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Houston Astros versus New York Yankees ALCS preview
The Houston Astros will once again face off against the New York Yankees in the ALCS. Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up against each other.
It was pretty much expected and probably what most baseball pundits wanted, the best two teams in the American League battling it out for the right to play in the World Series. Beginning Saturday evening, the Astros will host the Yankees in a rematch of the 2017 ALCS that went down to the wire in an epic seven-game series.
Houston and New York ended the season with the best records in the American League, with the Astros 107-55 record topping the Yankees 103-59 season. Houston didn’t clinch home-field advantage over New York until the very end of the season with just two games remaining.
There are a lot of similarities between these two teams, and I’m anticipating another knock-down, drag-out series like the one we experienced two years ago. So strap yourselves in for another rollercoaster ride of an ALCS battle between the Astros and the Yankees.
“I almost think the teams mirror each other with one exception: the Astros have the best starting pitching, but the Yankees have the best bullpen,” said former Yankees slugger and current FOX Sports analyst Alex Rodriguez. “So it’s a matter of who performs better and who executes the fundamentals.”
The two teams have faced each other seven times this year with the Astros taking the season series 4-3. The team playing at home seemed to have a definite advantage with Houston getting the sweep at Minute Maid Park and the Yankees taking three out of four on their turf, emphasizing the importance of that all-important home-field advantage in a series of this magnitude.
These two powerhouses ranked right up at the top of the Major Leagues with arguably the best offensive teams of the season. The Astros lead the Majors with an offensive OPS+ of 119 and the Yankees were right behind them in second place with a 118 OPS+. Houston also led the league with a 40.8 WAR while New York’s 32.7 was two spots below.
The Yankees were the top in scoring, totaling 943 runs, 23 more than the Astros scored on the season. They also take the edge over Houston in the home run category with 306 homers compared to the Astros 288.
But interestingly enough the Astros still had the best slugging percentage in the Majors at .495, slightly above the Yankees’ .490. The reason for this is the fact that the Astros had far more 2Bs and 3Bs by a margin of 351 to 307. The Astros slash line of .274/.352./.495 and .848 OPS beat out the Yankees .267/.339/.490 – OPS .829 across the board.
Where I see one of the biggest differences between the two teams is their strikeout and walk rates. Amazingly enough, the Astros lead the Majors in both categories. They have the highest BB% at 10.1% and their 18.2% strikeout rate is the lowest. In turn, the Yankees rank 12th in both statistics with a 9.1 BB% and a 23.0 K%.
Looking at all of these numbers and rates, I would have to give the Astros a slight edge on offense with solid all-around stats.
When a team has a starting rotation that consists of Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke, is it even fair to compare them to any other team? Well for argument’s sake, let’s take a look anyway.
The one-two punch of Verlander and Cole are simply unmatched in baseball today. They’re the top two candidates for the 2019 Cy Young Award and if you ask me, they should share it. They are #1 and #2 in the American League in ERA, WHIP, K/9IP, Ks and ERA+. Then when you add a pitcher like Greinke to that rotation just before the trade deadline, well, what can you say.
The Yankees have James Paxton and Domingo German as their top two starters, with J.A. Happ and Masahiro Tanaka following. None of these starters even show up in the top ten in the American League in most statistical categories other than in wins.
The Astros starting pitchers had the lowest ERA in the AL with a 3.61 while the Yankees’ 4.61 was almost a full run higher. The pitching WAR for the two team’s rotation wasn’t even close between the Astros and the Yankees with a 19.4 and a 10.6, respectively.
Astros starters have amassed a league-high 1063 strikeouts on the season, a full 279 Ks more than the Yankees rotation. The Astros own the best strikeout rate at 28.9% and one of the lowest in walks with 6.8%. The Yankees are middle of the pack with a 23.8 k% and a 7.3 BB%.
As far as the starting rotations between these two teams, I really don’t even see much of a comparison. I give the Astros an easy edge over the Yankees.
Roberto Osuna, Will Harris, and Ryan Pressly have bee the stalwarts of the bullpen this season. Hector Rondon and Josh James have played major roles, as well as Joe Smith once he came off of the IL. The rest of the relievers that have been used were a combination of call-ups and veteran pitchers that seemed to enter and exit through a revolving door due to various injuries sustained by several pitchers.
Osuna has been mostly the go-to closer for the Astros and led the League with 38 saves, which just so happens to be one save above Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman. He ended the regular season with 2.63 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP.
Pressly and Harris were solid setup men carrying ERAs of 2.32 and 1.50, respectively. James has gotten in a lot of work this season and owns an ERA of 4.77 as a reliever, but seems to have settled in nicely toward the end of the year earning him a spot on the postseason roster.
As mentioned above, Chapman has been the Yankees closer having a solid year with those 37 saves and an ERA of 2.21. Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino have each had really nice seasons with ERAs just below 2.00 and are reliable setup men for Chapman.
In the quote by Alex Rodriguez I referred to earlier, he stated that the Yankees had the better bullpen between the two teams. I’m not sure if I can agree with that. The Astros relievers led the league in several categories including WHIP, K-BB%, BAPIP and had the second-lowest ERA. So I’m going to have to give the Astros the nod over the Yankees in bullpen quality.
Next. Astros, Gerrit Cole blow past Rays to win ALDS. dark
Yes, I’m an Astros fan writing about the Astros, but as hard as I try to examine these two teams up against each other, I really do think the Astros are the better all-around team. As I stated before, it should be a wild ride. So, sit back and enjoy another postseason classic between these two MLB juggernauts.