the league’s Top 10 strikeout pitchers as well. So with starting pitching being nearly a wash (0.08 ERA difference among starters for the season), the Astros will have to win this series with other aspects of the game.

The offenses are both very good contact teams that can draw a walk. However, the Astros are vastly superior at slugging the ball with a .031 higher isolated power. Overall the Astros are 22 percent better in wRC+ and 19 percent better in league adjusted offensive measure. Their ability to slug the ball in crucial spots will surely help put some crooked numbers on the board.

The overwhelming advantage for the Astros though is the bullpen. During the regular season the Astros had the second best bullpen, where the Nationals had the second worst. Their bullpen has been solidified though with the resurgence of the bionic arm in Daniel Hudson, Sean Doolittle returning to form, the elder statesman Fernando Rodney and the young flamethrower Tanner Rainey. But it is still a short pen that does not have a lot of experience in these situations.

Prediction: Astros in 6

I think the Astros will win in six games, all things considered. The only reason I do not think it is sooner is that the Astros struggles with RISP will bite them in a couple of games where they leave too many men stranded.

World Series MVP is a repeat for me: George Springer. His .637 slugging on fastballs this year is the reason why, coupled with George getting off to a hot start a game sooner than he did in 2017 due to Max Scherzer’s heavy use of his fastball and higher than league average zone and meatball rates.