Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays: ALDS playoffs preview

The 2019 postseason playoffs are upon us once again, and the Houston Astros have never been in the position they’re in this season.

What a season it’s been for the Astros! A franchise-record 107 wins, two potential Cy Young award winners in Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, an obvious choice for the Rookie of the Year Award in Yordan Alvarez, and an MVP type season from Alex Bregman. They ended up with the best overall record in the Major Leagues and now have home-field advantage throughout the entirety of the playoffs, starting with the Tampa Bay Rays.

But all the work starts over again as the Astros start the division series on Friday against the Rays. As we all know, the playoffs are a totally different animal. Ask the 2001 Seattle Mariners who won 116 games and lost in the first round. It’s the race to 11 wins, and it’s anyone’s game when it comes to the fight for the World Series Championship.

Let’s take a quick look at the two teams lineups, rotations, notable players, and what might push each team towards the verge of hoisting the commissioner’s trophy.

The Starting Rotations

The Astros:

ERA – 3.61, K – 1063, BAA – .218, IP – 907.1, BB – 251, OBP – .276

The Rays: 

ERA – 3.64, K – 796, BAA – .230, IPs – 702.1, BB – 191, OBP – .287

Two very similar teams, according to the stats. The only difference being the strikeout totals, which tends to be different when you have two workhorses named Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole notching over 300 each. Also, the fact that the Rays often deploy the opener method and also lost their ace Blake Snell mid-season to arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow.

Time will tell if Snell is able to pitch game one on Friday afternoon. He’s only pitched a total of six innings since July 21st. He last pitched on Sunday and was removed after two and one-third innings and 66 pitches. Charlie Morton pitched for the Rays in the AL wild-card game, so we could be looking at Tyler Glasnow getting the start for game one at Minute Maid Park, but it is still to be announced.

Both teams have quality rotations when healthy, but that is the keyword when looking at both teams, health. The Astros have been healthy all season, and the Rays have been hampered by injuries. When you’re facing a three-headed monster in Verlander, Cole and Zack Greinke, to start a series, you need all the advantages you can get opposing them, and the Rays have a lot of question marks going into the first round Friday.

The Bullpens

Astros:

ERA – 3.75, Saves- 47, IP – 555.0, BB – 197, K – 608, BAA – .226

Rays:

ERA – 3.66, Saves- 46, IP -772.0, BB – 262, K – 825, BAA – .231

Again, two teams that are very similar according to the numbers. The main difference in the relievers for both teams is based on how long the starting pitchers went into games and the actual use of the starting pitchers compared to using the opener method, as well as the injuries.

The Astros starters often went deeper into games allowing the bullpen to gain rest, while the Rays bullpen was far more taxed due to the lack of innings pitched by the rotation. During the first round of the playoffs, it can go either way.

One team has to worry about their starters being tired and overworked, and the other team has to worry about their bullpen being overworked. Both bullpens and rotations on the season had very good years, ranking among the top teams in baseball.

The Offense

Astros:

H – 1538, 2B – 323, 3B – 28, HR – 288, TB – 2781, RBI – 891

BA – .274, OBP – .352, SLG – .495, OPS – .848

Rays: 

H – 1427, 2B – 291, 3B – 29, HR – 217, TB – 2427, RBI – 730

BA – .254, OBP – .325, SLG – .431, OPS – .757

When you look at the statistics, they’re not really close. The Astros already had players like George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman, then they added Michael Brantley in the offseason. Mid-season they called up Yordan Alvarez. They are stacked. There is no break in this lineup.

The real factor in this series is going to be, can the Rays pitching keep it together long enough to stop this goliath of an offense. Can the Rays eke out 1-2 runs off of Verlander, Cole, or Greinke, and can they keep the Astros hitters at bay long enough to win the game? Will the Rays have enough pitching in their arsenal to hold off one of the best offenses of all time?

Crazier things have happened in a playoff series, but if the Rays are going to somehow pull off a major upset, they have to find some way to keep this train of hitters from getting up too early in the game to where it’s impossible to come back. Otherwise, this series will be short, sweet, and over in three games.