Astros: What would it take to re-sign Gerrit Cole?

Can They Make It Work?

If the Astros are going to bring Cole back, they’re going to have to find a way to fit his mega contract onto the books, and that will be tough to do. The Astros already have $156.4 million in guaranteed payroll obligations next season. Add in the estimated salaries of several players through arbitration, and that brings it to around $207.9 million in total payroll next season.

Verlander is due to make $33 million, while Greinke will make $35 million. Contract extensions for Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman kick in, with the two set to make $29 million and $13 million, respectively. George Springer, Carlos Correa and others will be due raises in arbitration, and Michael Brantley is also under contract for $16 million.

On top of that, both Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado are free agents, so the Astros will have to address the catcher position somehow. The bullpen may also need reinforcements, with Will Harris, Hector Rondon, Joe Smith and Collin McHugh all headed for free agency.

The Astros would undoubtedly have to find a trade partner to take on all of Josh Reddick‘s $13 million salary and then give the right field job to Kyle Tucker. That would help, but it still wouldn’t make up for $30 million-plus for Cole and whatever they commit to catchers and relievers.

Plus, adding Cole would make it significantly more difficult for the team to re-sign Springer, who’ll hit free agency after the 2020 season. Brantley’s contract comes off the books then, which will help, but Springer will undoubtedly cost much more than Brantley’s $16 million salary.

It may be a good problem to have, but it’s a problem nonetheless. Opening up the checkbook for Cole will most likely push the team’s payroll into luxury tax territory, which requires a team to pay a tax to the league on the amount by which they exceed the threshold. Just ask the Red Sox — it gets expensive quickly.

Still, I would expect the Astros to make whatever attempts they can make to bring Cole back next season. Just don’t be surprised if their current obligations make it nearly impossible for them to outbid other suitors.